Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 27 February 2024, three individuals were charged with preparing an act of terrorism following an investigation into a suspected Extreme Right-Wing attack plot against an Islamic Education centre.{1} It is alleged that the individuals prepared for the attack by acquiring instructions on making a 3D-printed firearm. Following a search of the defendants’ homes, detectives reportedly found a 3D printer, a 3D-printed FGC-9 semi-automatic firearm, various decommissioned firearms, knives, and Nazi memorabilia.{2} The individuals had reportedly identified potential targets for the attack, including an Islamic Education Centre in Leeds, and each belonged to an online Extreme Right-Wing chat group in which they shared propaganda, documents, and provided plans and advice on the creation of weapons.{3} The investigation remains ongoing.{4}
Assessment
- It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism would continue to emerge as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
- It is likely that there is currently a heightened threat from individuals with links to Extreme Right-Wing ideology amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and associated protests in the UK. Since October 2023, individuals with links to Extreme Right-Wing ideology have counter-protested at pro-Palestine marches in the UK. In certain cases, demonstrations have turned violent. There is a realistic possibility that further individuals could mature to violence and that their actions could be designated as terrorism.
- It is likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat would continue to evolve away from structured groups such as the proscribed organisation, National Action, to a more disparate threat from individuals or small cells.
- It is almost certain that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist in the UK would have the intent and capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon, etc.
- There is a realistic possibility that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack in the UK. E.g., Improvised Explosive Devices or Firearms. The complicated nature of plotting a high-sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunities for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.
- It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack would target sites and individuals associated with the UK government and/or minority groups with protected characteristics. E.g., LGBTQIA+, migrant communities, religious minorities, etc.
- It is likely that the construction of homemade weapons would continue to emerge as a vector of terrorism threat in the UK in the long term. The UK has witnessed a growing number of incidents and arrests linked to the production of 3D-printed firearms in recent years.
- E,g., In 2022, authorities seized 17 3D-printed firearms, an increase from three in 2021.{5}
- E.g., Since 2020, there have been at least eight terrorism-related cases in the UK involving attempts to manufacture of acquire 3D-printed weapons. Seven of the eight cases related to the construction of 3D-printed firearms, another involved the construction of a drone.{6}
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 28 February 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst