Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst
Read Time: 7 minutes
On 17 June 2023, three suspected Islamist terrorists were arrested in Austria for allegedly plotting a terrorist attack against an annual LGBTQ+ pride parade in Vienna. Austrian police revealed that three Austrian nationals of Bosnian and Chechen origin, aged 14, 17 and 20 years old had been arrested approximately one hour before the start of the parade.[1] A photo released by Austrian police suggests that knives, an axe, and firearms were to be used in the attack.[2] The individuals had reportedly been kept under surveillance by Austrian police before attempting to undertake “preparatory actions” for an attack. The individuals are believed to have been radicalised online by Islamic State-linked propaganda.[3]
Event Assessment
- This incident demonstrates the continuing intent of Islamist terrorist actors to conduct mass-casualty attacks in Austria.
- On 2 November 2020, an individual conducted a Firearms attack in Vienna which led to four fatalities and the injury of 23 other people.[4] Since 2020, the Austrian government has sought to reform their intelligence agencies in order to mitigate better the terrorism threat to Austria and Western Europe.[5]
- It is highly likely that the successful disruption of this terrorist attack demonstrates an increased counter-terrorism capability in Austria.
Terrorism Threat to the European Mainland
- At this time, it is highly likely that Islamist terrorism will remain the primary terrorism threat to Western Europe in the long term. During a trip to the US last month, France’s Interior Minister warned of a possible “resumption” of the “Islamist terrorist” threat in Europe.[6] Reporting from Europol suggests that the number of annual arrests of suspected Islamist terrorists by European police agencies has remained constant between 2020 and 2022.[7]
- It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism will continue to present a heightened threat to Europe in the long term. This will almost certainly be perpetuated by the ongoing migrant crisis in southern Europe, the popularity of right-wing or populist government in countries across Europe, political division, societal division, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the continued popularity of extreme religious and political ideologies.
- In the long term, it is almost certain that both Islamist and extreme right-wing ideologies will maintain the intent to conduct attacks against the LGBTQ+ community.
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- 2022 – Oslo – an Islamist-inspired terrorist conducted a Firearms attack against a popular LGBTQ+ venue in Oslo, Norway. There were two fatalities, and eight others were hospitalised. Oslo’s annual Pride parade, planned for the following weekend, was cancelled.[8]
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Terrorism Threat to the UK
- The ideologies, tactics, methodologies, and targeting trends demonstrated by terrorist actors in Europe have previously shared similarities or influenced the actions of potential terrorist actors in the UK.
- It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism will continue to present a heightened threat to the UK in the long term.
- It is highly likely that any Islamist terrorist attack conducted in the UK would feature similar low-sophistication attack methodologies (E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon etc.) and be conducted by a lone individual or small cell as seen in the Austrian foiled plot.
- There is a realistic possibility that Islamist terrorists could have the capability to conduct high-sophistication attacks in the UK using methodologies such as Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or Firearms. However, UK police and security services continue to demonstrate the ability to disrupt high-sophistication terrorism plots.
- It is highly likely that any attack conducted by an Islamist terrorist in the UK would target large crowds and busy publicly accessible locations due to the ideologically driven intent to target indiscriminate attacks against members of the public in the UK.
- The young age-profile of the individuals arrested in the Austrian case demonstrates the increasing susceptibility of young people to online radicalisation and the intent of those aged 18 or under to conduct terrorism-related activity. Individuals aged 18 and under have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks in the UK, including:
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- 2023 – Essex – A 19-year-old was sentenced to life in prison for plotting a terrorist attack against British soldiers and police officers in the UK. The individual reportedly wanted to travel to Syria to join Islamic State and had conducted hostile reconnaissance outside an army barracks, a magistrate’s court, and a railway station.[9]
- 2023 – Derbyshire – A 19-year-old was sentenced to 11-and-a-half years in jail for encouraging terrorism and possessing material for terrorist purposes. The individual had previously praised the 2019 terrorist attacks in New Zealand and his content had been commented on and referenced by the man who murdered ten people in a racially motivated attack in Buffalo, US, in 2022.[10]
- 2022 – Darlington – A 14-year-old was convicted for possessing information useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism. The teenager had reportedly been active on racist online forums and allegedly possessed manuals for making explosives.[11]
- 2022 – Isle of Wight – A 15-year-old was charged for the preparation of terrorist acts. The individual was allegedly plotting a terror attack at the Isle of Wight Festival. It is alleged that the accused was inspired by Islamic State and had researched weapons online, including firearms, vehicles, and a stab vest.[12]
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- It is almost certain that the internet will continue to act as a facilitator of online radicalisation for terrorist actors in the UK and Western Europe in the long term.
- It is almost certain that Islamist and extreme right-wing terrorist actors in the UK maintain the intent to target events and individuals affiliated with the UK’s LGBTQ+ community in the long term.
- Terrorist actors in the UK have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct attacks against the LGBTQ+ community, including:
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- 2021 – London – Heaven, a gay nightclub, was evacuated for the second time after a “suspicious item” was reported. The nightclub had previously been evacuated in May 2021 following an alleged “intentional hoax”.[13]
- 2018 – Cumbria – a 20-year-old with extreme right-wing beliefs was convicted for preparing a terrorist attack against a pub that was hosting a gay pride night. The individual had planned to conduct a Bladed Weapons attack using a machete to target guests attending a pride night for Barrow’s LGBTQ+ support group.[14]
- 1999 – London – An extreme right-wing terrorist conducted three Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks in London over a two-week period. One attack targeted the Admiral Duncan Pub. The Admiral Duncan was located in Old Compton Street, a hotspot for London’s gay community. There were three fatalities and 48 were injured.[15]
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 27 June 2023
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PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Terrorist attack on gay Pride parade foiled in Vienna (telegraph.co.uk)
[2] Vienna Pride parade attack foiled, Austrian police say – BBC News; Terror attack on Vienna pride parade thwarted by Austria’s intelligence agency | Financial Times (ft.com)
[3] Terror attack on Vienna pride parade thwarted by Austria’s intelligence agency | Financial Times (ft.com)
[4] Vienna murders: Four guilty of helping jihadist in terror attack – BBC News
[5] Austria plans intelligence agency reforms after attack | The Independent
[6] French minister warns of resumption of ‘Islamist terrorist’ threat in Europe – POLITICO
[7] Terror attack on Vienna pride parade thwarted by Austria’s intelligence agency | Financial Times (ft.com)
[8] Oslo shooting near gay bar investigated as terrorism, as Pride parade is canceled | CNN; Norway on highest terror alert after two killed in mass shootings | Norway | The Guardian
[9] Terror-plotting Essex teenager jailed for life after mother reports him | Crime | The Guardian
[10] JAILED: Derbyshire teen encouraged terrorism and tried to make a gun | Counter Terrorism Policing
[11] Darlington boy youngest to be convicted of terror offence – BBC News
[12] Teenager charged with terrorism offence – Isle of Wight | Counter Terrorism Policing; Boy, 15, faces trial over alleged Isle of Wight Festival terror plot – BBC News
[13] Heaven nightclub evacuated after reports of ‘suspicious item’ – MyLondon; Drag Race UK stars “shaken up” following bomb threat at Heaven nightclub (gaytimes.co.uk)
[14] Ethan Stables: Bisexual terrorist who hated himself – BBC News
[15] BBC ON THIS DAY | 30 | 1999: Dozens injured in Soho nail bomb
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Junior Threat Analyst