Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 14 January 2024, the Metropolitan Police arrested six individuals over a plot to disrupt the London Stock Exchange. It is alleged that individuals from Palestine Action intended to target the London Stock Exchange, causing damage and “locking on” in order to prevent the building from opening.[1] The group reportedly intended to climb on top of two revolving doors at the front of the building with red paint-filled fire extinguishers, before locking their necks to the entrance using bike locks. Other activists reportedly intended to lock themselves to one another in front of the building’s main and back entrances.[2] It is alleged that the plot’s leader stated that the incident was “the start of a week of action against different institutions in Britain that are complicit of facilitating Israeli apartheid against the Palestinians”.[3] The investigation reportedly was launched from information passed to the Metropolitan Police by the Daily Express on 12 January 2024 after a reporter posed as a potential new member of the group.[4] The investigation remains ongoing.
Assessment
- It is almost certain that Palestine Action would have the intent to increase the frequency and severity of its Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) campaign amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and continue to pose a significant threat to business continuity and security at sites with links to the state of Israel across the UK.
- It is almost certain that Palestine Action group would continue to aim the majority of its Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) campaign against Elbit Systems and affiliated businesses in the medium to long term. The group alleges that Elbit Systems is the largest weapons provider for the Israeli military and has targeted the organisation consistently as part of its “Shut Elbit Down” campaign.
- Activists from Palestine Action have previously conducted extremely disruptive and, at times violent, protests at targeted sites across the UK, including:
- 2023 – Wales – An activist affiliated with Palestine Action was convicted of conspiracy to commit criminal damage following a pro-Palestine protest at the factory of an electronics manufacturer in eastern Wales in December 2022. The activists reportedly entered the factory floor before smashing computer screens, spraying paint, and setting off smoke grenades. The protest reportedly caused up to £1.2 million of damage.[5]
- There is a realistic possibility that certain individuals associated with Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) protest groups could mature to violence in the long term if and when their demands are not met. It is highly likely that any protest-related terrorist attack would be conducted by an individual affiliated with, but not directed by, an organised protest group.
- To be designated as terrorism, it is almost certain that any violent protest act would have to be an act so severe that it cannot be ignored politically.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist act conducted by an individual affiliated with an organised protest group would be conducted against buildings or other infrastructure. It is highly unlikely that individuals affiliated with an organised protest group would target members of the public at this time.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 15 January 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Palestine Action is a UK protest group that uses Non-Violent Direction Action (NVDA) protest to target organisations and businesses with links to the Israel-Palestine conflict; Six arrested over plot to disrupt London Stock Exchange | Metropolitan Police
[2] Six arrested over suspected plot to disrupt London Stock Exchange | UK news | The Guardian
[3] Six arrested over plot to disrupt London Stock Exchange | Metropolitan Police; Pro-Palestine mob plotting UK economic chaos by ‘shutting down’ London Stock Exchange | UK | News | Express.co.uk
[4] Ibid.
[5] Activist convicted of conspiracy to commit criminal damage whilst protesting for Palestine Action Group – Pool Reinsurance
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst