Author: Becca Stewart ASyI,
Threat Analyst
Read Time: 3 minutes
On 23 July 2023, media reporting suggested that British Islamist preacher Anjem Choudary was charged with three terrorism offences in relation to proscribed terrorist group al-Muhajiroun (ALM), a group founded and previously led by him.[1]
Following his arrest on 17 July 2023, Choudary is facing charges of being a member of a proscribed organisation, directing a terrorist organisation, and addressing meetings to encourage support for a proscribed organisation.
Reports suggest that since June 2022, Choudary had allegedly been delivering regular lectures to the Islamic Thinkers Society, which the Crown Prosecution Service’s Counter Terrorism Division has alleged is an offshoot of al-Muhajiroun.[2] The lectures reportedly spoke to ideas on establishing an Islamic State in Britain and how to radicalise others.
A second individual was arrested on 17 July 2023 at Heathrow airport after arriving on a flight from Canada. They have also been charged with membership of a proscribed organisation. It is alleged that the individual had been a member of al-Muhajiroun for two years and had helped to set up the group’s Canadian branch. They are accused of “in effect working for” Choudary.[3]
Assessment
- It is almost certain that Choudary poses a significant threat to the UK through his radicalisation activity. This reportedly includes over 100 or more people from the UK.[4] It is almost certain that extreme individuals, such as Choudary, would continue to have the intent and capability to facilitate the radicalisation of vulnerable individuals towards terrorism in the UK in the long term.
- Anjem Choudary has previously been linked to multiple major terrorist attacks such as, the 2017 Westminster attack conducted by an individual with links to al-Muhajiroun, Khalid Masood, and the murder of Lee Rigby in 2013, conducted by Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale. Choudary has also been linked with several foiled terrorism plots in the UK.[5]
- In 2016, Choudary was sentenced to five and a half years in prison for encouraging support for the proscribed global terrorist group, Islamic State.[6] The present charges, if followed by a conviction, would place Choudary in the minority of offenders who commit further terrorist offences following release from prison.
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- In the UK, research has previously shown that terrorist recidivism rates for convicted terrorist actors is less than 5%, which is significantly lower than the overall UK recidivism rate (encompassing all crimes including terrorism) in which around 45% of all prisoners will reoffend within a year of release.[7]
- It is highly unlikely that a further conviction would change Choudary’s beliefs in an extreme version of Islam and would deter him from engaging in or encouraging extremist and terrorism-related activity.
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- It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism will continue to pose the primary terrorism threat to the UK in the long term.
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 07 August 2023
PHIA Scale
The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.
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- Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
- Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
- Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
- Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
- Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
- Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
- Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.
Time Spans
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- Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
- In the next 12 months.
- Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
- Long Term: 5+ Years.
End Notes
[1] Islamist preacher Anjem Choudary appears in court over terror offences | UK news | The Guardian
[2] Anjem Choudary in court over ‘terror group’ charges – BBC News
[3] Anjem Choudary in court over ‘terror group’ charges – BBC News
[4] Ibid.
[5] Revealed: how Anjem Choudary influenced at least 100 British jihadis | UK security and counter-terrorism | The Guardian ; IntelBrief: The Release of Anjem Choudary – The Soufan Center
[6] Anjem Choudary jailed for five-and-a-half years for urging support of Isis | UK security and counter-terrorism | The Guardian
[7] Convicted terrorists less likely to reoffend than other criminals – study | UK security and counter-terrorism | The Guardian
Author: Becca Stewart ASyI,
Threat Analyst