Stabbing Rampage at Sydney Shopping Centre

• The use of a Bladed Weapon to conduct a marauding attack is representative of the current terrorism threat landscape in the UK. It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK would be conducted by an individual or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, or Fire as a Weapon.
• On 19 April 2024, the Westfield Bondi Junction shopping centre reopened with a heightened security and police presence. It remains unclear whether all tenants within the shopping centre reopened. The six-day closure of the entire shopping centre demonstrates the possible business interruption a low sophistication terrorist attack could have on sites in the UK as police maintain a cordon in order to investigate an attack.
• It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against shopping centres in the UK due to the high footfall attracted to shopping centre sites as well as their publicly accessible nature. For further assessment on the threat posed to Shopping Centres, read Pool Re Solutions’ sector-specific threat assessment for Shopping Centres, here.
• Terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks against shopping centres in the UK, including:
  • 2019 – Manchester – An individual conducted a Bladed Weapons attack against three members of the public at the Arndale Centre, Manchester. The individual was originally held under the Terrorism Act, however, no ideological motive was found and the individual was subsequently detained under the Mental Health Act and deemed unfit for trial {6}.
  • 2017 – London – Police disrupted an Islamist terrorist cell plotting to use children to target Westfield Shopping Centre. Four individuals were convicted for the plot which intended to use Firearms, Bladed Weapons, Improvised Explosive Devices, and Vehicles as Weapons {7}.
  • 2015 – London – Police foiled a plot to target Westfield Shopping Centre in Shepherd’s Bush, London. Two individuals intended to conduct Improvised Explosive Device attacks on the 10 year anniversary of the 7/7 attacks. The individuals had reportedly stockpiled over 10kg of chemical precursor and tested explosives in their back garden on at least two occasions. Reporting suggests that at time of arrest, one of the individuals possessed the ingredients, knowledge, and experience to construct a viable device within days {8}.
• Although the motivation for the attack remains unclear, the perpetrator’s “obvious” targeting of women demonstrates that there is a realistic possibility that the headline incident could have been motivated by an incel ideology. Although not a recognised terrorist ideology in the UK, short for involuntary celibate, incels can broadly be defined as a group of people who are unable to find sexual partners, despite wanting them. A small subsection of those who adhere to incel ideology believe violence against women to be justified.
• In the medium term, there is a realistic possibility that individuals in the UK adhering to an incel ideology could mature to violence that could be considered terrorism. For further assessment and understanding on incel ideology, listen to Pool Re’s latest episode of Totally Terrorism with Professor Joe Whittaker here.
• Whilst, at this time, there have not been any designated terrorist attacks related to incel ideology in the UK, individuals affiliated to an incel ideology have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks globally, including:
  • 2021 – UK – An individual conducted a marauding firearms attack in Plymouth. There were five fatalities. An inquest later found that the individual had “explored on numerous occasions mass killings and referred to people idolised in the incel community for perpetrating mass killings”, including Elliot Rodger, the perpetrator of a 2014 US mass killing {9}.
  • 2020 – Canada – An individual conducted a Bladed Weapons attack against a massage parlour. The individual reportedly used a machete to target women at the facility. There was one fatality. The attack was the first officially prosecuted act of terrorism motivated by the online incel subculture in the history of Canada {10} {11}.
  • 2018 – Canada – An individual conducted a Vehicle as a Weapon attack against members of the public in Toronto, Canada. There were 10 fatalities and 16 others were injured. Reporting suggests that the individual was motivated by a hatred for women and had previously admitted to being inspired by an incel ideology {12} {13}.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 19 April 2024