Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 5 minutes
Pool Re’s Threat Awareness Team have previously explored reports which suggested that the UK was preparing to proscribe Russia’s Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation.[1] On 23 June 2023, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, reportedly attempted a rebellion in Russia. In this article, Pool Re explore what impact the Wagner Group’s rebellion could have for the group, their global strategy, and the terrorism threat posed to the UK.
Timeline of the Mutiny
- On 23 June 2023, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, ordered members of the Wagner Group to move towards Moscow in what he labelled a “march for justice”.[2] Prior to 24 June 2023, Prigozhin had been in public disagreement with Russia’s military chiefs about the conduct of the war and the government’s lack of support for the Wagner Group.[3]
- On 24 June 2024, Prigozhin ended the reported rebellion within 24 hours of its start following an alleged deal brokered by the leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. The conditions of the deal that ended the rebellion remain unclear.[4]
- On 29 June 2023, Prigozhin reportedly met with Putin in Moscow and rejected an offer for the Wagner Group to join the Russian army as a regular military unit.[5]
- On 12 July 2023, it was reported that the Wagner Group had handed over 2000 pieces of military equipment and 2,500 tonnes of ammunition to Russia, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.[6]
- Media reporting suggests that as of 15 July 2023, a small contingent of Wagner Group fighters arrived at a camp in Belarus, according to the Ukrainian Border Guards.[7]
- As of 17 July 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s whereabouts remain unclear.[8]
Assessment of the Wagner Group Rebellion
- It is almost certain that the Russian government will seek to take greater control of the Wagner Group in the short term. There is a realistic possibility that the rebellion could lead to challenges for, and a loss of faith in, the leadership of Vladimir Putin in the short to medium term.
- On June 27 2023, Putin stated that the Wagner Group was “fully funded” by the Russian state between May 2022 and May 2023. The Wagner Group has previously worked to carry out Russia’s foreign policy objectives and project Russian influence abroad.[9] Before this announcement, the exact relationship between Moscow and the Wagner Group had been unconfirmed.[10]
- A statement made by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, on 26 June 2023 suggests it is likely that the Russian government is prepared to accept Prigozhin’s aspirations to maintain the group’s extensive presence in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali and Syria.[11]
- It is highly likely that the Wagner Group will remain active throughout sub-Saharan Africa in the long term, offering paramilitary services to fragile states in exchange for access to natural resources and contracts for resource extraction.[12] It is highly likely that the economic benefits gained by the Wagner Group in sub-Saharan Africa would guarantee continued support from the Russian government at a time of ongoing sanction and conflict management.
- Media reporting suggests that a shell company linked to Prigozhin and Wagner has recently secured a new, long-term permit to lead operations at the largest gold mine in the Central African Republic and has significantly expanded the site’s production area in the past 12 months.[13]
- Media reporting suggests that the Wagner Group has received more than $200 million in payments from Mali’s authorities since 2021, making it a critical part of the Kremlin’s sanctions management and war strategy.[14]
- There is a realistic possibility that the Wagner Group’s presence throughout sub-Saharan Africa could further destabilise the region. There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the region could seek to exploit such instability to facilitate terrorist activity, both domestically and abroad.
- E.g., on 30 June 2023, the United Nations (UN) Security Council voted to withdraw UN peacekeeping forces from Mali. White House officials accused Prigozhin of helping engineer the departure of UN peacekeepers.[15] Media reporting now suggests that the security situation in Mali could worsen alongside the expansion of an Islamist insurgency in the country.[16]
What this means for the UK
- Media reporting has previously suggested that the British Government plan to formally declare the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation. It is unclear whether recent events within Russia would alter the intent of the UK Government to proscribe the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation. Proscription of the Wagner Group in the UK as a terrorist organisation would make it a criminal offence to join the group, encourage support for it, attend any of its meetings, or display its logo in public.[17]
- There is a realistic possibility that a proscription of the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation could lead to a weakening of the organisation through restrictions over group membership and support as individuals seek to avoid the moral stigma associated with being part of a proscribed terrorist organisation.
- There is a realistic possibility that Russia and the Wagner Group could take retaliatory action towards the UK, British citizens fighting in Ukraine, and British assets abroad as a result of a UK terrorist designation.
- It is likely that the Russo-Ukraine war will act as a driver for terrorism threat in the UK in the medium term. There is a realistic possibility that global terrorist networks could seek to exploit and gain access to the vast number of unregulated arms present in Ukraine and the ongoing refugee crisis in order to facilitate operational activity in Europe and the UK.
- It is almost certain that the Russian state will maintain the intent to influence and destabilise the UK through third-party proxies, organised criminal groups, and covert action in the long term. On 17 July 2023, the head of the National Crime Agency (NCA), Director General Graeme Biggar warned of “the emerging links between serious and organised crime and hostile states”.[18]
- Russia has previously been implicated in hostile Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) activity conducted in the UK, including:
- 2018 – Salisbury – A former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter were poisoned using a military-grade nerve agent. Sergei Skripal had been providing MI6 with secrets from his time in Russian military intelligence. A local woman died months later when she came into contact with the nerve agent after it had been discarded.[19] Two Russian nationals were later charged over the poisoning.[20]
- 2006 – London – A former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, was fatally poisoned with radioactive polonium-210 in London. Litvinenko had previously fled Russia and became a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin. A UK public inquiry conducted in 2016 concluded that that poisoning was “probably approved” by Putin.[21]
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
-
- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
End Notes
[1] British Government set to proscribe Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation – Pool Reinsurance
[2] Wagner chief’s 24 hours of chaos in Russia – BBC News
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Putin says Wagner Group has no legal basis and therefore simply doesn’t exist | The Independent
[6] Wagner has handed over thousands of tonnes of weaponry, says Russia | Russia | The Guardian
[7] Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus, Ukraine confirms – BBC News
[8] Ibid.
[9] Wagner mutiny: Group fully funded by Russia, says Putin – BBC News
[10] Following Prigozhin’s Aborted Mutiny, What Will Happen to the Wagner Group? – Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org); Wagner mutiny: Group fully funded by Russia, says Putin – BBC News
[11] Aftermath of the Wagner Group armed insurrection: Outlook scenarios and key indicators for Russia and Belarus (janes.com)
[12] Following Prigozhin’s Aborted Mutiny, What Will Happen to the Wagner Group? – Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)
[13] Central African Republic Mine Displays Stakes for Wagner Group’s Future (csis.org); Inside the stunning growth of Russia’s Wagner Group – POLITICO
[14] UN ends peacekeeping mission in Mali, US blames Russia’s Wagner | Reuters
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ibid.
[17] British Government set to proscribe Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation – Pool Reinsurance
[18] Hostile states using organised crime gangs in UK, head of National Crime Agency warns | UK News | Sky News
[19] The Salisbury spy poisonings five years on: Did UK’s response change Putin’s pathway to invading Ukraine? | UK News | Sky News
[20] Salisbury poisonings: police name two Russian suspects | Novichok poisonings | The Guardian
[21] Russia behind Litvinenko murder, rules European rights court – BBC News
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst