Author: Becca Stewart,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
As of 9th May 2023, media reporting has suggested that the British Government plans formally to declare the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation within weeks.[1] Proscription of the Russian mercenary force responsible for significant aggressions within the Russia-Ukraine war has allegedly been in development for the past two months. The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company with around 50,000 troops consisting of former soldiers (including from Russia’s special forces), contractors, and recruited convicts drawn out of Russian prisons.[2] The Wagner Group has allegedly been relied upon heavily by Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin in the Ukraine invasion due to heavy losses and recruitment difficulties faced by the Russian army.
The UK imposed sanctions on Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, in 2020, and on the group itself in March 2022 following the initiation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The potential proscription of the group by the UK government follows a vote to proscribe the Wagner Group by the French National assembly in early May 2023,[3] and the US designation of the group as a “significant transnational criminal organisation” earlier this year.[4]
A recent report found that the Wagner Group also played a significant role in destabilising Sudan through the provision of training and weaponry to the warring factions following pro-democracy protests.[5] The report renewed British parliamentarians’ calls for the group to be proscribed as their violent offensives and militancy have spread beyond the borders of the Russia-Ukraine war into Sudan and the Sahel region in West Africa. Proscription of the Wagner Group in the UK as a terrorist organisation would make it a criminal offence to join the group, encourage support for it, attend any of its meetings or display its logo in public.
Assessment
- It is highly likely that the proscription of the Wagner Group would anger its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Russian President Vladimir Putin who has relied on the group’s mercenaries in Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.
- It is almost certain that the Wagner Group will continue to use terrorist tactics including close-targeting IEDs and extreme violence within Ukraine, regardless of whether the UK proscribes the group.
- There is a realistic possibility that the practical impact of a terrorist proscription on the Wagner Group’s operations could lead to a weakening of the organisation through restrictions over movement and support, both socially and economically, and loss of recruits as individuals seek to avoid those restrictions and the moral stigma associated with being part of a proscribed terrorist organisation.
- There is a realistic possibility that Russia and the Wagner Group could take retaliatory action towards the UK, British citizens fighting in Ukraine, and British assets abroad as a result of a UK terrorist designation. The nature of the possible retaliation remains unclear.
- Legal experts have suggested that a terrorist proscription of the Wagner Group by British Government could help to expedite plans by Ukrainian refugees living in the UK to sue the Wagner Group for damages in relation to their role in the displacement of the Ukrainian citizens resulting from the Russian invasion.[6]
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 13 May 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Britain set to ban Russia’s Wagner Group – The Times | Reuters
[2] What is Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries in Ukraine? – BBC News
[3] UK proscribing Wagner group as terrorist ‘will help Ukrainians sue’ | Russia | The Guardian
[4] Russia’s Wagner mercenaries to be labelled terror group like Islamic State in UK | The Independent
[5] Sudan conflict: Wagner mercenary group ‘played role’ in destabilising country (telegraph.co.uk)
[6] UK proscribing Wagner group as terrorist ‘will help Ukrainians sue’ | Russia | The Guardian; Russia’s Wagner group facing UK court action over Ukraine ‘terrorism’ (arabnews.com)
Author: Becca Stewart,
Threat Analyst