November Strategic Threat Assessment

• On 04 October 2024, Cameron Finnigan, 19-years-old, of Horsham, UK, admitted to five charges, including one of possession of a document for terrorist purposes. Finnigan had allegedly been preparing an attack against a “single homeless individual” who was living in a tent. The attack was to be livestreamed to a group of Finnigan’s online associates. Finnigan was allegedly involved in a range of online extremist groups, including a pseudo-satanist online group, 764. 764 is closely associated with the Order of Nine Angles (09A), a militant accelerationist movement. Individuals associated with these groups engage in heinous acts in order to bring about societal decline {1}{2}{3}{4}{5}.

• On 08 October 2024, Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27-years-old, was arrested for conspiring to commit a terrorist attack on the day of the US election in November 2024. Tawhedi is reportedly a citizen of Afghanistan but had been living in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. FBI Director Christopher Wray stated Tawhedi was motivated by the Islamic State (IS). Tawhedi had made plans to purchase two AK-47 assault rifles, ten magazines, and 500 rounds of ammunition to target “large gatherings of people”. According to two senior US officials, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an affiliate of Islamic State in Afghanistan, had directed the plot {6}{7}{8}.

• On 08 October 2024, a 22-year-old Afghan national was arrested in France. The individual is charged with planning a terror attack against a football stadium or shopping centre on behalf of Islamic State. Reporting suggests that the individual is a relative of Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi. However, this has yet to be confirmed. Both the plots in France and America were to occur on the same day, 05 November 2024 {9}.

• On 14 October 2024, Jack Robinson, 20-years-old, of Portsmouth, UK, was sentenced to six years and six months in prison for attempting to manufacture a weapon and possessing documents that could be used for preparing an act of terrorism. Robinson had reportedly downloaded more than 500 documents containing information on how to assemble weapons and 3D-printed guns and was at an “advanced stage” of building a semi-automatic rifle and accompanying ammunition. He was reportedly motivated by an Extreme Right-Wing ideology {10}{11}{12}.

• On 24 October 2024, Gabriel Budasz, 24, of Weston-Super-Mare, UK, was found guilty of encouraging terrorism and the dissemination of a terrorist publication. Budasz spread racist, homophobic and antisemitic statements online as well as sharing a video containing step-by-step instructions on how to make a viable Improvised Explosive Device (IED). A 3D-printer and 3D-printed weapon were found at Budasz’s home as well as a range of Extreme Right-Wing material {13}.

• On 25 October 2024, Callum Parslow, 32, was found guilty of attempted murder following a Bladed Weapons attack against a man on 02 April 2024. Parslow had planned to kill migrants housed by the UK government at the Pear Tree Inn, Worchester. Parslow asked the victim where he was from and then proceeded to stab him with a £770 “specialist” knife he had purchased online. Parslow was inspired by an Extreme Right-Wing ideology and had written his own terrorist “manifesto” which he attempted to upload to the social media platform, X, after his attack {14}.

• It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the predominant terrorist threat to the UK and that organised overseas terrorist groups maintain the intent to conduct attacks against the UK. On 08 October 2024, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum revealed that between September and October 2024, more than a third of MI5’s top priority investigations had some connection to organised overseas terrorist groups {15}.

• It is almost certain that Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) are currently the most operationally capable organised overseas terrorist group. ISKP have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct sophisticated, directed attacks externally, including the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, and the January 2024 attack in Iran at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani. It is almost certain that ISKP would have the intent to conduct an attack against the UK and other Western countries at this time.

• It is almost certain that ISKP also maintain the intent and capability to radicalise vulnerable individuals to conduct attacks in the UK and Western Europe. In August 2024, a disrupted plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria, was linked to ISKP. Austrian authorities reported that the main suspect had pledged allegiance to the group and had been consuming their propaganda online {16}. In May 2024, three individuals were arrested and charged with terrorism offences following an alleged Islamic State-inspired firearms plot targeting the Jewish community in the north-west of England {17}.

• While there has only been one successful terrorist attack in the UK where the Israel-Hamas conflict was cited as the primary motivation, it is almost certain that the protracted crises in the Middle East will remain a driver of terrorism threat throughout the UK and Western Europe as global terrorist networks seek to exploit the conflict to promote their hateful ideologies and encourage their followers to conduct violent acts in the UK {18}.

• It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will remain a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term. For more information on the current state of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism in the UK, see Pool Re Solutions’ latest deep-dive report, here.

• As demonstrated by Callum Parslow’s attack, it is almost certain that the current debate surrounding migration to the UK and ongoing cost-of-living crises would act as drivers of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat in the short to medium term. Prior to his attack, Parslow had researched hotels being used to house asylum seekers and told the jury that he went to the hotel with the intention of stabbing “one of the Channel migrants” in protest against small boat crossings. Reporting suggests Parslow was also in the process of being evicted from his flat prior to the attack, having left his job {19}.

• It is highly likely that those aged 18 or younger will remain at risk of radicalisation by Extreme Right-Wing ideologies in the long term. When police first arrested Jack Robinson in February 2023 he was 18 and had accessed “material (that) glorifie(d) the killing of Jews” as well as 810 indecent images of children {20}. On 08 October 2024, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum revealed that 13% of those now being investigated by MI5 for involvement in UK terrorism are under the age of 18 {21}.

• The sentencing of two individuals for terrorism offences related to the possession of 3D-printed weapons and associated materials demonstrates that it is likely that 3D-printed weapons present an emerging terrorist threat to the UK. Since 2020, there have been at least eleven terrorism-related cases in the UK involving attempts to manufacture or acquire 3D-printed weapons {22}.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would seek to target members of the public within crowded, publicly accessible locations, rather than property.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK would be conducted using a low-sophistication methodology due to the ease of access to such weaponry and lack of training needed. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 29 October 2024