March Monthly Terrorism Update

• On 13 February 2025, Farishta Jami, 36, was found guilty of terrorism offences after she planned to travel to Afghanistan to join Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). She had saved £1,200 to pay for one-way flights to Afghanistan for her and her children. Jami was also an administrator on several pro-Islamic State group chats and channels, meaning she oversaw the posting of violent extremist material in the form of videos, documents, and images on social media platforms {1}.

• On 13 February 2025, Farhad Noori, a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker, drove a vehicle into a crowd of people at a trade union rally in Munich, Germany. Police do not currently believe that the victims – protesters linked to Verdi trade union – were specifically targeted. Two people died from their injuries and 37 others were injured. According to prosecutors, Noori had “an Islamist motivation”. He allegedly published Islamist posts on social media before the attack. The investigation remains ongoing {2}{3}.

• On 15 February 2025, Ahmad G., a 23-year-old Syrian asylum seeker, conducted a marauding Bladed Weapons attack against members of the public near the main square in Villach, Austria. One person was killed and five others were injured. According to officials, Ahmad G. was inspired by an Islamist ideology and had allegedly radicalised online using TikTok. The suspect allegedly had links to Islamic State and had pledged allegiance to the group. The investigation remains ongoing {4}{5}.

• On 21 February 2025, a 17-year-old boy pleaded guilty to a charge under the Terrorism Act and a breach of the peace after he allegedly plotted to conduct a mass shooting at a school he attended in Edinburgh. The individual reportedly held racist and pro-Nazi views and idolised the perpetrators of the 1999 US Columbine High School shooting. The individual allegedly suffered from mental health difficulties and intended to conduct the attack as he was reportedly bullied at the school {6}{7}.

• On 21 February 2025, a 19-year-old was arrested after it is alleged he conducted a Bladed Weapons attack against a Spanish tourist at a Holocaust Memorial in Berlin, Germany. Police stated that the suspect was arrested carrying a prayer rug and a copy of the Quran which suggested “a religious motivation”. The exact motivation for the attack remains unclear, however, prosecutors have alleged that the suspect had been planning to kill Jewish people for several weeks and may have been motivated by the Middle East conflict. The investigation remains ongoing {8}{9}.

• On 22 February 2025, an individual conducted a Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons attack against police officers and a member of the public at a market in Mulhouse, France. The individual was reportedly armed with a knife and screwdriver. French President Emmanuel Macron described the attack as “Islamist terrorism”. According to a local prosecutor, the suspect was on a terrorism watch list and subject to a deportation order. There was one fatality and five others were injured. The investigation remains ongoing {10}{11}.

• On 26 February 2025, a 15-year-old, from Northumberland, UK, was charged with one count of engaging in conduct in preparation for committing acts of terrorism. The teenager was also charged with membership of a proscribed organisation. Reporting suggests that the individual was a member of The Base, a predominantly US-based white supremacist group that promotes and encourages acts of terrorism. He had allegedly began planning a terrorist attack in 2024 and allegedly acquired equipment and weapons including a crossbow. The teenager denies the charges. The trial remains ongoing {12}{13}{14}{15}.

• Islamist inspired terrorism plots and attacks conducted across Western Europe in February 2025 demonstrate that it is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the predominant terrorism threat to Western Europe and the UK at this time. Islamist terrorism currently accounts for approximately 75% of MI5’s counterterrorism caseload {16}.

• Whilst it is almost certain that Islamic State would maintain the intent to conduct directed attacks against the UK at this time, it is highly likely that the predominant threat posed by organised overseas terrorist groups remains their ability to radicalise vulnerable UK-based individuals online and inspire them to conduct low sophistication attacks domestically.

• It is highly likely that ISKP is Islamic State’s most capable affiliate at this time and currently poses the most significant organised terrorism threat to the UK. In October 2024, Director General of MI5 Ken McCallum stated that the UK “and many European partners are detecting IS-connected activity in our homelands, which are moving early to disrupt” {17}.

• The imprisonment of Farishta Jami demonstrates the ability of ISKP to target and radicalise vulnerable individuals in the UK. According to Tech Against Terrorism, ISKP is currently actively targeting diaspora communities, and their focus on the UK surpasses that of other Western nations {18}. Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent to commit terrorism offences related to ISKP, including:

• 2023 – Birmingham – On 24 November 2023, Muhammad Abdul Haleem Heyder Khan and Muhammad Hamzah Heyder Khan were jailed after they admitted planning to travel to Afghanistan to join ISKP. The two brothers reportedly became “increasingly radicalised” over the course of 2022 and had researched how to travel to Afghanistan and join the group {19}.

• For more information, please see Pool Re Solutions’ latest deep-dive report and podcast on The Current State of Islamist Terrorism.

• The arrest of a 15-year-old for planning a terrorist attack and membership of a proscribed Extreme Right-Wing organisation demonstrates that it is highly likely that those aged 18 or younger will remain at risk of radicalisation by Extreme Right-Wing ideologues in the long term due to the continued proliferation of easily accessible online content and the increase in time spent online by children and young adults in the UK.

• • Eg., A report released in December 2024 revealed that security and law enforcement agencies from the Five Eyes (UK, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) community are collectively seeing minors of varying ideological affiliations in their investigations, including in certain circumstances, minors planning to mobilise to violence in support of their radicalised ideologies {20}.

• It is almost certain that a small minority of children and young adults who become radicalised online would develop the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK. E.g., In October 2024, Director General of MI5 Ken McCallum revealed that 13% of all those being investigated by MI5 for involvement in UK terrorism are under 18; a three-fold increase in the last three years {21}.

• As demonstrated by the disrupted plot to conduct a mass shooting at an Edinburgh school, there is a realistic possibility that children and young adults could have the intent to conduct attacks against schools in the UK. It remains unclear if any such attack would be designated as terrorism.

• Individuals have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against schools in the UK, including:

• • 2025 – London, England – On 24 February 2025, it was revealed that Nocholas Prosper, 19, had planned to carry out a firearms attack against his former primary school after he had killed three members of his family on 13 September 2024. Police revealed that a loaded shotgun with more than 30 cartridges were found in a bush after the individual’s arrest. Prosper pleaded guilty to three counts of murder and possessing a firearm with intent to endanger life {22}.

• • 2024 – Carmarthenshire, Wales – Although not designated as terrorism, a teenage student was charged with three counts of wounding with intent after she injured three people during a school stabbing on 24 April 2024. The motivation for the attack remains unclear and the trial remains ongoing {23}{24}.

• • 2023 – UK – Head of Counterterrorism Policing Matt Jukes revealed that police had witnessed a “real threat” of teenagers and children fixated on coverage of mass shootings who plotted US-style attacks on schools in the UK {25}.

• • 2018 – Yorkshire, England – On 20 July 2018, Thomas Wyllie and Alex Bolland, both 15, were imprisoned after they plotted to conduct a school shooting. Jurors heard that the pair were inspired by the 1999 US Columbine High School massacre and had a “firm plan with specific targets in mind”. Wyllie had reportedly collected screws and flammable liquid which prosecutors suggested were to be used to construct an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) {26}.

• • 1996 – Dunblane, Scotland – Although not designated as terrorism, on 13 March 1996, Thomas Hamilton, 43, conducted a firearms attack against Dunblane primary school in Scotland. There were 17 fatalities, of which 16 were students, and one was a teacher. The motive for the attack remains unclear {27}{28}.

• For further information on the threat posed to the Education sector, please see Pool Re Solutions’ sector-specific threat assessments here.

• The use of low sophistication methodologies in attacks conducted throughout February 2025 is consistent with recent UK terrorism threat trends, where ease of access to low sophistication methodologies has led to an increase in low sophistication attacks in the UK and overseas.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual or small cell using a low sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.

• There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the UK could have the capability to conduct a high sophistication attack at this time. E.g., Improvised Explosive Device (IED), Firearms, etc. The complicated nature of plotting a high sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunity for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 28 February 2025