France Raises Threat Level after Terrorist Attack

• It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the dominant terrorist threat in Western Europe and the UK at this time. Islamist terrorists have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks in France, including:

• 2020 – Paris – An Islamist terrorist conducted a Bladed Weapons attack against a teacher at a school near Paris. The teacher, who was killed in the attack, was reportedly targeted for showing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in the classroom.[4]

• 2016 – Nice – Islamic State claimed responsibility for a Vehicle as a Weapon attack against crowds on Bastille Day in Nice. The perpetrator drove through crowds for approximately two kilometres before being shot by police. There were 86 fatalities.[5]

• 2015 – Paris – Islamist terrorists conducted a complex high-sophistication attack across Paris. The attack involved Firearms and Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices. There were 130 fatalities and hundreds more were wounded.[6]

• 2015 – Paris – Two Islamist terrorists conducted a Firearms attack against the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a satirical French newspaper in Paris.[7] There were 12 fatalities, and 11 others were injured.[8]

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted by an Islamist terrorist in Western Europe or the UK would be conducted by a small cell or a lone individual using a low sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, or Fire as a Weapon.

• There is a realistic possibility that Islamist terrorists in the UK could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack at this time. E.g., Improvised Explosive Device. The complicated nature of plotting a high-sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunity for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.

• There is a realistic possibility that the Israel-Hamas conflict could act as a driver of terrorism threat in the UK and Europe in the long term as community tensions increase during the conflict and individuals become susceptible to radicalisation towards violence.
  • On 17 October 2023, Director General of MI5 Ken McCallum warned that events in the Middle East could radicalise people towards violence in the UK. The Director General stated that “it has always been the case that would-be-terrorists in the UK draw inspiration through their distorted understanding of what is happening in other countries”.[9]
  • In France, the French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne claimed “the attack against Israel could have been a trigger element” for the recent terrorism-related incident at a school in in France.[10]
  • In the UK, the Community Security Trust (CST), a charity which protects British Jews from antisemitism and related threats, issued a statement that its records showed that antisemitic incidents in the UK have “increased by 581%” since 7 October 2023.[11] The CST recorded 15 incidents of assaults, 14 incidents of damage to Jewish property and 224 related to abusive behaviour since the beginning of the conflict.[12]
• It is almost certain that the Israel-Hamas conflict would lead to an increase in the number of Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) protests conducted across the UK. Media reporting suggests that on 14 October 2023, “tens of thousands” of individuals protested in Manchester, Liverpool, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and London. 15 individuals were reportedly arrested at a protest in London.[13] On 13 October 2023, Palestine Action Group (PAG) claimed responsibility for covering the BBC’s London headquarters with red paint.[14] There is a realistic possibility that individuals conducting NVDA protests relating to the Israel-Hamas conflict could mature to violence in the medium term.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 18 October 2023