Authors: Oliver Hair & Lucy Hagger,
Threat Analysts
Read Time: 5 minutes
Executive Summary
Terrorism-related incidents throughout December 2024 have demonstrated the complexity of terrorism threat globally. Pool Re’s threat analysis team have provided a summary of the key incidents in December and a strategic threat assessment on the UK terrorism threat landscape below, including:
- High-profile terrorism-related incidents conducted in the USA and Germany demonstrate that Vehicle as a Weapon (VAW) remains an attractive terrorist methodology.
- Terrorism-related incidents throughout December 2024 demonstrate the evolving nature of terrorism intent and the increasing influence of past life experience and personal grievance in the motivation of terrorist actors globally.
- Islamic State continue to inspire vulnerable individuals to conduct low-sophistication attacks throughout the West, amidst concerns of a resurgent Islamic State threat.
Key Incidents Timeline
- On 04 December 2024, Luigi Mangione, 26, is alleged to have fatally shot UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson outside of a hotel in New York, US. Mangione was allegedly motivated by resentment of what he called “parasitic” health insurance companies. Mangione is alleged to have conducted the attack using a firearm that was partially produced by a 3D printer. On Wednesday 18 December 2024, Mangione was charged with murder as an act of terrorism, among other offences. Mangione pleaded not guilty. The trial remains ongoing {1}{2}{3}.
- On 19 December 2024, Jordan Richardson, of Howden near Goole in East Yorkshire, UK, was arrested after he reportedly made Instagram posts expressing his support for Islamic State. On 20 December 2024, Richardson was charged with engaging in conduct in preparation of an act of terrorism. A document allegedly setting out an attack plan was found by police after Richardson’s arrest as well as a crossbow, a knife, and a recipe for sulphur mustard, also known as Mustard gas {4}.
- On 20 December 2024, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, 50, conducted a Vehicle as a Weapon attack against civilians at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany. al-Abdulmohsen travelled approximately 400m during the attack. Five people were killed and at least 200 others were injured. German Interior Minister, Nancy Faeser, stated Abdulmohsen held “Islamophobic” views and had previously renounced his Islamic faith. al-Abdulmohsen reportedly expressed support for the German far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and promoted far-right conspiracy theories. Investigations remain ongoing and no motive for the attack has been established at this time {5}{6}{7}{8}.
- On 01 January 2025, at approximately 03:15 local time, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, drove an electric Ford pick-up truck into crowds of people that had gathered on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, US. Jabbbar travelled approximately 300m during the attack. 15 people were killed, including a UK citizen, and at least 35 others were injured. After the incident, Jabbar exited the car and began shooting at police officers, who returned fire and killed Jabbar. According to the FBI, Jabbar had posted videos on social media indicating that he was inspired by Islamic State prior to the attack. Two undetonated Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) were found in proximity to the incident. The investigation remains ongoing {9}{10}{11}.
- On 01 January 2025, Matthew Livelsberger, 37, was the driver of a Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside of president-elect Donald Trump’s Las Vegas hotel. Officers found gas cannisters, camp fuel cannisters, and large firework mortars in the back of the vehicle after the explosion. Livelsberger died in the explosion and seven others were injured. The incident is currently being investigated as a potential terrorist attack, however, the motivation for the attack remains unclear. The investigation remains ongoing {12}.
Assessment
- It is almost certain that terrorist actors maintain the intent and capability to conduct attacks using VAW. Three separate high-profile VAW attacks throughout December demonstrate that VAW remains a low-cost and readily available methodology that requires a low level of training to execute successfully.
- At this time, it is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK using VAW would target members of the public, rather than infrastructure or property. Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct VAW attacks against members of the public, including:
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- 2017 – London – On 03 June 2017, Khuram Butt, Rachid Redouane, and Youssef Zaghba conducted a Marauding Terrorist Attack (MTA). The small cell first conducted a VAW attack against civilians on London Bridge before conducting a Marauding Bladed Weapons attack against civilians in proximity to Borough Market. There were eight fatalities and 48 others were injured. The perpetrators were inspired by an Islamist ideology {13}.
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- 2017 – London – On 22 March 2017, Khalid Masood, 52, conducted an MTA against and in proximity to Westminster Bridge in London. Masood first conducted a VAW attack against civilians on Westminster Bridge followed by a Bladed Weapons attack against a member of the police. There were five fatalities and over 50 people were injured. Masood was inspired by an Islamist ideology {14}.
- The attack conducted by Jabbar and the attack allegedly plotted by Richardson demonstrate the intent of terrorist actors to conduct layered attacks; the use of a combination of methodologies to potentially increase the lethality and impact of an attack. Previous terrorist attacks conducted in the UK have demonstrated that layered attacks usually have greater lethality than an attack using a lone methodology.
- It is highly unlikely that terrorist actors would currently have the capability to conduct a significant Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack as a result of the significant barriers in the acquisition, production, and delivery of a device of that size. However, Livelsberger’s attack methodology demonstrates the realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the UK could have the intent and capability to conduct a VBIED attack using comparatively low-sophistication methods. E.g., Fireworks, petrol cannisters, etc.
- It is almost certain that Islamic State maintain the intent to conduct attacks in the UK at this time. In October 2024, the Director General of MI5 Ken McCallum stated that the threat posed by Islamic State is the most concerning terrorist trend in the UK {15}.
- It is highly likely that any Islamist attack on the UK at this time would be conducted by a self-radicalised individual. It is almost certain Islamic State maintain the intent and capability to radicalise vulnerable individuals to conduct attacks throughout the West. Prior to his attack, Jabbar reportedly recorded a video in which he claimed he had “pledged allegiance to ISIS”. An Islamic State flag was attached to the vehicle used to conduct the attack {16}{17}{18}.
- It is highly likely that past life experiences and personal grievances would feature more explicitly in the motivation of individuals with the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK. Personal grievance was noted in the investigations following high-profile terrorism-related incidents in December, including:
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- According to a law enforcement bulletin seen by the US media, Luigi Mangione was allegedly motivated by resentment at what he called “parasitic” health insurance companies. Reporting suggests that Mangione had suffered debilitating back pain prior to the attack. Although it remains unclear to what extent the attacker’s own health shaped their views of the health insurance industry, it is likely that that the attack was motivated in-part by a personalised grievance {19}.
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- According to the FBI, Jabbar had posted videos on social media indicating that he was inspired by Islamic State prior to the attack. Reporting suggests that records of Jabaar’s most recent divorce demonstrate that he was in financial difficulties as a result of his monthly expenses exceeding his income. There is a realistic possibility that such financial difficulties could have contributed to Jabbar’s radicalisation as well as his decision to conduct an attack {20}.
- The alleged use of a partially 3D-printed firearm in the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson demonstrates that it is likely that 3D-printed weapons present an emerging terrorist threat globally. Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to manufacture or acquire 3D-printed weapons, including:
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- 2024 – Portsmouth – Jack Robinson, 20-years-old, was sentenced to six years and six months in prison for attempting to manufacture a weapon and possessing documents that could be used for preparing an act of terrorism. Robinson had reportedly downloaded more than 500 documents containing information on how to assemble weapons and 3D-printed guns and was at an “advanced stage” of building a semi-automatic rifle. He was reportedly motivated by an Extreme Right-Wing ideology {21}.
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- 2024 – Weston-Super-Mare – Gabriel Budasz, 24, was found guilty of encouraging terrorism and the dissemination of a terrorist publication. Budasz spread racist, homophobic and antisemitic statements online as well as sharing a video containing step-by-step instructions on how to make a viable Improvised Explosive Device (IED). A 3D-printer and 3D-printed weapon were found at Budasz’s home as well as a range of Extreme Right-Wing material {22}.
- There is a realistic possibility that high-profile terrorism-related incidents conducted globally in December 2024 could inspire “copy-cat style” attacks in the UK in the short term. At the time of writing, the UK terrorism threat level has not changed in the wake of these attacks and remains SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is LIKELY {23}.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted an individual or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
For further assessment on the current UK terrorism threat landscape, please see Pool Re’s 2024 Annual Threat Report here.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 06 January 2025
Authors: Oliver Hair & Lucy Hagger,
Threat Analysts
Read Time: 5 minutes
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References
{1} – What To Know About The Gun Found With Luigi Mangione – The New York Times{2} – Luigi Mangione: Who is the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson? – BBC News{3} – Luigi Mangione charged with murder as an act of terrorism after healthcare boss shooting | US News | Sky News{4} – Howden man appears in court over terrorism offence – BBC News{5} – Who is Magdeburg market attack suspect Taleb al-Abdulmohsen? What we know – BBC News{6} – Suspect in German Christmas market attack had history of troubling social media posts that grew increasingly dark{7} –
German official says Christmas market attack suspect shows signs of mental illness – CBS News{8} – Liveticker zum Anschlag in Magdeburg: Faeser nennt Instumentalisierung durch die AfD „widerwärtig“ | FAZ{9} –
At least 14 killed, dozens hurt on Bourbon Street in New Orleans as driver intentionally slams truck into crowd; attacker dead – CBS News{10} – A visual timeline of the New Year’s attack that left at least 14 dead in New Orleans{11} – New Orleans attacker wore Meta smart glasses – what else do we know? – BBC News{12} – Matthew Livelsberger named as driver of Cybertruck that exploded outside Trump hotel: reports | The Independent{13} – London Bridge attack: What happened – BBC News{14} – Westminster attack: What happened – BBC News{15} – Director General Ken McCallum gives latest threat update{16} – What to Know About the New Orleans Truck Attack Suspect – The New York Times{17} – FBI Statement on the Attack in New Orleans{18} – IS flag linked to deadly New Orleans attack is stark reminder dangerous extremist Islamist ideology never went away | World News | Sky News{19} – Luigi Mangione: Who is the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson? – BBC News{20} – New Orleans attacker wore Meta smart glasses – what else do we know? – BBC News{21} – November Strategic Threat Assessment{22} – November Strategic Threat Assessment{23} – What are terrorism threat levels?
German official says Christmas market attack suspect shows signs of mental illness – CBS News{8} – Liveticker zum Anschlag in Magdeburg: Faeser nennt Instumentalisierung durch die AfD „widerwärtig“ | FAZ{9} –
At least 14 killed, dozens hurt on Bourbon Street in New Orleans as driver intentionally slams truck into crowd; attacker dead – CBS News{10} – A visual timeline of the New Year’s attack that left at least 14 dead in New Orleans{11} – New Orleans attacker wore Meta smart glasses – what else do we know? – BBC News{12} – Matthew Livelsberger named as driver of Cybertruck that exploded outside Trump hotel: reports | The Independent{13} – London Bridge attack: What happened – BBC News{14} – Westminster attack: What happened – BBC News{15} – Director General Ken McCallum gives latest threat update{16} – What to Know About the New Orleans Truck Attack Suspect – The New York Times{17} – FBI Statement on the Attack in New Orleans{18} – IS flag linked to deadly New Orleans attack is stark reminder dangerous extremist Islamist ideology never went away | World News | Sky News{19} – Luigi Mangione: Who is the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson? – BBC News{20} – New Orleans attacker wore Meta smart glasses – what else do we know? – BBC News{21} – November Strategic Threat Assessment{22} – November Strategic Threat Assessment{23} – What are terrorism threat levels?