Author: Becca Stewart,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 2 minutes
As of 19 May 2023, a 21-year-old man has admitted to preparing to conduct a terrorist attack in London before being arrested on 23 September 2022. The perpetrator allegedly intended to target a Christian speaker, Hatun Tash, at Speakers’ Corner in Hyde Park, London, and intended to kill any police or soldiers in the area at the time.[1] Hatun Tash has previously been targeted on several occasions at Speakers’ Corner as a result of her anti-Islamic views. One such attack resulted in Tash being stabbed by an unknown assailant whilst she was wearing a Charlie Hebdo T-shirt.[2]
The perpetrator of the current plot was intercepted whilst in a taxi from Brighton to Lewisham, South London, and was carrying a rucksack with £5,000 cash, two mobile phones and a passport. He had also asked the taxi driver if he could stop and pray at a mosque on the journey, however the taxi driver had said there were none on the route.[3] The perpetrator had researched several firearms online and had arranged to purchase one for £5,000 using an encrypted messaging app on one of the phones. The perpetrator had also set out their attack plans in the encrypted chat. Following the offender’s guilty plea, the judge adjourned sentencing until 21 July 2023.[4]
Assessment
- At this time, it is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK would be carried out by a lone individual or small cell using a low sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt-Force weapons, Fire as a Weapon, or a Hoax Suicide Vest.
- It is almost certain that terrorist actors will continue to have the intent to use firearms to conduct a terrorist attack in the UK. There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the UK could acquire and use firearms as part of a terrorist attack.
- It is highly likely that terrorist actors in the UK will continue exploiting encrypted messaging platforms to communicate with others in order to facilitate attack preparation or planning.
- It is almost certain that Speakers’ Corner will continue to attract individuals from a variety of backgrounds to speak about and debate their own beliefs, values, politics and religion. As a result, it is likely that terrorist actors in the UK will maintain the intent to target specific individuals at Speakers’ Corner who are high profile and/or espouse strong religious or moral beliefs.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 21 May 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Terrorist admits plotting Hyde Park gun attack on Christian preacher | The Independent
[2] Edward Little admits planning terror attack on Speakers’ Corner preacher Hatun Tash (thetimes.co.uk); Charlie Hebdo is a French satirical magazine whose office in Paris was targeted in an Islamist terrorist attack in 2015. 12 staff members were killed by the Al Qaeda-inspired perpetrators.
[3] Speakers’ Corner: Man admits Hyde Park gun attack plot – BBC News
[4] Terrorist admits plotting Hyde Park gun attack on Christian preacher | The Independent
Author: Becca Stewart,
Threat Analyst