Islamic State Claim Responsibility for Festival of Diversity Attack

• The above incident demonstrates the intent of terrorist actors to conduct attacks at music festivals. It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against music festivals in the UK due to the high number of attendees at festival events and the symbolic value that would be associated with an attack against a high-profile event.

• For further assessment on the threat posed to music festivals in the UK, read Pool Re Solutions’ sector-specific threat assessment for Major Outdoor Music Festivals, here.

• Individuals have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks against music festivals in the UK, including:
  • 2024 – Isle of Wight – A 16-year-old was sentenced to seven years in prison for plotting to conduct an Islamist-inspired terrorist attack against the Isle of Wight festival. The individual had researched the festival repeatedly, as well as weapons, vehicles and stab vests. The individual later researched a specialist education institute on the Isle of Wight as a possible alternative to his initial target {5}.
• It is highly likely that any attack conducted at a music festival in the UK would be conducted by an Islamist-inspired individual due to the ideologically driven intent to conduct indiscriminate attacks against members of the public in the UK. It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the primary terrorism threat in the UK.

• It is highly likely that there is a heightened Islamist terrorism threat throughout Western Europe and the UK at this time as current tensions in the Middle East could lead to the radicalisation of individuals, and at worst, inspire individuals to conduct attacks.

• The extent of the perpetrator’s links to Islamic State remain unclear. However, it is unlikely that the attack was directed and/or coordinated directly by Islamic State. Instead, it is highly likely that the individual became radicalised by Islamic State material online prior to the attack{6}.

• Following its declared territorial defeat in 2017, it is highly likely that Islamic State has split into a number of disparate covert cells and autonomous groups. It is unlikely that Islamic State would regain a comparable level of strength to its peak (approx.. 2014-2017) in the long term. However, it is almost certain that Islamic State would have the intent to claim attacks conducted autonomously in support of its cause.

• It is highly likely that the predominant threat posed by global Islamist actors to the UK mainland at this time is from the online radicalisation of UK-based individuals with the intent to inspire low sophistication attacks in the UK.

• The use of a Bladed Weapon in Soligen, Germany is consistent with recent UK terrorism threat trends, where ease of access to low sophistication methodologies has led to an increase in low sophistication attacks in the UK and overseas.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual or small cell using a low sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 27 August 2024