Increase in Dissident Republican Activity as United States President Visits Northern Ireland

• The 25th anniversary of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement marks a significant milestone in the ongoing peace process in Northern Ireland. It is almost certain that events related to the anniversary of the end of ‘The Troubles’ will continue to stoke tensions between polarised communities and PSNI on an annual basis.
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• It is highly likely that the high-profile visit of US President Joe Biden was seen as an opportunity for current members of dissident groups to receive global media coverage in order to promote their cause. Since the first visit of a US president to Northern Ireland in 1995, every sitting US President has actively engaged with and promoted the peace process through visits to the country during their tenure.
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• It is highly likely that uncertainty around political deadlock in Stormont has been a source of recent escalations in community tension in Northern Ireland. As of May 2022, close election results in Northern Ireland have led to a failure in forming a government at a time in which issues such as the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol have placed increased tension on community cohesion and threatened to undermine the fragile peace deal. Due to current changes in UK legislation regarding Northern Ireland, it is highly unlikely that a new election will be announced until January 2024 at the earliest, leaving greater opportunity for community tensions to escalate.[7]
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• The Northern Ireland-related threat level was raised to SEVERE on 28 March 2023, meaning an attack is HIGHLY LIKELY. This is likely to be reflective of: the evolving threat environment following recent terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland including the shooting of an off duty PSNI officer; the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement and visit of the US president; and the intelligence picture related to the disrupted pipe bomb plot on 11 April 2023.
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• Whilst the threat level has been raised to severe, it is highly unlikely that the threat from Northern Ireland-related Terrorism in Northern Ireland is as severe as the threat posed at the height of ‘The Troubles’ in which the group had the capability to conduct a high volume of major terrorist attacks.
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• Currently, it is highly likely that Northern Ireland-related Terrorist actors continue to have access to high sophistication methodologies such as firearms and improvised and military grade explosive devices that could be used to conduct small attacks e.g., assassination attempts against individuals and targeting police vehicles. However, it is unlikely that they would have the capability to conduct major terrorist attacks such as large-scale explosive attacks against people and property in Northern Ireland.
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• It is highly unlikely that any Northern Ireland-related Terrorist actor would have the capability to project a major terrorist attack against the UK mainland at this time.
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• Whilst it is highly likely that the number and overall capability of individuals associated with Northern Ireland-related Terrorism has significantly reduced since 1998, the peace process in the country is ongoing and subject to sudden change related to political, geo-political and societal developments. As such, it is likely that the threat from Northern Ireland-related Terrorism will continue to reduce gradually in the long term, but the influence of current affairs could drive sudden spikes and periods of instability in which violent acts may become more regular for short periods.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 14 April 2023