February Monthly Terrorism Update

• On 13 January 2024, Paul Martin, 59, was charged with encouragement of terrorism, possession of articles for the purposes of terrorism, and possession of a stun gun. Martin allegedly used social media to call for an armed uprising during the COVID-19 pandemic and allegedly discussed gathering a militia and weapons to attack members of the UK government and police. Martin reportedly possessed bladed weapons, two crossbows, and a stun gun which gave rise to a reasonable suspicion that he intended to use them for the commission, preparation or instigation of terrorist acts. It is likely that Martin was motivated by a Left-Wing, Anarchist, and Single Issue (LASIT) ideology {1}{2}.
• On 19 January 2025, a caravan laden with explosives was found at a residential property in greater Sydney, Australia. Police stated the caravan contained enough emulsion-based explosive, which they believe to be “powergel”, to create a 40-metre blast zone. Powergel is the brand name for a range of explosive products used in the mining industry. There were also reportedly indications that the explosives would be used in “some form of an antisemitic attack” and that a list of Jewish targets was found in the caravan. The investigation remains ongoing {3}{4}{5}.
• On 21 January 2025, Abdiwahid Abdulkadir Mohamed, 33, was sentenced to seven years in prison after he was charged with six counts of possessing documents likely to be useful for committing or preparing an act of terrorism. Mohamed had used two anonymous accounts to send and access instructions on how to make 3D-printed firearms via a private Telegram channel. Forensic experts found that the instructions could have been used to create viable weapons and firearms. During the investigation, officers also found that Mohamed was a member of various Islamist groups on Telegram {6}.
• On 30 January 2025, Jason Savage, 35, was found guilty of planning a terrorist attack against a mosque and bookshop in Small Heath, Birmingham. Prosecutors revealed that Savage had targeted an Islamic cleric associated with a mosque and bookshop because the cleric was an outspoken critic of Islamist terrorism. Savage conducted hostile reconnaissance at the mosque and discussed possible points of entry, as well as likely police response routes. Savage had also researched potential military and police targets. Savage converted to Islam in the 2010s and followed an extreme and violent interpretation of the Salafi movement {7}.

• It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct an attack against mosques in the UK as publicly accessible and highly visible symbols of the Islamic faith.

• It is likely that the predominant threat to mosques in the UK at this time comes from individuals who adhere to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology. However, Savage’s plot demonstrates that there is a realistic possibility that Islamist terrorist actors could also have the intent to target more moderate Islamic institutions that they believe conflict with or oppose their violent interpretation of Islam.

• For further assessment on the threat posed to mosques in the UK, see Pool Re’s Sector Threat Assessment here.

• Savage’s research into potential military and police targets, as well as Martin’s alleged plan to attack police, demonstrates that it is almost certain that terrorist actors in the UK would have the intent to target sites and individuals associated with the UK police and military due to their symbolic value as part of the UK’s Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) and as highly visible representatives of the UK government.

• Terrorist actors have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks against sites and individuals associated with the UK police and military, including:

• • 2023 – Essex – On 02 June 2023, Matthew King, 19, was sentenced to life imprisonment for plotting to conduct a terrorist attack against British soldiers and police officers. King had wanted to travel to Syria to join Islamic State but was unsuccessful. King recorded videos of uniformed police officers at Stratford train station as well as a video of the barracks of the 7th Rifles Regiment in Stratford, east London {8}.

• • 2023 – Newcastle – On 11 July 2023, Luke Skelton, 20, was sentenced to four years in prison for plotting to conduct an Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack. Skelton was initially arrested in October 2021 a month after he took pictures of Forth Banks police station in Newcastle. Skelton reportedly sought to trigger a “racial war” that would kill thousands {9}.

• • 2016 – London – On 23 June 2016, Nadir Syed, 23, was sentenced to life imprisonment for plotting an Islamist-inspired Bladed Weapons attack against a poppy seller on Remembrance Sunday. Syed had purchased a “foot-long knife” that was specifically chosen to decapitate the victim {10}.

• • 2013 – Woolwich – On 22 May 2013, Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale, conducted a Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons attack against a British soldier, Fusilier Lee Rigby, outside of Woolwich barracks in South London. There was one fatality. Both perpetrators were inspired by an Islamist ideology {11}.

• As individuals in the UK spend greater amounts of time online, and material related to conspiracy theories remains easily accessible, the charging of Martin demonstrates that it remains likely that certain individuals would maintain the intent to target sites and individuals associated with the UK government as a result of COVID-19-related online misinformation.

• Individuals have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct attacks in the UK as a result of COVID-19-related misinformation, including:

• • 2024 – Patrick Ruane, 55, of London, was sentenced to five years in prison for encouraging terrorism. Ruane reportedly believed in conspiracy theories about a “hidden agenda” in the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and routinely posted on Telegram in an attempt to incite chat group members to attack COVID-19 vaccination staff, centres, and politicians {12}.

• • 2023 – Oliver Lewin, 38, of Coalville, was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in prison for plotting a terror attack on phone, TV and radio masts across the UK. The individual planned to “topple the government” and believed that the COVID-19 vaccine would cause mass deaths and breakdown of society {13}.

• • 2023 – Two individuals were jailed for a number of terrorism offences and a plot to destroy 5G masts resulting from a subscription to COVID-19-related conspiracy theories. Darren Reynolds, 60, was found guilty of encouraging terrorism by calling for attacks on MPs and Christine Grayson, 59, was found guilty of conspiracy to cause criminal damage against 5G masts {14}.

• The sentencing of Abdiwahid Abdulkadir Mohamed demonstrates it is likely that 3D-printed weapons present an emerging terrorist threat to the UK. Whilst 3D-printed weapons and associated materials have previously been predominantly associated with individuals adhering to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology, according to Sky News, Mohamed is the first Islamist extremist to be sentenced for possession of 3D-printed firearm instructional material {15}{16}.

• Terrorism-related incidents monitored throughout January by Pool Re’s Threat Analysis team showed a significant uptick in antisemitic incidents in Australia. Although not all designated as terrorism, Pool Re’s Threat Analysis team recorded seven separate antisemitic incidents in Australia throughout January. Reporting suggests that at least 10 individuals have been arrested and charged under the Australian Strike Force Pearl operation in response to antisemitic and anti-Israeli vandalism and arson attacks over the past two months {17}{18}.

• It is highly likely that the increase in antisemitic incidents in Australia in January 2025 is directly related to the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East that resulted from the 07 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel.

• It is highly likely that there would be a heightened terrorism threat to sites related to the Jewish community in the UK at this time, driven by the same increased polarisation resulting from the ongoing Middle East crises. In the 12 months after the 07 October attacks, there were 5,583 antisemitic incidents recorded in the UK – including abusive behaviour, threats, assaults, damage and desecration – a 204% year-on-year increase {19}.

• It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against synagogues in the UK as highly visible symbols of the Jewish faith. For further assessment on the threat posed to synagogues in the UK, see Pool Re’s Sector Threat Assessment here.

• Australian authorities are investigating whether the antisemitic incidents conducted throughout January could be linked to foreign actors. On 30 January 2025, Australian police revealed that they had not identified any ideology for those arrested that may have inspired the attacks. Instead, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese alleged that foreign actors could have paid local criminals to commit the antisemitic attacks {20}.

• Although it remains unclear if any such incident would be designated as terrorism in the UK, it is almost certain that foreign states will maintain the intent to similarly influence and destabilise the UK through third-party proxies, organised criminal groups, and covert action in the long term. In the last 12 months, state threat investigations by MI5 have increased by 48% {21}.

• The use of Fire as a Weapon in incidents of arson in Australia in January is consistent with recent UK terrorism threat tends, where ease of access to low sophistication methodologies has led to an increase in low-sophistication attacks in the UK and overseas. Fire as a Weapon is highly likely to be attractive to terrorist actors as a low-cost and low-complexity tactic that requires very little prior planning or training to execute.

• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Fire as a Weapon, Vehicle as a Weapon.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 31 January 2025