Conspiracy theories originating from online forums are becoming increasingly commonplace in mainstream political narratives. In some instances, these conspiracy theories have led to violence offline. This raises a number of questions for both security practitioners and the insurance industry. It is not immediately clear whether acts of violence related to conspiracy theories would be investigated as an act of terrorism, nor whether they would be covered under the Pool Re scheme.
Within traditional ideological drivers of terrorism, there is often a conspiratorial element. For instance, many contemporary far-right ideologies incorporate the so-called ‘Great Replacement theory’, which is part of the broader ‘white genocide’ conspiracy. Such theories purport that white Europeans are being replaced, coordinated by a liberal, globalist elite. Most narratives usually point to France as an example of this, but the UK and other European and Western countries have been targeted by proponents of the ‘Great Replacement’ theory including in Germany, New Zealand, the USA and Norway.
Conspiracy theories propagated by traditional terrorist actors often have a kernel of truth and are often rooted in pseudo-academic literature, such as the aforementioned Great Replacement theory.[1] For example, while ethnic demographics have shifted in certain European countries, through migration and falling birth rates, there is not a cabal of globalist elites orchestrating this.[2] [3]
Nevertheless, there has been a sizable change in demographics over the past fifty years in the UK and other western European countries. By linking this to a faceless, left-wing elite, far-right extremist groups are able to play on the anxieties of certain groups within society and use conspiracy theories like ‘the Great Replacement’ within recruitment propaganda, with some success. At least four attackers worldwide since 2019 have cited the Great Replacement theory in their manifestoes.[4]
Such conspiracy theories are an effective recruitment tool when compared to more traditional far-right ideologies (such as neo-Nazism, white supremacy, or Christian fundamentalism), as a wider cross-section of society are able to better identify and understand such narratives.
By contrast, some of the more recent conspiracy theories that have emerged on online forums have dispensed entirely with pseudo-intellectual properties. Whilst these theories have zero basis when compared to more traditional theories used in terrorist ideologies, they also play on the anxieties of the population by offering explanations for real-world events and are able to draw adherents because of this.
And despite the unbelievable, outlandish elements of these newer theories, some adherents of the theories have mounted attacks in response to them. Most recently in the UK since April 2020, unidentified assailants have partially damaged or completely destroyed over 70 telecommunications towers across the United Kingdom. Police linked these attacks to an online conspiracy theory propagated online that links the spread of the COVID-19 virus to 5G signals.[5] At least 40 telecommunications engineers have also been threated or even attacked.[6] It is worth considering that attacks against telecommunications systems might constitute a terrorist attack under Section 1 (2)(e) of the 2000 Terrorism Act which makes serious disruption or interference with an electronic system a terrorist act if done to intimidate the public and in order to influence the government. Arguably, these actions are very close to that definition and have possibly crossed the line.
More violently, in 2016, a gunman opened fire in a pizza restaurant in Washington DC, ascribing his motives to the debunked ‘Pizzagate’ conspiracy theory. This theory falsely claimed that the restaurant was harbouring a child sex abuse ring led by Hilary Clinton.[7] An Illinois woman was arrested in April 2020, after travelling to New York City with dozens of hunting knives and threatened to kill Joe Biden on live stream, due to Biden’s supposed involvement in the aforementioned trafficking ring.[8]
While these conspiracies advocated a attacking a broad range of targets, this is arguably no different to conventional terrorist attackers who seek to mount an indiscriminate, mass-casualty event. What makes this unique is that with each new theory, a potential new target may emerge, increasing the threat of attack to that particular target category. But the threat of attack may increase or decrease depending on the online popularity and spread of the theory.
Similarly, conspiracy theory-inspired attackers do not seem to have a preference towards one particular methodology, with bladed weapons, firearms, incendiary devices, explosives and arson attacks being used by such offenders worldwide.[9]
There is no discernible trend in whether such attackers have a preference for targeting people over property. Targeting against individuals, business interests or critical national infrastructure seems to be dependent on the theory propagated.[10] Mass casualty attacks are a possibility, but it is assessed that such offenders would be more likely to target individuals or specific business interests.
A key challenge that arises from conspiracy theory-related violence is that there is no clear manner in how such violence is treated by police and judicial services. The Terrorism Act (2000) defines terrorism rather narrowly. The act defines terrorism when as the use or threat is made for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, racial or ideological cause. Conspiracy theory-related violence arguably does not fit within this definition.[11] The only such instance where an attack may be investigated as terrorism is if a proscribed organisation was behind the attack.
As a result, it is possible that counter-terrorism police may not seek to investigate such crimes as terrorist related. This is exemplified by the 70+ attacks against telecommunications towers which were not investigated as terrorism. Separately, it means that under current legislation, such incidents are unlikely to be certified as terrorist in nature, making claims against terrorism insurance policies difficult.
Should a high-impact attack by a conspiracy theorist come to pass, it is possible that counter-terrorism police would lead on the investigation. However, it is still unlikely that the incident would be certified as terrorist in nature, given the restrictive nature of existing legislation.
Given the relatively recent emergence of violence related to these theories, it remains to be seen how the industry will respond. Under current terrorism insurance policies, it is unlikely that such claims would be covered under the Pool Re scheme. However, it is possible that claims would be paid under more conventional property and criminal damage policies.
[1] https://www.isdglobal.orghttps://assets.poolre.co.uk/sitefiles/2019/07/The-Great-Replacement-The-Violent-Consequences-of-Mainstreamed-Extremism-by-ISD.pdf
[2] https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2019/08/deadly-myth-great-replacement
[3] https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/unrest-in-france-november-2005-immigration-islam-and-the-challenge-of-integration/
[4] https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2019/03/15/new-zealand-terrorist-manifesto-influenced-far-right-online-ecosystem-hatewatch-finds
[5] https://www.cnet.com/health/5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-sees-77-mobile-towers-burned-report-says/
[6] https://www.mylondon.news/news/west-london-news/kilburn-stabbing-victim-openreach-engineer-18065323
[7] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/local/wp/2016/12/04/d-c-police-respond-to-report-of-a-man-with-a-gun-at-comet-ping-pong-restaurant/
[8] https://www.insider.com/biden-qanon-supporter-arrested-attemp-live-streaming-trip-to-take-2020-5
[9] Pool Re’s internal database
[10] Pool Re’s internal database
[11] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/11/contents