Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
Two individuals have been sentenced for a total of 15 years for terrorism offences. The pair encouraged listeners of their “neo-Nazi online podcast” – Black Wolf Radio – to commit acts of terrorism against ethnic minorities.[1] The pair reportedly shared homophobic, racist, antisemitic, Islamophobic and misogynistic views and called for Prince Harry to be “prosecuted” and “judicially killed for treason”.[2] The pair also endorsed the 2016 murder of Jo Cox MP and praised the 2019 Christchurch terrorist attack. According to an investigation conducted by the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, one of the individuals had created an online “Radicalisation Library” containing more than 500 videos of Extreme Right-Wing speeches and propaganda documents.[3] Commander Dominic Murphy said, “the material…shared is exactly the kind that has the potential to draw vulnerable people – particularly young people – into terrorism”.[4]
Assessment
- It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will continue to emerge as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
- It is highly likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat has continued to evolve away from structured groups such as the proscribed organisation, National Action, to a more disparate online threat.
- It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors would have the intent and capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack in the UK at this time. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapon, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
- It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack would target sites and individuals associated with the UK government, online and traditional media companies, and minority groups with protected characteristics. E.g., LGBTQIA+, migrant communities, religious minorities, etc.
- It is almost certain that those aged 18 or younger will remain at risk of radicalisation in the long term as a result of the continued proliferation of easily accessible extremist content online. In the year ending 31 March 2023, those aged 15 to 20 accounted for the largest proportion of referrals to the UK government’s Prevent programme.[5] For the third year running, the number of referrals for Extreme Right-Wing concerns was greater than referrals for Islamist concerns.[6]
- It is highly likely that the ongoing refugee crisis and Israel-Hamas conflict will act as drivers of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat in the next 12 months. Throughout 2023, individuals gathered across the UK to demonstrate outside asylum seeker facilities in response to the ongoing refugee crisis. Since October 2023, individuals with links to Extreme Right-Wing ideologies have counter-protested at pro-Palestine marches in the UK. In both cases, certain demonstrations turned violent, with arrests being made for assault and violent disorder. There is a realistic possibility that further individuals could mature to violence and that their actions could be designated as terrorism.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 05 January 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Podcast duo jailed for terrorism offences following Met investigation | Metropolitan Police; Neo-Nazi podcast hosts who targeted Prince Harry and his son Archie jailed for terror offences | UK News | Sky News
[2] Ibid.
[3] Podcast duo jailed for terrorism offences following Met investigation | Metropolitan Police.
[4] Podcast duo jailed for terrorism offences following Met investigation | Metropolitan Police
[5] The Prevent programme is intended to stop people from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism by tackling the ideological causes of terrorism, intervening early to support those susceptible to radicalisation, and enabling people to disengage and rehabilitate
[6] New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals – Pool Reinsurance
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst