Islamic State Suicide Bombing in Pakistan Kills 63

• It is almost certain the that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan will continue to provide a permissive environment for terrorism-related activity in the long term, due to the region’s porous borders and diminished security following the 2021 withdrawal of allied troops from Afghanistan. Terrorist actors have previously exploited instability in the region to conduct attacks, including:
  • • 2023 – Pakistan – a terrorist actor conducted a Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) attack during prayer at a mosque in the high-security area of Peshawar, Pakistan. Media reporting suggested that there were 80 fatalities and over 200 people were injured.[5]
• It is likely that the terrorism threat within Pakistan would be heightened during the country’s upcoming general election (alleged to be in 2024).[6] Terrorist actors operating in the area have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct politically-motivated terrorist attacks, including:
  • • 2018 – Pakistan – Media reporting suggested that a terrorist actor conducted a PBIED attack against an election rally in the Baluchistan province during the 2018 election campaign. There were 149 fatalities and over 180 were injured.[7]
    • 2013 – Pakistan – Media reporting suggested that frequent attacks conducted by the TTP during the 2013 election campaign led to approximately 170 fatalities.[8]
• It is highly likely that JUI-F would remain a target of IS and its affiliates in the short term due to the party’s close ties with the Afghan Taliban. ISKP considers itself an enemy of the Afghan Taliban and has previously accused the group of not imposing a strict enough Islamic regime in Afghanistan.[9] IS have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against the Afghan Taliban, including:
  • • 2023 – Afghanistan – The Taliban governor of Afghanistan’s northern Balkh province was killed in a PBIED attack conducted by a member of IS.[10]
    • 2022 – Afghanistan – A regional Taliban police chief was killed in a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack conducted by IS in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province.[11]

• Terrorist actors currently operating in the Middle East and Central Asia maintain the intent to project, coordinate and conduct terrorist attacks on the UK mainland. According to US intelligence leaked on the Discord messaging platform in April 2023, ISKP maintain the intent to conduct attacks against Western interests and conduct “aspirational plotting” in Afghanistan as a base of operations.[12]
• At this time, it is unlikely that groups including IS would have the capability to project a directed threat toward the UK due to leadership losses and an overall reduction in global operational capability. Instead, it is highly likely that any terrorist networks currently operating across the Middle East and Central Asia are focused on accessible regional targets.
• It is highly likely that the predominant threat posed by global Islamist terrorist actors continues to be from online radicalisation of vulnerable UK-based individuals with the intent to inspire low-sophistication attacks in the UK.
• There is a realistic possibility that political developments and/or associated terrorism-related activity in Pakistan during the country’s upcoming general election (allegedly 2024) could inspire groups in the UK to conduct highly charged protest actions in the UK.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 30 August 2023