New IRA Collaborated with Organised Crime Groups

• The link between the New IRA and criminality has enabled Northern Ireland Related Terrorism (“NIRT”) actors to increase capability and better evade detection by the police and security services. Collusion between paramilitary groups and criminality in Northern Ireland has been labelled “The Firm” and continues to play a key role in the facilitation of Northern Irish terrorism. It is alleged that DCI Caldwell had played a prominent role in investigating “The Firm” which led to his targeting as a “common enemy” of groups linked to crime and/or terrorism.[2]
• It is almost certain that groups such as the New IRA will continue to engage and facilitate criminal activity in order to access weaponry, resources, and funding in the long term.

• As of 28 March 2023, the national terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland was raised to SEVERE following the attempted murder of DCI Caldwell. This means an attack is HIGHLY LIKELY. On 11 April 2023, four pipe bombs were removed from a cemetery in Londonderry by Police, evidencing the heightened threat.

• The Northern Ireland threat level is a separate metric from the UK mainland threat level. The threat to the UK mainland remains SUBSTANTIAL. This means an attack on the UK mainland is assessed to be LIKELY.

• Active NIRT actors maintain the intent to conduct attacks against members of the security services and police in Northern Ireland. It is highly likely that NIRT actors would have the capability to conduct small targeted attacks in Northern Ireland using firearms and/or small improvised or military-grade explosive devices.

• It is highly likely that any NIRT attack in Northern Ireland would target specific individuals such as police, military personnel, security services, politicians, or journalists. It is highly unlikely that NIRT actors would conduct indiscriminate attacks against the public at this time.
• It is almost certain that NIRT actors would have the intent to target infrastructure on the UK mainland. However, due to the reduced capability of NIRT actors and the complexity of facilitating attacks on the UK mainland, it is highly unlikely that NIRT actors would prioritise conducting a terrorist attack on the UK mainland at this time. Instead, it is almost certain that NIRT actors will prioritise conducting terrorism and crime-related activity within Northern Ireland in the medium term.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 27 June 2023