May Monthly Terrorism Update

• On 01 April 2025, two men were arrested at separate addresses in West London on suspicion of terrorism offences by detectives from Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command. The two men were suspected to be members of Hezbollah, a proscribed organisation under UK counter terrorism legislation. The 39-year-old man was suspected of preparing for acts of terrorism and was allegedly involved in a funding arrangement for purposes of terrorism. The two individuals have been released on bail until July 2025. The investigation remains ongoing {1}.

• On 06 April 2025, two men were arrested and subsequently charged with participation in a terrorist criminal conspiracy and possession of explosive materials in Dunkirk, France, according to the National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor’s Office. The main suspect, a 19-year-old man, had allegedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and was reportedly motivated by “the state of France”. The suspect reportedly intended to target a site belonging to the Jewish community, a restaurant, a night club, and a youth centre using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). The investigation remains ongoing {2}{3}{4}{5}.

• On 07 April 2025, Hakan Barac, 28, was sentenced to three years and nine months in prison after he admitted five counts related to the online distribution of terrorist publications, and one of expressing support for a proscribed organisation, reported to be Islamic State. Barac had posted videos on social media sites, including Instagram and Telegram, and glorified terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Barac arrived in the UK in 2023 and was in the process of seeking asylum when he was arrested by Counter Terrorism Policing in 2024 {6}{7}.

• On 13 April 2025, at approximately 02:00, Cody Balmer, 38, conducted a Fire as a Weapon attack against Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro’s house in Harrisburg, US. Balmer allegedly smashed a window with a hammer and then threw a Molotov Cocktail inside the house. The fire caused significant damage to the property. No one was injured. Balmer allegedly targeted Shapiro because of his strong support for Israel during the current Israel-Hamas conflict. Reporting suggests that Balmer had faced personal and financial issues in recent years and investigators believe mental health issues may also have been a motivating factor for the attack. Balmer has been charged with attempted murder, arson, burglary and terrorism intended to coerce “the conduct of a government”. The investigation remains ongoing {8}{9}{10}.

• On 17 April 2025, Tobias Gleed, 20, was sentenced to five and a half years in prison for terrorism offences, including four counts of possession of a document or record for terrorist purposes, and four counts of dissemination of a terrorist publication. Gleed was originally arrested in September 2022 as part of an investigation by Counter Terrorism Policing South West. Material of an Extreme Right-Wing nature was found on Gleed’s digital devices after they were seized during the investigation. Prosecutor Lyndon Harris said Gleed held a “terrorist mindset” and “racist views towards black and Jewish people” and had “discussed murder in relation to skin colour and racism”. During sentencing, His Honour Judge Christopher Parker KC took into consideration Gleed’s “possible neurodivergence, personality and mental health” {11}{12}{13}.

• Throughout April, Nikita Casap, 17, appeared in court after being charged with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide following the deaths of his mother and stepfather who were found dead at their home in Wisconsin, US, on the 28 February 2025. Court documents revealed that Casap allegedly killed his parents in order to attain “financial means and autonomy” to carry out a wider plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, overthrow the government, and “save the white race” from “Jewish controlled politicians”. A search warrant also revealed that Casap’s phone contained material relating to the Order of the Nine Angles, a Satanic neo-Nazi group. According to US media, Casap was reportedly inspired by Terrorgram, a proscribed online network of white supremacists. The trial continues {14}{15}{16}.

• On 26 April 2025, Kai-Ji Adam Lo, 30, conducted a Vehicle as a Weapon attack against the annual Lapu Lapu festival in Vancouver, Canada. There were 11 fatalities and many more were injured. Lo has subsequently been charged with eight counts of second degree murder and “further charges anticipated”. A motive for the attack has not been confirmed at this time. Police have stated the incident is not being treated as an act of terrorism. The Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim stated that “mental health appears to be the underlying issue”. According to local media, a relative of Lo had contacted the psychiatric ward of a local hospital a few hours before Lo’s alleged attack because of “his worsening mental health” {17}{18}.

• On 26 April 2025, Oliver Lawrence, 38, allegedly attacked two women using a crossbow and a firearm on the “Otley run” pub crawl route in Leeds. Both women were injured. There were no fatalities. Lawrence suffered a “self-inflicted injury” and died in hospital on 29 April 2025. Counter Terrorism Policing are currently examining a number of Facebook posts to determine if they are linked to the suspect. One post allegedly referred to plans for a “mass-murder” attack and indicated “far-right sympathies”. The post reportedly listed students, “nightclub goers” and “neurotypicals” as potential targets. The post also allegedly described the attack as motivated by “revenge” and “misogynistic rage”. The motive for the attack remains unknown and the investigation by Counter Terrorism Policing remains ongoing at this time. At the time of writing, the attack has not been designated as terrorism {19}{20}{21}.

• It is highly likely that crossbows would remain an attractive methodology to terrorist actors seeking to conduct an attack in the UK due to their easily accessible nature and lethal potential. At this time, there is no licensing or registration scheme for the weapons {22}.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK using a crossbow would be conducted by an individual adhering to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology. Extreme Right-Wing Terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent to use crossbows in the UK, including:

• • 2025 – On 13 March 2025, a 15-year-old from Northumberland appeared in court for a preliminary hearing after he was charged with engaging in conduct in preparation for committing acts of terrorism. The boy allegedly planned an attack against local synagogues and a phone mast. He had reportedly purchased equipment and weapons, including a crossbow, online in 2024. The boy was also charged with one count of membership of a proscribed organisation, reported to be the Extreme Right-Wing group, the Base {23}.

• • 2025 – On 05 March 2025, Sheffield Crown Court heard that Christopher Ringrose, 34, Marco Pitzettu, 25, and Brogan Stewart, 25, allegedly plotted an Extreme Right-Wing inspired terrorist attack against mosques and synagogues in the UK. The accused reportedly attempted to acquire a “wide variety of weapons”, including swords, knives, axes, spears and crossbows {24}.

• • 2024 – On 16 September 2024, Alan Edward, 54, was found guilty of planning to commit an act of terrorism. Edward had discussed an attack on an LGBTQ+ group in Falkirk, Scotland. The court found Edward possessed and expressed a neo-Nazi outlook, notions of white supremacy and antisemitism. Police found a cache of weapons and equipment at Edward’s home, including an air pistol, a crossbow, 14 knives, and machetes {25}.

• As demonstrated by high-profile terrorism-related incidents throughout April 2025, it is almost certain that terrorist actors would maintain the intent to conduct attacks against publicly accessible and crowded spaces in the UK and globally.

• • Eg., The Vehicle as a Weapon attack conducted against the annual Lapu Lapu festival in Canada demonstrates that it is highly likely that outdoor events held on streets, such as festivals, markets, and outdoor hospitality venues would remain attractive targets which could be targeted by terrorist actors seeking to conduct an attack.

• • Eg., While it has not been designated as terrorism at the time of writing, the targeting of individuals attending the “Otley Run” pub crawl in Leeds, as well as “nightclub goers” being listed as a potential target by the suspect, demonstrates that it is highly likely that terrorist actors in the UK would have the intent to conduct attacks against nightclubs, pubs, and bars due to their publicly accessible nature and the routine gathering of large crowds at such sites. 

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted against a publicly accessible and crowded space at this time would be conducted by an Islamist terrorist actor due to the ideologically driven intent to conduct indiscriminate attacks against members of the public.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted against a publicly accessible and crowded space at this time would be conducted by an individual or small cell (approx. 2-3 individuals) using a low-sophistication methodology (E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Fire as a Weapon, Vehicle as a Weapon).

• Despite the arrest of two men suspected to be members of Hezbollah, it is highly unlikely that Hezbollah would currently have the intent or capability to conduct attacks in the UK. It is highly likely that the operational capability of Hezbollah would be reduced at this time as a result of concerted Israeli military action. It is highly likely that the group is currently focused on regional goals and reestablishing operational capability.

• The Fire as a Weapon attack conducted by Cody Balmer in Pennsylvania, US demonstrates the realistic possibility that high profile individuals, such as MPs or prominent members of the Jewish community, who publicly support Israel amidst the conflict between Israel-Hamas, could be targeted by terrorist actors in the UK.

• Terrorist actors in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against MPs in response to their stance on matters of political importance, including:

• • 2021 – On 15 October 2021, Ali Harbi Ali, 25, conducted a fatal Bladed Weapons attack against Sir David Amess MP. Ali had pledged allegiance to Islamic State and murdered Amess at his constituency surgery in Leigh-on-Sea. After the attack, Ali stated that “I wanted to kill David and every MP who voted for bombings in Syria, I wanted to die, be shot and be a hero” {26}.

• Although not designated as terrorism, Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) protest groups have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct protest action against high profile individuals in the UK as a result of their perceived stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, including:

• • 2025 – On 08 April 2025, individuals from Youth Demand laid body bags outside the front door of Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s house. The group’s reported motivation for the action was to “highlight role in continuing to facilitate the genocide in Gaza’” One protester displayed a banner that read, “Lammy Stop Arming Genocide” {27}.

• • 2024 – On 19 June 2024, three individuals were found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestine protest occurred outside of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s house. On 09 April 2024, protesters hung a banner that read, “Starmer stop the killing”. Rows of children’s shoes were laid in front of the door {28}{29}.

• The arrest of two men charged with participation in a terrorist criminal conspiracy and possession of explosive materials in Dunkirk, France, demonstrates the enduring appeal of Islamic State and Islamist ideology more broadly. It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the predominant terrorism threat to the UK at this time. Islamist terrorism currently accounts for approximately 75% of MI5’s counterterrorism caseload {30}.

• At this time, it is highly likely that the predominant threat posed by organised overseas Islamist terrorist groups, including Islamic State, remains their ability to radicalise vulnerable UK-based individuals online and inspire them to conduct low sophistication attacks domestically.

• As demonstrated by the sentencing of Hakan Barac and Tobias Gleed, it is almost certain that UK-based individuals would also have the intent and capability to radicalise and inspire vulnerable UK-based individuals to conduct attacks via the propagation of extreme online content.

• • On 25 April 2025, Victor Dias, 21, was jailed for three years after he admitted to possession of Extreme Right-Wing terrorism documents. The documents included guides on how to make explosives, firearms, and ammunition. Dias reportedly also possessed information on how to build a “home-made submachine gun from scratch”. Dias was an adherent of Extreme Right Wing and Nazi ideology and possessed a hatred for Jewish and LGBTQ+ individuals {31}{32}.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 30 April 2025