Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre

Feb 28, 2024 | Threat Analysis, Threat Landscape

Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst

Read Time: 3 minutes 

On 27 February 2024, three individuals were charged with preparing an act of terrorism following an investigation into a suspected Extreme Right-Wing attack plot against an Islamic Education centre.{1} It is alleged that the individuals prepared for the attack by acquiring instructions on making a 3D-printed firearm. Following a search of the defendants’ homes, detectives reportedly found a 3D printer, a 3D-printed FGC-9 semi-automatic firearm, various decommissioned firearms, knives, and Nazi memorabilia.{2} The individuals had reportedly identified potential targets for the attack, including an Islamic Education Centre in Leeds, and each belonged to an online Extreme Right-Wing chat group in which they shared propaganda, documents, and provided plans and advice on the creation of weapons.{3} The investigation remains ongoing.{4}

Assessment

 

  • It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism would continue to emerge as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
    • It is likely that there is currently a heightened threat from individuals with links to Extreme Right-Wing ideology amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and associated protests in the UK. Since October 2023, individuals with links to Extreme Right-Wing ideology have counter-protested at pro-Palestine marches in the UK. In certain cases, demonstrations have turned violent. There is a realistic possibility that further individuals could mature to violence and that their actions could be designated as terrorism.
      • It is likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat would continue to evolve away from structured groups such as the proscribed organisation, National Action, to a more disparate threat from individuals or small cells.
        • It is almost certain that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist in the UK would have the intent and capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon, etc.
          • There is a realistic possibility that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack in the UK. E.g., Improvised Explosive Devices or Firearms. The complicated nature of plotting a high-sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunities for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.
            • It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack would target sites and individuals associated with the UK government and/or minority groups with protected characteristics. E.g., LGBTQIA+, migrant communities, religious minorities, etc.
              • It is likely that the construction of homemade weapons would continue to emerge as a vector of terrorism threat in the UK in the long term. The UK has witnessed a growing number of incidents and arrests linked to the production of 3D-printed firearms in recent years.
                • E,g., In 2022, authorities seized 17 3D-printed firearms, an increase from three in 2021.{5}
                  • E.g., Since 2020, there have been at least eight terrorism-related cases in the UK involving attempts to manufacture of acquire 3D-printed weapons. Seven of the eight cases related to the construction of 3D-printed firearms, another involved the construction of a drone.{6}

                Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 28 February 2024

                 

                PHIA Scale

                The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.

                  • Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
                  • Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
                  • Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
                  • Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
                  • Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
                  • Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
                  • Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.

                  Time Spans

                    • Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
                    • In the next 12 months.
                    • Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
                    • Long Term: 5+ Years.

                Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
                Threat Analyst

                Read Time: 3 minutes

                To receive regular updates about Terrorism Threat and Risk Management, please sign up to our newsletters now.

                Recently Published

                Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State

                UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced

                Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre

                Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism

                “Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                “Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot

                Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison

                Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation
                Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation

                Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel

                Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange
                Single Issue Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange

                Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot

                UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences
                Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences

                Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters
                State Threat Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters

                New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals
                Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

                New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals

                Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East
                Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East

                Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot
                Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot

                How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period
                Blog Security

                How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period

                Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris
                Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris

                2023 Annual Threat Report
                Annual Report Threat Landscape

                2023 Annual Threat Report

                Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack
                Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack

                Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences
                Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

                Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences