Executive Summary
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It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will remain a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
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It is highly likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat has evolved away from structured groups to a more disparate online threat.
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It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack conducted in the UK would be conducted by an individual. Between 1999 and 2022, all but two of the 14 attacks related to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology were conducted by individuals.
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It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors would currently have the intent and capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack in the UK. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
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It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack conducted at this time would target sites and individuals considered to be at odds with an Extreme Right-Wing ideological worldview. Previous examples include, targets associated with the UK government, online and traditional media companies, and minority groups with protected characteristics.
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It is almost certain that the current debate surrounding migration to the UK and ongoing cost-of-living crises would act as drivers of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat in the short to medium term as vulnerable individuals become radicalised, and in the worst case, inspired to conduct attacks.
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It is highly likely that those aged 18 or younger will remain at risk of radicalisation by Extreme Right-Wing ideologues in the long term as a result of the continued proliferation of easily accessible online content and the increase in time spent online by children and young adults in the UK.
Introduction
- Extreme Right-Wing terrorism has emerged as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in recent years. In 2018, it was decided that MI5 would take over from Counter Terrorism Policing as lead for Extreme Right-Wing terrorism, assessing it alongside Islamist terrorism, and forming part of the overall UK threat level.
- In August 2024, Ipsos polling revealed that 73% of Britons were concerned about right wing extremism, 11 percentage points higher than when the same questions were asked in March 2024. Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks in the UK, damaging UK property and people.
- This report seeks to explain and assess:
- What is Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism?
- Who are the Extreme Right-Wing?
- Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism and online spaces.
- Drivers and targets of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism in the UK.
- This article does not discuss the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks; instead, it highlights certain factors that could influence the terrorism threat landscape in the UK in the long term. Any reference to the UK is in reference to the UK mainland.