Terror Suspect Escapes from Wandsworth Prison

• Prior to his original arrest in January 2023, the individual had formerly been a serving soldier in the British Army since 2018. However, media reporting suggests that it is highly unlikely that the individual posed any credible threat to the UK public after escaping from prison. Following his escape, the Head of the Met Police Counter Terrorism Command stated that there was not “any reason to believe that pose a threat to the wider public”.[5] It remains unclear if the individual had the intent to reoffend while out of prison.
• It is highly likely that recent reductions in prison staffing levels have impacted the ability of prison staff to target terrorism-related activity in prisons. This could include activity such as radicalisation, collaboration between organised crime and terrorism offenders, and the establishment of terrorist networks in prisons, etc. In April 2022, the government Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation, highlighted that prisons are “often understaffed” and that “there is an obvious risk of staff being unable to observe, or unable or unwilling to intervene” in terrorism-related activity at sites across the UK.[6]
• As of June 2023, there were 234 people in custody in the UK for terrorism-related offences. 65% of those currently in custody for terrorism-connected offences are reported to adhere to an Islamist ideology while 27% adhere to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology. It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism will remain the primary domestic terrorist threat in the long-term.[7]
• It is almost certain that hostile foreign states will maintain the intent to influence and destabilise the UK through third-party proxies, organised criminal groups, and covert action in the long term. In February 2023, the head of counter-terrorism policing, revealed that the number of investigations into hostile state threats being carried out by counter-terrorism police had “quadrupled” in the last two years.[8]
• Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct covert and malicious activity for hostile states, including:
  • • On 26 September 2023, five individuals were charged with “conspiring to collect information intended to be directly or indirectly useful to an enemy for the purpose prejudicial to the safety and interest of the state” between August 2020 and February 2023.[9] The accused are alleged to have been working in an operational spy cell for the Russian state.[10]
    • In March 2023, a UK parliament researcher was arrested under anti-espionage laws amid claims he was spying for China. Media reporting suggests that the researcher had access to several Conservative MPs. The individual has since claimed he is “completely innocent”. The investigation continues.[11]
•  It is almost certain that the Iranian state has dedicated considerable efforts to making connections within the UK in an attempt to gain political influence and intimidate and influence citizens of the UK. In February 2023, Scotland Yard revealed that between January 2022 and February 2023 the UK police and security services had foiled 15 plots to kidnap or kill UK-based individuals.[12]

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 27 September 2023