Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
- Darren Reynolds was found guilty of encouraging terrorism by calling for attacks on MPs. Reynolds reportedly ran an online Telegram group chat in which he called for Boris Johnson to be “eliminated” and praised the 2016 murder of Jo Cox MP.[2] Reynolds had also reportedly shared far-right literature and the manifestos of right-wing terrorists Anders Breivik and Brenton Tarrant online. Reynolds was sentenced to 12 years in prison. Reynolds met Christine Grayson on the online messaging platform, Telegram.
- Following her online contact with Reynolds, Grayson was found guilty of conspiracy to cause criminal damage by planning to destroy 5G masts between May and June 2022.[3] Grayson believed that 5G phone masts were being used to harm members of the public who had received the COVID-19 vaccine. Later, Grayson reportedly purchased two crossbows in preparation for what the pair allegedly believed to be the imminent collapse of society. Grayson was sentenced to 12 months in prison.
Assessment
- As individuals in the UK spend greater amounts of time online, and material related to issues widely considered as conspiratorial remain easily accessible, it is almost certain that misinformation will increasingly feature in the ideologies of terrorist actors seeking to conduct attacks in the UK.
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- Grayson had reportedly visited Telegram for the first time during COVID-19 lockdowns where she entered conversations critical of COVID-19 vaccines. Reynolds reportedly told the court that he had become interested in conspiracy theories after the 9/11 attacks by al-Qa’ida.[4]
- It is highly likely that a small number of individuals affiliated with misinformation would develop the intent to conduct terrorist attacks against property or people in the long term based on the misinformation of the theories they adhere to. These types of individual have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK, for example:
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- January 2023 – An individual inspired in-part by COVID-19-related conspiracy theories was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in prison for plotting a terror attack on phone, TV and radio masts across the UK. The individual planned to “topple the government” and believed that the COVID-19 vaccine would cause mass deaths and the breakdown of society.[5]
- It is almost certain that Reynolds’ terrorist intent was borne out of a range of ideologies that overlapped, converged – or even in some cases contradicted each other. It is almost certain that similar “salad-bar” terrorist actors, motivated by a range of ideologies, will continue to pose a threat to the UK in the long term.
- Issues related to major societal talking-points, such as, the environment, government, and technological advancement etc. will continue to contribute to the radicalisation of individuals from non-violent to violent ideological positions in the long term. This transition has been demonstrated in the aforementioned case in which one of the convicted individuals transitioned from peaceful means of action to plotting a violent act:
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- Media reporting suggests that Grayson began by collecting signatures to try and get a 5G mast removed from near her home. In June 2021, Grayson went on to discuss various ways to destroy 5G masts. On 20 June, Grayson asked Reynolds “can we do something like we said?…blow summit up”.[6]
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- On 19 July 2021, Reynolds reportedly posted on Telegram: “Protesting never solved anything. The only think that will work is the forced removal of all traitorous, paedophilic, deceitful, lying filth from government, civil, political, and judicial establishments”.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 14 June 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Conspiracy theorists dubbed ‘Bonnie and Clyde’ guilty of plotting to destroy 5G masts and encouraging attacks on MPs | UK News | Sky News
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Oliver Lewin: Engineer jailed over TV and radio mast terror plot – BBC News; COVID conspiracy theorist Oliver Lewin jailed for planning terror attack to ‘topple government’ | UK News | Sky News
[6] Conspiracy theorists dubbed ‘Bonnie and Clyde’ guilty of plotting to destroy 5G masts and encouraging attacks on MPs | UK News | Sky News
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst