School Student Given Youth Rehabilitation Order  

• It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will continue to emerge as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.  

• It is likely that a growing number of children and young adults in the UK would be susceptible to radicalisation by Extreme Right-Wing ideologies. Reporting suggests that there has been a significant increase in the radicalisation of young adults and children by Extreme Right-Wing material online {4}. In the year ending March 2023, those aged 14 years and under accounted for the largest proportion of prevent referrals for Extreme Right-Wing terrorism {5}. 

• It is highly likely that the majority of individuals that adhere to tenets of Extreme Right-Wing ideology would share similar ideological worldviews as terrorist actors, but would not have the intent to act on them. E.g., Reporting suggests that whilst the number of individuals convicted for Extreme Right-Wing-related offences has steadily increased since 2018, there has not been a proportional rise in the number of plots and/or successful attacks in the same period {6}. 

• There is a realistic possibility that both an increase in focus by the security services and a heightened public awareness of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism could have contributed to the increase in the number of referrals and investigations related to the ideology {7}{8}. MI5 took on full primacy for Extreme Right-Wing terrorism in April 2020 {9}. 

• The individual’s construction of a petrol bomb demonstrates the ease at which individuals in the UK could conduct terrorist attacks using Fire as a Weapon due to the readily available nature of the materials necessary to construct such a device. Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks using Fire as a Weapon in the UK, including:  
  • 2023 – Nottingham – William Howitt, 27, of Nottinghamshire, was sentenced to four years and ten months imprisonment for preparing to commit a terrorist attack. Howitt had written a comprehensive plan to commit a Fire as a Weapon attack at an independent bookshop in Nottingham. The shop was identified as a target by Howitt due to the views it allegedly represented – left-of-centre political and social issues {10}. 
  • 2022 – Dover – Andrew Leak, 66, of High Wycombe, conducted a Fire as a Weapon attack against a migrant centre in Dover. Leak threw at least two “crude” incendiary devices at the Western Jet Foil site in Kent. Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE) later revealed that the attack was motivated by an Extreme Right-Wing terrorist ideology {11}.  
• Evidence given during the individual’s trial showed he held a focused and intentionally negative attitude toward the Jewish community. For example, a drawing by the individual was accompanied by “6MWE” – a reference to the Holocaust meaning “six million was not enough” {12}. It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against individuals and/or sites associated with the Jewish community in the UK.  

• Previous terrorist attacks in the UK have demonstrated the almost certain intent and capability of certain individuals adhering to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology to conduct low-sophistication attacks in the UK. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.  

• There is a realistic possibility that individuals adhering to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology could have the capability to conduct high-sophistication attacks at this time. E.g., Improvised Explosive Device (IED), Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED), or Firearms. However, the complicated nature of plotting a high-sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunity for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.  

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 17 July 2024