Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 30 July 2024, Anjem Choudary, 57, was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 28 years for directing a terrorist organisation and encouraging support for a terrorist organisation following a joint investigation between MI5, the Metropolitan Police Service, the New York Police Department (NYPD), and Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) {1}{2}. Each of the charges related to the proscribed organisation, al-Muhajiroun.
Anjem Choudary helped found al-Muhajiroun in 1996 and continued to lead the group when its spiritual leader, Omar Bakri Muhammad, fled to Lebanon after the 7/7 bombings in 2005. Al-Muhajiroun was proscribed as a terrorist organisation in 2006 for inciting terrorism but has operated under a number of different names since. 11 of its offshoots, including “Islam4UK” and “Muslims Against Crusades”, have been proscribed by successive home secretaries {3}. Al-Muhajiroun global branches, including “Shariah4Beglium”, which is alleged to have played a role in the radicalisation of the 2015 Paris and Bataclan attackers {4}.
Prior to his arrest in July 2023, Choudary had been released early from a five-year sentence for inviting support for Islamic State in October 2018. Following the end of license conditions that prevented him from using the internet, Choudary began disseminating ideological lectures that raised concerns within the intelligence community that Choudary was seeking to recruit a new generation of followers. Choudary began preaching online to a small group of associates called the “Islamic Thinkers’ Society (ITS) in New York in June 2022. Within a year, Choudary delivered over 40 lectures to both domestic and international audiences {5}. The ITS had been infiltrated by two US undercover officers who recorded Choudary’s speeches and were told by a member of ITS that the group was “the remnants of al-Muhajiroun” {6}.
Choudary has previously been linked to several UK terrorists, including Michael Adebolajo, the killer of Fusilier Lee Rigby in 2013, and Khuram Butt, the leader of the 2017 London Bridge attacks. Members of al-Muhajiroun have reportedly been linked to at least 21 different terrorist plots and a large number of Choudary’s associates travelled to Syria following his endorsement of Islamic State. In a lecture on 26 February 2023, Choudary reportedly told his audience: “Is terrorism part of the deen (faith)? Yes even more, horrifying is part of the deen, even to horrify the people” {7}{8}.
Event Assessment
- It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the predominant threat to the UK at this time.
- Although it is unlikely that global Islamist groups, such as al-Qa’ida and Islamic State, currently have the capability to conduct a direct, coordinated attack against the UK mainland, it is highly likely that Islamist ideologues in the UK and abroad maintain the intent and capability to inspire vulnerable individuals to conduct attacks in the UK.
- It is almost certain that extremist groups in the UK would continue to pose a terrorism threat through their role in the radicalisation of vulnerable individuals in the UK. Whilst the group was officially proscribed in 2006, it is highly likely that members of al-Muhajiroun continue to operate within disparate covert cells within the UK and abroad and contribute to the radicalisation of vulnerable individuals.
- It is likely that a growing number of children and young adults in the UK would be susceptible to radicalisation by Islamist ideologues. In November 2022, Muhammed Hamzah Heyder Khan, a 17-year-old from Birmingham, was arrested on suspicion of trying to join Islamic State in Afghanistan. Reporting suggests that Khan had received advice over WhatsApp from Choudary on how to avoid checks on his phone when he left the country and had specifically described Choudary as an inspiration {9}{10}.
- There is a realistic possibility that any Islamist-inspired terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time could be directly connected to, or associated with, al-Muhajiroun or former al-Muhajiroun members. It is alleged that al-Muhajiroun has been linked to the majority of significant Islamist terrorist attacks in the UK since its formation, including: the 2013 murder of Lee Rigby, the 2017 London Bridge attack, and the 2019 Fishmongers’ Hall attack {11}.
- It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an Islamist-inspired individual or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 30 July 2024
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
-
- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
-
- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst