Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 15 April 2024, an individual conducted a Bladed Weapons attack at a Sydney Church. The perpetrator targeted a bishop, a priest, and churchgoers during Mass at the Assyrian Christ The Good Shepherd Church. At least four people were injured, in addition to the perpetrator who was later arrested {1} {2}.
Australian police stated that the attack was a religiously motivated “terrorist act”, however, did not state the religion of the attacker. The perpetrator allegedly made comments to the bishop as he approached, which were “centred around religion”. The bishop is reportedly popular on social media and has previously received criticism for his divisive sermons {3}.
The incident was captured on a church livestream, accessible publicly online. On the evening of the attack, members of the public protested outside of the Church. Reporting suggests that certain members of the public clashed with police. Two officers were injured and 10 police cars were reportedly destroyed {4}.
The perpetrator has since been charged with “committing a terrorist act” {5}.
Event Assessment
- There is a realistic possibility that individuals could become inspired to conduct similar low sophistication attacks in the UK, having viewed images of the Sydney attack currently circulating online. Additionally, there is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors could seek to exploit the accessibility of the livestream in order to radicalise vulnerable individuals online.
- The above incident and associated protest demonstrate the potential for community tensions and confidence in the government to become strained following a terrorism-related incident. Reporting suggests that Australian police believe that the attack was conducted intentionally during the livestream in order to intimidate “those parishioners who were watching online” {6}.
- It is highly likely that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against churches in the UK as publicly accessible and highly visible symbols of the Christian faith. Terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks against symbols of the Christian faith in the UK, including:
- 2020 – London – An Islamist terrorist admitted to plotting to conduct a Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) attack against St. Paul’s Cathedral. The individual was reportedly the administrator for a significant pro-Islamic State social media channel and had urged attacks on targets across Europe. The individual was later sentenced to life imprisonment {7} {8}.
- It is highly likely that the threat posed to churches in the UK would be dynamic and dependant on the size and reputation of any given church. E.g., Larger and more renowned churches, such as St. Paul’s Cathedral, would almost certainly be at a greater risk of a terrorism-related incident than a rural village church.
- Although it remains unclear if the bishop in the incident above was targeted specifically, there is a realistic possibility that that the presence of high-profile or contentious guest speakers could increase the threat posed to any church in the UK. Terrorist actors in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent to target Christian preachers, including:
- 2022 – London – An Islamist terrorist was intercepted whilst in a taxi from Brighton to Lewisham, South London, on the way to buy a firearm. The perpetrator had intended to target a Christian speaker at Speakers’ Corner in Hyde Park using the firearm. The individual was later sentenced to at least 16 years in prison {9}.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted an individual or small cell using a low sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapon, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 22 April 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst