Man Charged with Attempted Murder After Two Fire as a Weapon Attacks

•  It is almost certain that terrorist actors in the UK would have the intent and capability to conduct Fire as a Weapon attacks in the UK. Fire as a Weapon is an attractive methodology to terrorist actors in the UK seeking to use a low-cost and easily accessible tactic that requires very little prior planning or training to execute.
• Fire as a Weapon involves the deliberate use of fire within a terrorist attack against people or property. Fire as a Weapon can be used as the sole methodology within a terrorist attack, or as part of a complex Marauding Terrorist Attack, in which terrorists employ different attack methodologies within the same attack.
• Terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct Fire as a Weapon attacks in the UK:
  • 2013 – Portishead – An anarchist group, the “Angry Foxes”, claimed responsibility for an arson attack at a police training centre. The terrorist attack resulted in an insurance claim of almost £11m.[4]
  • 2017 – London – Following a Marauding Terrorist Attack on London Bridge in which three Islamist terrorists used a vehicle to ram pedestrians before assaulting members of the public using bladed weapons, police discovered 14 petrol cans and four constructed petrol bombs in the attack van. Although the intended use of the devices is still unknown, it is highly likely that the attackers intended to use the devices on nearby sites, including Borough Market.[5]
  • 2019 – Durham – A 19-year-old with alleged neo-Nazi sympathies was sentenced to six years in prison for plotting to conduct an arson campaign against synagogues in Durham.[6]
  • 2022 – Dover – A right-wing extremist conducted a Fire as a Weapon attack at an immigration centre in Dover using three petrol cannisters with fireworks attached to them. The attack did not cause any serious injuries or property damage.[7]
• It is highly likely that any Fire as a Weapon attack conducted against property in the UK would result in damage to the site, disruption to business continuity, and threaten the lives of people in proximity to the incident.
• There is a realistic possibility that members of the Muslim community would be targeted by terrorist actors in the UK as a result of their faith and/or ethnicity, particularly by those with extreme right-wing ideologies. It is likely that the threat posed to Muslim communities and their places of worship could increase during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Terrorist actors in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against members of the Muslim community:
  • 2013 – Birmingham – An extreme right-wing terrorist stabbed an 82-year-old returning home from a Birmingham Mosque. The perpetrator later detonated three Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) near Mosques in the West Midlands as part of a campaign he said was motivated by racial hatred.[8] There were no fatalities.
  • 2017 – London – An extreme right-wing terrorist conducted a Vehicle as a Weapon attack against worshippers gathered outside the Muslim Welfare House in Finsbury Park shortly after evening Ramadan prayers. There was one fatality, and 11 others were injured.[9]

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 31 March 2023