Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
Tags: CONTEST 2023 | Counter-terrorism | Islamist | July 2023 MTU | Right-Wing | Risk Awareness | security | Terrorism Plots | United Kingdom
On 18 July 2023, the UK Government launched CONTEST 2023, an updated version of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy. CONTEST was first launched in 2003 and is made up of four key pillars; Prevent, Pursue, Protect, and Prepare. The strategy’s mission is to “reduce the risk from terrorism to the UK, its citizens and interests overseas, so that people can go about their lives freely and with confidence”.[1] As part of the updated strategy launch, Home Secretary Suella Braverman gave an update on the current UK terrorism threat landscape.
The Home Secretary’s speech can be found here: Counter-terrorism strategy (CONTEST) 2023 launch – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Some key findings included:
- Since 2018, there have been nine terrorist attacks in the UK.
- Since 2017, UK police and security services have disrupted 39 late-stage terrorist plots in the UK.
- In 2022, there were 166 arrests for terrorism-related activity. Over the same period, 232 people were in custody for terrorism-related offences.
- The five terrorist attacks that took place in the UK in 2017 are estimated to have cost up to £172 million in direct costs.
- At this time, the largest terrorist threat in the UK is posed by individuals or small groups who are acting outside of organised terrorist networks but who may be inspired or encouraged by them.
- At this time, Islamist terrorism remains the predominant threat to the UK, accounting for 67% of attacks since 2018 and approximately three quarters of MI5’s caseload.
- Global Islamist terror groups, including Islamic State and al-Qa’ida, maintain the intent to conduct attacks in the UK. However, cases of fixed ideological alignment or affiliation with a specific international organisation in the UK have diminished.
- Extreme Right-Wing terrorism has accounted for approximately 22% of attacks since 2018 and approximately one-quarter of MI5’s caseload.
- Left Wing, Anarchist, and Single-Issue Terrorism (LASIT) currently “represents a significantly smaller terrorist threat to the UK…and is not currently present in the UK at any significant scale”.
Assessment
- It is almost certain that Islamist-inspired terrorism will remain the principal terrorism threat to the UK in the long term.
- It is almost certain that Islamist-inspired terrorists maintain the intent and capability to conduct low-sophistication attacks in the UK. E.g., Vehicle as a Weapon and/or Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons.
- There is a realistic possibility that Islamist-inspired terrorists could have the capability to conduct high-sophistication attacks using methodologies such as Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or Firearms.
- It is highly likely that the predominant threat posed by global Islamist terrorist actors continues to be from online radicalisation of vulnerable UK-based individuals with the intent to inspire low-sophistication attacks in the UK. For example, on 10 July 2023, two individuals in the UK pleaded guilty to plotting to join Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) to fight in Afghanistan after being radicalised in 2022, completing applications to join the terrorist group, and promoting terrorist violence online.[2]
- It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will increase as a vector of UK terrorism threat in the next 12 months.
- Any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actor with the intent to conduct an attack would almost certainly have the capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack in the UK. E.g., Vehicle as a Weapon, Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, and/or Fire as a Weapon.
- It is highly likely that any attack conducted by an Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actor would target a specific high-profile individual, such as a pro-immigration politician, or minority communities and/or places of worship.
- At this time, although it is likely that Northern Ireland-Related Terrorist (NIRT) actors maintain the intent to conduct attacks against the UK mainland, it is highly unlikely that NIRT actors would have the capability to conduct attacks of the same sophistication as those conducted throughout the Troubles (approx. 1969-1998) against the UK mainland.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 19 July 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
Tags: CONTEST 2023 | Counter-terrorism | Islamist | July 2023 MTU | Right-Wing | Risk Awareness | security | Terrorism Plots | United Kingdom