Author: Lucy Hagger,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 16 September 2024, Alan Edward, 54, was found guilty of planning to commit an act of terrorism {1}. Edward had discussed an attack on a LGBT group in Falkirk, Scotland. The court found Edward possessed and expressed a neo-Nazi outlook, notions of white supremacy and anti-semitism {2}.
Police found a cache of weapons and equipment at Edward’s home, including an air pistol, a crossbow, 14 knives, and machetes. Certain items of equipment had Nazi and SS insignia on. He also possessed blunt force weapons such as an extendable baton and knuckledusters {3}.
Edward had a significant online presence, with nearly 28,000 followers on social media. He was also active on two accounts on Gab, the loosely-moderated online platform popular with extremists. Police investigations into his devices found he had been using WhatsApp to message an associate nearby about the proposed attack. His computer contained documents referring to the Norwegian neo-Nazi, Anders Breivik, who killed 77 people in a 2011 terrorist attack, targeting mainly children {4}.
Event Assessment
- It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will remain a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
- It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors would have the intent to target sites or individuals associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, as well as other minority groups.
- Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against sites and individuals associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, including:
- 2024 – Swansea – 19-year-old, Alex Hutton, attacked a transgender woman using mixed martial arts. Hutton held extreme racist, transphobic, and homophobic views. Extreme videos encouraging and glorifying terrorism, for example Nazi extremism videos, were found on his phone by police {5}.
- 2018 – Cumbria – 20-year-old, Ethan Stables, was convicted of preparing a terrorist attack against a pub in Barrow that was hosting a gay pride night. Stables expressed extreme right-wing views, promoting homophobic, racist, and Nazi views online {6}.
- It is highly likely that an Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack would be conducted using a low-sophistication methodology, such as a Bladed or Blunt force weapon. The methodology by which Edwards intended to conduct his attack remains unclear. However, there is a realistic possibility that Edward could have plotted to use a Bladed or Blunt Force weapon to conduct an attack due to the large arsenal of similar weapons in his possession.
- It is highly likely that an Extreme Right-Wing inspired terrorist attack in the UK would be conducted by an individual. In the UK, most previous terrorist attacks inspired by Extreme Right-Wing ideology have been conducted by individuals. There is little evidence to suggest these individuals were affiliated with an organisation, nor were the attacks directed by an organisation {7}.
- It is highly likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat has evolved from structured groups to a more disparate online threat. This may be due to the proscription of certain Extreme Right-Wing terrorist groups, such as National Action. Proscription limits the capabilities of individuals to organise and communicate, whether in person, or online.
- It is highly likely that individuals possessing Extreme Right-Wing views have moved away from mainstream social media sites to more loosely-moderated platforms such as Gab, Telegram, 4Chan, etc.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 27 September 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Lucy Hagger,
Threat Analyst