Activist convicted of conspiracy to commit criminal damage whilst protesting for Palestine Action Group

• It is highly likely that the Palestine Action Group will continue its highly disruptive ongoing campaign against any business or site with links to Elbit Systems until the company leaves the UK or the group runs out of individuals willing to conduct disruptive protest actions due to arrest or loss of support.

• It is almost certain that the Palestine Action Group will increase the frequency of its protest efforts in line with any periods of increased tension or escalation in the Israel-Palestine situation. This is highly likely to include protests against business and sites outside of the Elbit Systems network.

• It is almost certain that the Palestine Action Group will continue to seek to work with other protest groups that hold similar ideological positions in order to conduct a higher frequency of highly disruptive protests e.g. In February 2021, the Palestine Action Group conducted a joint protest against an Elbit Systems linked property with members of the Extinction Rebellion North Sub-Group.[6]

• It is unlikely that any highly disruptive protest group in the UK would have the intent to conduct an act that could be designated as terrorism by the UK government at this time.
• It is almost certain that some highly disruptive protest groups in the UK have the intent to conduct actions that lead to the destruction of property at business and government sites across the UK.

• At this time, there is a remote chance that any active protest groups in the UK have the intent to conduct protest actions that cause harm to any individuals. However, some groups have previously demonstrated a lack of empathy towards ill or injured individuals disrupted by protest actions. E.g., an Insulate Britain spokesperson demonstrated limited contrition after one woman allegedly had her condition significantly worsened after not receiving timely treatment for a stroke due to a protest by the group that caused significant delay on the M25 motorway (London).[7]

• It is likely that any protest related incident that meets the threshold to be designated as terrorism would be conducted by self-initiated, radicalised individuals with association to protest groups. It is highly likely that any individual would seek to target infrastructure, buildings or vehicles as part of this protest e.g., radicalised eco protester targeting an oil terminal. There is a realistic possibility that individuals associated with extreme right wing protest groups could seek to target individuals as part of any terrorist attack e.g., radicalised extreme right wing individual targeting individuals with links to refugee or LGBTQIA communities.

• In the long term, there is a realistic possibility that some, more extreme protest groups could seek to conduct acts that meet the threshold to be designated as terrorism. Any escalation would almost certainly be driven by a failure of targeted businesses and government to meet the demands of the protest group.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 30 May 2023