Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 24 August 2024, an individual conducted a Fire as a Weapon attack at the Beth Yaacov synagogue in La Grande-Motte, France. Reporting suggests that the individual started fires at two entrances to the synagogue and two vehicles in its car park were set alight. One of the vehicles reportedly contained at least one gas canister and exploded. A police officer was injured {1}. Prosecutors stated that the male suspect was recorded on surveillance fleeing the site carrying a Palestinian flag and a firearm {2}. The suspect was later arrested following an exchange of gunfire with police. President Emmanuel Macron described the incident as “an act of terror” {3}.
Event Assessment
- Whilst the suspect’s motive for the attack remains unconfirmed at this time, it is likely that the Israel-Hamas conflict formed part of his motivation, as demonstrated by the Palestinian flag worn during the attack and the target’s association with the Jewish faith. It is almost certain that the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict will act as a driver of UK terrorism threat in the short to medium term as individuals may become inspired to conduct attacks in response to the current conflict.
- It is highly likely that the threat posed to members of the Jewish community has increased as a result of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. A report released by The Community Security Trust revealed that between January and June 2024, there were 1,978 instances of anti-Jewish hate recorded across the UK, the highest ever number recorded between January and June. Instances of damage and desecration to Jewish property increased in the same period by 246% compared to last year {4}{5}.
- It is almost certain that terrorist actors would have the intent to conduct attacks against synagogues in the UK as highly visible and publicly accessible symbols of the Jewish faith. For further assessment on the threat posed to synagogues in the UK, see Pool Re’s Sector Threat Assessment here.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted against the Jewish community in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual inspired by an Extreme Right-Wing or Islamist ideology due to the ideologically driven intent to conduct attacks against members of the Jewish community.
- The use of Fire as a Weapon is consistent with recent UK terrorism threat trends, where ease of access to low sophistication methodologies has led to an increase in low-sophistication attacks in the UK and overseas. Fire as a Weapon is highly likely to be attractive to terrorist actors as a low-cost and low-complexity tactic that requires very little prior planning or training to execute.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 28 August 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst