Author: Oliver Hair,
Junior Threat Analyst &
Calum Ronald, Senior Risk Consultant
Read Time: 2 minutes
On 23 April 2023, the UK government tested a phone alert that will be used to warn users if there is a danger to life nearby. While many users reported that the alert went off one minute earlier or later than planned, certain users did not receive the nationwide emergency alert at all. As of 25 April 2023, the UK government is investigating why the alert was not received by certain users. Emergency alerts are already used in several countries, including the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.[1]
How Could the Alert Help in Case of Emergency?
- An alert can be used to warn the public about dangerous situations, posing imminent threat to life, including fires, severe flooding, extreme weather, or terrorist attacks.
- Important information on how to stay safe during the emergency will be provided, either by emergency services or government departments responsible for dealing with the emergency.
- As the alerts are geographically based, if used during a terrorist incident, the government may be able to provide important lifesaving information, such as location of the attack and evacuation warnings.
The Current Terrorism Threat to the UK Mainland
- The UK terrorism threat level is SUBSTANTIAL. This means an attack is LIKELY.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK would be conducted by an individual actor or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
- There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the UK could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack. E.g., Improvised Explosive Device (IED) or Marauding Firearms Attack. However, UK police and security services continue to demonstrate the capability to disrupt more complex high-sophistication plots and threats.
- It is almost certain that Islamist Related Terrorism remains the most prominent threat to the UK.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 25 April 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Author: Oliver Hair,
Junior Threat Analyst &
Calum Ronald, Senior Risk Consultant