Author: Oliver Hair,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 5 minutes
On 26 April 2023, US officials confirmed that a senior leader within Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) responsible for the planning of the 2021 Kabul Airport attack was killed in an operation conducted by the Afghan Taliban in April 2023.[1] ISKP is the Afghan affiliate of Islamic State (IS) and has routinely conducted attacks throughout the region since the Taliban takeover in 2021.[2] The 2021 Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) attack at Kabul Airport killed 170 civilians and 13 US soldiers during the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan.[3]
On 30 April 2023, Turkey’s President announced that the leader of Islamic State in Syria (ISIS), Abu Hussein al Qurashi, was killed in an operation conducted by Turkish intelligence services in the north Syrian town of Jandaris.[4] al Qurashi allegedly detonated a Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) during a Turkish special forces raid. al Qurashi was elected leader of ISIS in November 2022 after the death of his predecessor Abu Hasan al Hashimi al Qurashi. He is the third Islamic State leader since February 2022 to have been killed in counterterrorism operations against the group.[5]
The Threat within Afghanistan
- It is highly likely that the 2021 withdrawal of allied troops from Afghanistan has created a more permissive environment for terrorism-related activity and significantly limited the ability of the West to target terrorist actors in Afghanistan. This has resulted in regular terrorist attacks throughout the region by groups including ISKP.
- It is almost certain that terrorist groups have exploited instability in the region to enhance their own operational capability and planning since approximately the 1990s. Recent US intelligence leaks revealed that as of February 2023, Pentagon officials had uncovered 15 plots coordinated by Islamic State leaders in Afghanistan. The leaked files revealed plans to conduct attacks against “embassies, churches, business centres and the [2022] FIFA World Cup”.[7]
- It is highly unlikely that the Afghan Taliban currently has the capability to contain all foreign militant groups within Afghanistan. Media reporting suggests that the ongoing international sanctions against the Taliban and the withdrawal of international aid to Afghanistan has limited the Taliban’s ability to finance effective counter-insurgency operations and security apparatus throughout the country.[8]
- It is highly likely that ISKP will remain a long-term threat within Afghanistan and that the Afghan Taliban would maintain the intent to conduct operations against the group:
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- Since August 2021, reporting suggests that ISKP has committed approximately 330 attacks in Afghanistan. In the same period, it is alleged that the group’s attacks have led to the death of more than 1,800 persons.[9]
- Although both groups practice an extreme version of Sunni Islam and defend the use of violence in pursuit of their goals, Islamic State have demonstrated a far more extreme ideological interpretation of Sunni Islam. Islamic State view Shia Muslims as legitimate targets while the Taliban do not.[10]
- There is a realistic possibility that the Taliban could attempt to use its campaign against ISKP to boost its legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.[11]
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- There is a realistic possibility that Afghanistan has once again become a safe-haven for al-Qa’ida senior leadership. While the Taliban continues to fight against insurgent groups including ISKP, there is a realistic possibility that al-Qa’ida senior leadership could exploit their long-term relationship with the Taliban to use Afghanistan as a base of operations for terrorism-related activity.[12]
The Threat from Islamic State
- In comparison to the high-level of operational capability and territory the group controlled at its peak (approx. 2015-2017), it is highly unlikely that Islamic State and its affiliates would regain a comparable level of strength in the medium term due to ongoing counterterrorism operations against the group’s senior leadership.
- It is unlikely that there is currently a leader within Islamic State with the level of credibility and expertise necessary for any such rebuild at this time. Counterterrorism operations have previously resulted in the death of several senior leadership figures within the group, including:
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- April 2023 – Khalid ‘Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri – A US drone strike killed a senior Islamic State leader in Syria responsible for planning attacks in Europe and developing the leadership structure of the group.[13]
- February 2023 – Hamza al-Homsi – A helicopter raid by US Special Operations forces in northern Syria killed an Islamic State official described as an “operational planner responsible for planning terrorist attacks in the Middle East and Europe”.[14]
- October 2022 – Abu al Hassan al Hashimi al Qurayshi – The leader of Islamic State was killed during an operation conducted by Syrian rebels in southern Syria.[15]
- February 2022 – Maher al-Agal – A senior Islamic State operative responsible for developing the group’s networks outside of Iraq and Syria was killed in a US drone strike in northwest Syria.[16]
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- Media reporting suggests that the remaining Islamic State “Caliphs” have a limited media footprint and are currently avoiding communicating with the group’s followers in order to avoid capture or assassination.[17] However, it is likely that Islamic State maintain a large enough support base to withstand leadership losses in the short term.
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- In Iraq and Syria, it is estimated that Islamic State maintains between 5,000-7,000 active members. Media reporting suggests approximately half of these are fighters.[18]
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- It is likely that limited coordination between the remaining Islamic State “Caliphs” has significantly limited the group’s capability to project a direct and coordinated threat to the UK at this time.
The Threat to the UK
- Terrorist actors currently operating in the Middle East and Central Asia maintain the intent to project a major direct terrorist threat to the UK. E.g., according to US intelligence leaks, ISKP maintain the intent to conduct attacks against Western interests and conduct “aspirational plotting” in Afghanistan as a base of operations.[6]
- At this time, it is unlikely that groups such as Islamic State and al-Qa’ida would have the capability to project a major directed threat toward the UK. Instead, it is highly likely that any terrorist networks currently operating across the Middle East and Central Asia are focused on accessible regional targets.
- It is highly likely that the predominant threat currently posed by global terrorist actors to the UK is from the online radicalisation of vulnerable UK-based individuals, and the subsequent inspiration to conduct low-sophistication attacks within the UK.
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] US had ‘no involvement’ in Taliban killing of Kabul bombing mastermind, White House says | The Independent; Taliban kills ISIS-K leader behind 2021 Afghanistan airport attack that left 13 Americans dead, U.S. officials say – CBS News
[2] Taliban kill Islamic State leader who masterminded Kabul airport bombing that left 13 US service members dead | UK News | Sky News
[3] Taliban kill IS leader behind Kabul airport bombing – BBC News
[4] Islamic State leader in Syria killed by Turkish intelligence services, says President Erdogan | World News | Sky News
[5] Exclusive: Turkish raid prompted ISIS leader to detonate suicide vest | Reuters; IntelBrief: Another ISIS Leader is Eliminated as Islamic State Struggles to Maintain Core – The Soufan Center
[6] Afghanistan has become a terrorism staging ground again, leak reveals – The Washington Post
[7]Afghanistan has become a terrorism staging ground again, leak reveals – The Washington Post
[8]Afghanistan’s Security Challenges under the Taliban | Crisis Group; Explained: the relationship between the Taliban and Isis | The Week UK
[9]IntelBrief: Back to the Future in Afghanistan? – The Soufan Center
[10]Explained: the relationship between the Taliban and Isis | The Week UK
[11]What is the difference between the Taliban and Isis? | The Independent; Taliban seek to prove legitimacy through anti-IS campaign – Asian News from UK (asianlite.com)
[12] The Haqqani Network has long been the primary connection between the Taliban and al-Qa’ida senior leadership. Media reporting suggests that Ayman al-Zawahiri – the former Emir of al-Qa’ida – was residing in the house of a network member when he was killed in Afghanistan in July 2022; Zawahiri’s Death and What’s Next for al Qaeda (csis.org); The Taliban in Afghanistan (cfr.org)
[13] Islamic State leader ‘who planned attacks on Europe’ killed in Syria by US strike | World News | Sky News
[14] Islamic State senior leader killed during US helicopter raid in Syria | World News | Sky News
[15] Islamic State’s second leader of the year Abu al Hassan al Hashimi al Qurayshi killed in battle | World News | Sky News
[16] Maher al-Agal: Islamic State leader in Syria killed in US drone strike | World News | Sky News
[17] IntelBrief: Another ISIS Leader is Eliminated as Islamic State Struggles to Maintain Core – The Soufan Center
[18] IntelBrief: The Current State of Islamic State – The Soufan Center
Author: Oliver Hair,
Junior Threat Analyst