Terrorgram Proscribed as a Terrorist Organisation

Apr 26, 2024 | Threat Analysis, Threat Landscape

Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst

Read Time: 3 minutes 

On 26 April 2024, the Terrorgram collective was proscribed as a terrorist organisation in the UK, meaning that it is now a criminal offence to belong to, publicly support, and/or invite support for the group {1}. The Terrorgram collective is an online Extreme Right-Wing network of individuals who produce and disseminate violent propaganda to encourage those who consume its content to engage in terrorist activity. The collective promotes the collapse of the Western world and a “Race War” through violent acts of terrorism, glorifying previous Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attacks and targeting young individuals to adopt their ideology {2}. The collective was previously credited by the perpetrator of the 2022 Slovakia attack at an LGBTQ+ nightclub shooting and is composed of individuals adhering to neo-fascist and militant accelerationist ideologies {3} {4}. The UK is the first country in the world to proscribe the Terrorgram collective and the group is the first online terrorist network to be proscribed in the UK.

Event Assessment

    • It is almost certain that Extreme Right-Wing terrorism will continue to grow and evolve as a significant terrorism threat in the UK in the long term.
      • It is highly likely that the Extreme Right-Wing terrorism threat has continued to evolve away from structured groups, such as the proscribed organisation National Action, to a more disparate online threat, further complicating the detection of affiliated actors and plots.
        • It is highly likely that members of the Terrorgram collective would seek to conceal any future communications and activities associated with the group following its proscription, moving to new and uncompromised online spaces in order to avoid detection by UK security services.
          • It is highly likely that children and young adults would remain at risk of online radicalisation by Extreme Right-Wing organisations and other online collectives. Although there have been no cases of a successful terrorist attack conducted by a child or teenager in the UK to date, children and teenagers inspired by an Extreme Right-Wing ideology have previously demonstrated the intent to conduct terrorist attacks and terrorism-related activity in the UK, including:
              • 2024 – Sussex – An teenager who adhered to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology reportedly plotted to conduct an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack against worshippers at a synagogue in East Sussex. The individual had allegedly annotated diagrams of the synagogue on his phone and held “racist and white supremacist” views, which he planned to act on when the synagogue was most busy. The trial continues {5}.
                • 2023 – Keyleigh – A 17-year-old who adhered to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology was sentenced to 10 years in prison for offences including plotting a terrorist attack against a mosque. The perpetrator had conducted hostile reconnaissance at a mosque in Keighley, contacted a UK-based individual in order to buy a weapon, and written a “detailed plan for carrying out a terrorist attack” {6}.
                  • 2023 – Derbyshire – A teenager who adhered to an Extreme Right-Wing ideology was sentenced to 11-and-a-half years in a young offender’s institution for encouraging terrorism and possession of material for terrorist purposes. The individual published a significant amount of far-right terrorist material online. One of the individual’s followers later conducted a racially motivated mass shooting in Buffalo, New York, and had reportedly given the UK-based individual a “shout-out” before conducting the attack {7} {8}.
                  • It is almost certain that individuals inspired by an Extreme Right-Wing ideology would have the capability to conduct a low sophistication attack in the UK at this time. E.g., Fire as a Weapon, Bladed or Blunt Force Weapons, Vehicle as a Weapon.
                    • It is highly likely that any Extreme Right-Wing terrorist attack would target sites and individuals associated with the UK government, online and traditional media companies, and minority groups with protected characteristics. E.g., LGBTQIA+, migrant communities, religious minorities, and more.

                      Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 26 April 2024

                        PHIA Scale

                        The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.

                          • Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
                          • Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
                          • Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
                          • Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
                          • Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
                          • Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
                          • Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.

                          Time Spans

                            • Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
                            • In the next 12 months.
                            • Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
                            • Long Term: 5+ Years.

                        Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
                        Threat Analyst

                        Read Time: 3 minutes

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