New Home Office Figures Released

General

• There were 166 arrests for terrorism-related activity in the year ending 31 December 2022, 19 fewer than the previous year.
• The number of arrests for terrorism-related activity fell by 10% from the previous year and was the lowest number of terrorism-related arrests recorded since 2010.

Demographics of Persons Arrested

• The majority of those arrested for terrorism-related activity considered themselves to be British or British dual-nationality.
• The number of those arrested aged 17 years old or younger increased from 20 to 32.
• The number of those arrested aged 18 to 20 years old increased from 17 to 28.

Persons in Custody

• 26% of those serving custodial sentences for committing terrorism-related offences were categorised as holding extreme right-wing views. The number of individuals in custody categorised as holding extreme right-wing ideologies has more than doubled since December 2018.
• The remaining 8% of prisoners serving custodial sentences for committing terrorism-related offences were categorised as holding beliefs related to “other ideologies”.[1]

• It is almost certain that Islamist-inspired terrorism will remain the principal terrorism threat to the UK in the long term, demonstrated by the finding that the majority of individuals held in UK custody for terrorism-related offences are currently categorised as holding Islamist-extremist views.
  • It is almost certain that Islamist-inspired terrorists maintain the intent and capability to conduct low-sophistication attacks in the UK. E.g., Vehicle as a Weapon and/or Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons attacks at sites across the UK.
• There is a realistic possibility that Islamist-inspired terrorists could have the capability to conduct high-sophistication attacks using methodologies such as Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or Firearms.
• Demonstrated by the increase in the number of imprisoned individuals categorised as holding extreme right-wing views in the past five years, it is highly likely that extreme right-wing terrorism will increase as a vector of UK terrorism threat in the next 12 months.
  • At this time, it is almost certain that right-wing terrorist actors would have the capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack such as Vehicle as a Weapon, Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, and Fire as a Weapon attacks at sites across the UK.
  • It is unlikely that any attack conducted by a right-wing terrorist actor in the UK would indiscriminately target civilians as previously demonstrated by Islamist-inspired terrorist actors.
  • Instead, it is highly likely that any attack conducted by a right-wing terrorist actor would target a specific high-profile individual, such as a pro-immigration politician, community groups including the LGBTQIA+ community, sites associated with the UK government, such as asylum seeker processing hotels, or minority communities and/or places of worship.
• It is highly likely that the increase in the number of those aged 18 years or younger being arrested for terrorism-related offences has resulted from the continued proliferation of easily accessible extremist content online.
• There have been no cases of a successful terrorist attack conducted by a child or teenager in the UK as the UK police and security services continue to demonstrate the ability to disrupt late-stage terrorism plots. However, children and teenagers have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK, including:
  • 2022 – Darlington – A 14-year-old was convicted for possessing information useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism. The teenager had reportedly been active on racist online forums and allegedly possessed manuals for making explosives.[2]
  • 2022 – Isle of Wight – A 15-year-old was charged for the preparation of terrorist acts. The individual was allegedly plotting a terror attack at the Isle of Wight Festival. [3]
  • 2023 – Derbyshire – A 19-year-old was sentenced to 11-and-a-half years in jail for encouraging terrorism and possessing material for terrorist purposes. The individual had previously praised the 2019 terrorist attacks in New Zealand and his content had been commented on and referenced by the man who murdered ten people in a racially motivated attack in Buffalo, US, in 2022.[4]

  Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 20 March 2023