Wagner Group Proscribed as a Terrorist Organisation

• It is almost certain that the Russian state will maintain the intent to influence and destabilise the UK through third-party proxies, organised criminal groups, and covert action in the long term.

• There is a realistic possibility that Russia could take retaliatory action towards the UK, British citizens fighting in Ukraine, and British assets abroad as a result of the proscription of the Wagner Group. It is unlikely that any retaliatory actions related to the proscription of the Wagner Group would pose a significant physical threat to property or civilians. Instead, it would likely target individuals opposed to the Russian state or interfere with Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) through a cyber incident.

• At this time, it is unlikely that the proscription of the Wagner Group would have any tangible effect on the threat posed to the UK by the Wagner Group itself due to group’s primary focus on activity in sub-Saharan Africa and Ukraine.

• The UK government decision to proscribe the Wagner Group means that it is likely that other hostile foreign state actors could be deemed as meeting the threshold for proscription. E.g., Media reporting in 2023 has suggested that the Iranian State aligned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be considered for proscription by the UK government.[4] In the medium to long term, it is highly likely that other hostile foreign state aligned groups would be considered for proscription as terrorist groups. Any proscription of a state aligned actor would almost certainly lead to a significant increase in the terrorism threat environment due to the enhanced funding and capability of state actors.

• It is almost certain that the Wagner Group’s operational capability would be limited in the short term due to a lack of leadership and efforts made by the Russian state to take greater control of the group through the use of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.[5]

• There is a realistic possibility that rival private military companies could seek to exploit the death of Prigozhin to rival the Wagner Group in the medium term.[6] Media reporting suggests that, PMC Redut, a private military company controlled by Russia’s military intelligence service and active in Syria, is a likely successor to the Wagner Group.[7] Redut is not a proscribed organisation in the UK.

• It is likely that the Russo-Ukraine war will act as a driver for terrorism threat in the UK in the medium term. There is a realistic possibility that global terrorist networks could seek to exploit and gain access to the vast number of unregulated arms present in Ukraine and the ongoing refugee crisis in order to facilitate operational activity in Europe and the UK.

Intelligence Cut Off Date: 25 September 2023