Pool Re’s Annual Threat Report explores the key terrorism trends and events of 2024, provides outlooks for 2025, and assesses the possible drivers of UK terrorism threat going forward.

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• The UK terrorism threat level is SUBSTANTIAL, this means an attack is LIKELY.
• As of 12 December, there has been one confirmed terrorist attack in the UK in 2024.
• 13% of all those being investigated by MI5 for involvement in UK terrorism are under 18-years-old.
• It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the primary terrorist threat to the UK.
• It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will remain a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
• Between March 2017 and October 2024, there have been 43 late-stage attack plots disrupted by UK police and security services.
• In the last 12 months, police and security serviceshave reportedly disrupted three late-stage attack plots two Islamist inspired plots and one Extreme Right-Wing inspired plots.
• It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual or small cell using a low-sophistication methodology. E.g., Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon, etc.
• There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors could have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication attack in the UK at this time. E.g., Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) (Placed/Person-Borne) or a marauding attack with Firearms. The complicated nature of plotting a high-sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunity for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks.
• There is a remote chance that terrorist actors would have the capability to conduct a significant Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack at this time as a result of the significant barriers in the acquisition, production, and delivery of a device of that size.

• Threat Actors
  • Islamist terrorism
  • Extreme right-wing terrorism
  • Left-wing, anarchist, and single-issie terrorism
  • Norther Ireland-related terrorism
  • State threats
• Terrorist methodologies
• Global terrorism
• Emerging drivers of terrorism threat
  • Israel-Hammas conflict
  • Climate change
  • Refugee crisis
  • Cost of living crisis
  • Global instability
  • Syria
  • Emerging technologies
• Outlook for 2025