Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 14 May 2024, three individuals were charged with terrorism offences following an alleged firearms plot targeting the Jewish community in the north-west of England {1}. Walid Saadoui and Amar Hussein were charged with the preparation of terrorist acts between 13 December 2023 and 09 May 2024. The charges against them alleges they “made arrangements for the purchase of delivery of firearms, conducted reconnaissance and made plans of attack” {2}. Bilel Saadoui pleaded not guilty to failing to disclose information about the alleged plans {3}.
The court heard that two of the individuals intended to target “the Jewish community in the North West of England and members of both law enforcement and military” to cause “multiple fatalities using automatic weapons” {4}. Reporting suggests that the individuals had attempted to obtain automatic weapons, a hand gun and ammunition, and had identified a safe house where the weapons could be stored. It remains unclear whether the individuals successfully obtained any weapons {5}.
Prosecutor Rebecca Walker stated that “by May 2024, had reached the point at which, they believed, they were in a position to launch their attack” {6}. The plot is alleged to have been inspired by Islamic State {7}. On 24 May 2024, Justice Baker announced a 12-week trial would take place from 07 October 2025 {8}.
Event Assessment
- It is likely that the threat posed to members of the Jewish community in the UK has increased as a result of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Reports of antisemitic incidents in the UK reached a record high in 2023. The Community Security Trust (CST) recorded reports of 4,103 anti-Jewish hate incidents in 2023, compared to 1,662 in 2022. Two-thirds of incidents happened after the 07 October attacks on Israel {9}. It is likely that the threat posed to members of the Jewish community will remain heightened in at least the short term.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted against the Jewish community in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual inspired by an Extreme Right-Wing or Islamist ideology due to the ideologically driven intent to conduct attacks against members of the Jewish community.
- As demonstrated by the above incident, it is highly likely that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against members of law enforcement and the military in the UK due to their symbolic value as highly visible representatives of the UK government.
- Whilst it is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks using firearms in the UK, it is highly likely that UK firearms legislation and border control processes have significantly reduced the capability of terrorist actors to access weaponry in the UK.
- However, it is likely that the construction of homemade weapons would continue to emerge as a vector of terrorism threat in the UK in the long term and could enable would-be terrorists to bypass conventional firearms legislation. The UK has witnessed a growing number of incidents and arrests linked to the production of 3D-printed firearms in recent years. Since 2020, there have been at least nine terrorism-related cases in the UK involving attempts to manufacture or acquire 3D-printed weapons {10}.
- As demonstrated by the above incident, it is highly likely that the predominant threat posed to the UK by Islamic State is currently the online radicalisation of vulnerable UK-based individuals, and the subsequent inspiration to conduct attacks in the UK.
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst