Conspiracy Theorist Guilty of Encouraging Terrorism

• As individuals in the UK spend greater amounts of time online, and material related to conspiracy theories remains easily accessible, it is almost certain that misinformation will increasingly feature in the ideologies of terrorist actors seeking to conduct attacks in the UK.  

• In the long term, it is likely that individuals in the UK would move away from traditional terrorism ideologies (E.g., Islamist, Extreme Right-Wing, etc.) and adhere to ideologies that overlap, converge, or even in some cases contradict, as a result of their own perceived frustrations and grievances.  

• It is likely that individuals who regularly consume online misinformation and/or material related to conspiratorial thinking would inhabit similar online spaces to those who adhere to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology.  

• There is a realistic possibility that a small number of individuals that regularly view and engage with online misinformation could develop the intent to conduct terrorist attacks against property or people in the long term. Individuals have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct terrorist attacks in the UK based off misinformation, including:  

• • 2023 – Oliver Lewin, 38, of Coalville, was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in prison for plotting a terror attack on phone, TV and radio masts across the UK. The individual planned to “topple the government” and believed that the COVID-19 vaccine would cause mass deaths and the breakdown of society {5}. 

• • 2023 – Two individuals were jailed for a number of terrorism offences and a plot to destroy 5G masts resulting from a subscription to COVID-19-related conspiracy theories. Darren Reynolds, 60, was found guilty of encouraging terrorism by calling for attacks on MPs and Christine Grayson, 59, was found guilty of conspiracy to cause criminal damage against 5G masts {6}. 

• Whilst it is highly unlikely that terrorist actors in the UK would currently have the intent to target facilities related to the COVID-19 pandemic – due to the removal of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and vaccination centres – it is still likely that certain individuals would maintain the intent to target sites and individuals associated with the UK government as a result of online misinformation. 

• It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing actors have sought to take advantage of individuals spending more time online since the COVID-19 pandemic and have since exploited the online spaces that COVID-19-related conspiracy theorists inhabit {7}. 

• It is highly likely that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will continue to pose a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term and that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat has continued to evolve away from structured groups to a more disparate online threat. For further information on the current Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat, see our deep-dive here. 

• It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors would have the intent and capability to conduct a low-sophistication attack in the UK at this time. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapon, Vehicle as Weapon, Fire as Weapon. 

• As demonstrated by Ruane’s possession of an explosive manual, there is a realistic possibility that Extreme Right-Wing terrorist actors could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack in the UK at this time. However, the complicated nature of planning such a terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there would be a greater opportunity for the UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks. 

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 16 September 2024