December Monthly Terrorism Update

• On 01 November 2024, Piotr Kucharski, 49, was sentenced for possessing a knife at a combat re-enactment event while claiming to be a member of Wagner Group, a proscribed military organisation. The event took place in October 2023 in Stonham Aspal, Suffolk, UK. He also claimed to have previously fought in Ukraine on behalf of the group. Kucharski became aggressive at the event, brandishing a weapon and making threats towards other individuals, including a throat slitting gesture {1}{2}.

• On 07 November 2024, violence unfolded in Amsterdam amidst a Europa League football match between local team, Ajax, and Israeli team, Maccabi Tel Aviv. Fans supporting both teams engaged in violence following the game. At least 62 individuals were arrested. Five people were hospitalised {3}.

• On 11 November 2024, an individual known as Mr Fan, 62, drove a car into groups of people exercising on a sports track outside of a stadium in Zhuhai, China. 35 people were killed and 45 were injured in the attack. Police stated Mr Fan was motivated by unhappiness over his divorce settlement. However, the exact motivation for the attack remains unclear and the incident has not been declared as terrorism at this time {4}{5}.

• On 19 November 2024, a 39-year-old individual drove a vehicle into a crowd of people outside a primary school in Hunan province, China. Several people were injured, including children. Although the motivation for the attack remains unclear, cases of “indiscriminate revenge against society” have been recorded in China in recent months. The incident has not been declared as terrorism at this time .

• On 21 November 2024, Harun Abdul-Malik Yener, 30, from Florida was arrested for plotting to use an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to damage the New York Stock Exchange. Yener planned to conduct the attack the week before the Thanksgiving holiday, which takes place on 28 November. Yener’s reportedly intended to “reboot” and/or “reset” the United States government through his attack. Yener had reportedly attempted to join an anti-government militia group after he had previously considered joining Islamic State in 2015 {6}{7}.

• It is highly likely that the Israel-Hamas conflict and wider Middle East crises will remain a driver of terrorism and societal unrest in Western Europe and the UK in the short term. Although not designated as terrorism, violent disorder in Amsterdam on 07 October 2024 – including targeted attacks against Israeli supporters, anti-Arab chants, the burning of Palestinian flags, and arson attacks against an empty tram and a police car – demonstrate the continued role of the Middle East crises in violent attacks conducted throughout the West {8}{9}{10}.

• It is almost certain that there is a heightened terrorism threat posed to the Jewish community in the UK and Western Europe at this time, driven by increased domestic polarisation as a result of the ongoing Middle East crises. It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against synagogues in the UK as highly visible and publicly accessible symbols of the Jewish faith. For further assessment on the threat posed to synagogues in the UK, see Pool Re’s Sector Threat Assessment here.

• Over the long term, it is highly likely that individuals in the UK would increasingly adhere to ideologies that overlap, converge, or even in some cases contradict. Harun Adbul-Malik Yener’s alleged desire to join an anti-government militia in June 2024 following his alleged consideration to join Islamic State in 2015 demonstrate the intent of individuals to conduct acts of terrorism for varied, confused, and conflicting reasons.

• It is highly likely that past life experiences and personal grievances would feature more explicitly in the motivation of individuals with the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK. As demonstrated by both Vehicle as a Weapon attacks in China in November, there is a realistic possibility that similar acts of “indiscriminate revenge against society” could take place in the UK in the long term as individuals maintain the intent to use easy-to-access methodologies, such as Vehicle as a Weapon, to conduct mass-casualty attacks.

• Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks motivated by a combination of personal grievances and terrorist ideology, including:

• • 2023 – Leeds – On 20 January 2023, Mohammad Farooq, 28, was found in the grounds of St James’s Hospital in possession of a viable Improvised Explosive Device (IED), knives, and an imitation firearm. Prosecutor Jonathan Sandiford KC stated that Farooq’s plan was to detonate the device, then attack as many people as possible with knives before using the imitation firearm to incite police to shoot him dead. Farooq was reportedly inspired by Islamic State propaganda but also held deep seated personal grievances against staff at the hospital which motivated his attack {11}.

• • 2021 – Liverpool – On 14 November 2021, Emad al-Swealmeen, 32, conducted a Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) attack outside Liverpool Women’s Hospital. Detective Superintended Andy Meeks said it was believed that Al Swealmeen intended to go into the hospital and detonate his device, but it was likely that it had exploded earlier than planned. Al Swealmeen was reportedly motivated by a grievance against the British state as well as mental ill health {12}.

• There is a realistic possibility that individuals adhering to an accelerationist ideology could pose an emerging terrorism threat in the UK. Accelerationism refers to a violent strategy in which terrorism is used to hasten societal collapse by provoking reactions from authorities and exacerbating social tensions. Although Harun Adbul-Malik Yener’s intent to “reboot” and/or “reset” the US government was US-based, accelerationism has underpinned many of the recent counterterrorism cases linked to the Extreme Right-Wing in the UK {13}.

• There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors would have the intent to target financial institutions in the UK. Although terrorist attacks in the UK in recent years have demonstrated the intent of terrorist actors to conduct mass-casualty attacks in crowded locations, there is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors could have the intent to cause economic disruption through an attack. Individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent to target financial institutions, including:

• • 2024 – London – Although not designated as terrorism, on 14 January 2024, the Metropolitan Police arrested six individuals over a plot to disrupt the London Stock Exchange. It is alleged that individuals from the non-violent direct action (NVDA) group, Palestine Action, intended to target the London Stock Exchange, causing damage and “locking on” in order to prevent the building from opening {14}.

• • 2011 – London – Mohammed Chowdhury, Shah Rahman, Gurukanth Desai, and Abdul Miah pleaded guilty to plotting to detonate an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in the toilets of the London Stock Exchange. The individuals were reportedly inspired by the preachings of Anwar Al-Awlaki, a senior al-Qa’ida operative at the time {15}.

• The arrest and imprisonment of Piotr Kicharski demonstrates that there is a realistic possibility that heightened geopolitical tensions globally could lead individuals to develop the intent to act on behalf of hostile foreign states in an attempt to influence and intimidate sections of the British public. Although it is unclear if any such act would be designated as terrorism, individuals in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent and capability to conduct malicious acts in the UK on behalf of hostile foreign states, including:

• • 2024 – London – On 22 November 2024, Jack Reeves, 23, pleaded guilty to an arson attack on a Ukraine-linked business and obtaining a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service. Dylan Earl, 20, also pleaded guilty to preparatory conduct and aggravated arson, having previously been accused of carrying out an act on behalf of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. Reeves is the first person to be charged under section 18 of the National Security Act, introduced in response to the threat of hostile activity from states targeting the UK {16}.

• Terrorism-related incidents monitored throughout November 2024 by Pool Re’s Threat Analysis team showed a significant uptick in terrorism-related incidents in Pakistan, accounting for approximately 43% of all global terrorism-related incidents recorded by the Pool Re Threat Analysis team in November 2024.

*Events highlighted are terrorism related incidents which have informed Pool Re Solutions threat analysis throughout November 2024.

• Pool Re’s Threat Analysis team provide analysis on the current threat posed by the Pakistan-based Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) below, as part of their continued efforts to monitor potential emerging terrorism threats which could impact the UK.

INCIDENT SPOTLIGHT

• • On 09 November 2024, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for a Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (PBIED) attack at a train station in the southwestern city of Quetta, Pakistan. At least 26 individuals were killed and more than 50 were injured {17}.

• • The BLA is a separatist group who advocate for an independent Baloch state. A Baloch state would include areas of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. The group operate primarily in southwestern Pakistan in pursuit of an ethno-nationalist, rather than religiously motivated, ideology. According to the Soufan Centre, the BLA primarily target security forces and law enforcement (~65% of attacks in 2023) {18}.

• • It is almost certain that the BLA presents an increasing terrorism threat in Pakistan, demonstrated by the group’s recent uptick in operational capability and sophistication of attacks.

• • It is highly unlikely that individuals associated with the BLA would currently have the intent or capability to conduct attacks against the British mainland. This is almost certainly due to the group’s ethno-nationalist, rather than religiously motivated, ideology and aims.

• • However, there is a realistic possibility that periods of heightened instability in the region could create a permissive environment for terrorist groups to operate more freely and potentially pose a greater threat to the UK in the long-term.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 30 November 2024