Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange

Jan 15, 2024 | Single Issue Terrorism, Threat Analysis

Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
Threat Analyst

Read Time: 3 minutes 

On 14 January 2024, the Metropolitan Police arrested six individuals over a plot to disrupt the London Stock Exchange. It is alleged that individuals from Palestine Action intended to target the London Stock Exchange, causing damage and “locking on” in order to prevent the building from opening.[1] The group reportedly intended to climb on top of two revolving doors at the front of the building with red paint-filled fire extinguishers, before locking their necks to the entrance using bike locks. Other activists reportedly intended to lock themselves to one another in front of the building’s main and back entrances.[2] It is alleged that the plot’s leader stated that the incident was “the start of a week of action against different institutions in Britain that are complicit of facilitating Israeli apartheid against the Palestinians”.[3] The investigation reportedly was launched from information passed to the Metropolitan Police by the Daily Express on 12 January 2024 after a reporter posed as a potential new member of the group.[4] The investigation remains ongoing.

Assessment

    • It is almost certain that Palestine Action would have the intent to increase the frequency and severity of its Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) campaign amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and continue to pose a significant threat to business continuity and security at sites with links to the state of Israel across the UK.
    • It is almost certain that Palestine Action group would continue to aim the majority of its Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) campaign against Elbit Systems and affiliated businesses in the medium to long term. The group alleges that Elbit Systems is the largest weapons provider for the Israeli military and has targeted the organisation consistently as part of its “Shut Elbit Down” campaign.
    • Activists from Palestine Action have previously conducted extremely disruptive and, at times violent, protests at targeted sites across the UK, including:
      • 2023 – Wales – An activist affiliated with Palestine Action was convicted of conspiracy to commit criminal damage following a pro-Palestine protest at the factory of an electronics manufacturer in eastern Wales in December 2022. The activists reportedly entered the factory floor before smashing computer screens, spraying paint, and setting off smoke grenades. The protest reportedly caused up to £1.2 million of damage.[5]
    • There is a realistic possibility that certain individuals associated with Non-Violent Direct Action (NVDA) protest groups could mature to violence in the long term if and when their demands are not met. It is highly likely that any protest-related terrorist attack would be conducted by an individual affiliated with, but not directed by, an organised protest group.
    • To be designated as terrorism, it is almost certain that any violent protest act would have to be an act so severe that it cannot be ignored politically.
    • It is highly likely that any terrorist act conducted by an individual affiliated with an organised protest group would be conducted against buildings or other infrastructure. It is highly unlikely that individuals affiliated with an organised protest group would target members of the public at this time.

      Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 15 January 2024

        PHIA Scale

        The “Probability Yardstick” (below) is a standardised instrument used to provide professional intelligence assessments. Judgements made using the yardstick are relative and reflect the analyst’s confidence in their findings and assessments.

          • Almost Certain: An event is assessed to have a greater than 90% chance of occurring.
          • Highly Likely: An event is assessed to have a 76% to 90% chance of occurring.
          • Likely: An event is assessed to have a 55% to 75% chance of occurring.
          • Realistic Possibility: An event is assessed to have a 40% to 54% chance of occurring.
          • Unlikely: An event is assessed to have a 25% to 39% chance of occurring.
          • Highly Unlikely: An event is assessed to have an 10% to 24% chance of occurring.
          • Remote Chance: An event is assessed to have a less than 10% chance of occurring.

          Time Spans

            • Short Term: 0 – 6 Months.
            • In the next 12 months.
            • Medium Term: 12 months – 5 Years.
            • Long Term: 5+ Years.

        Author: Oliver Hair ASyI,
        Threat Analyst

        Read Time: 3 minutes

        To receive regular updates about Terrorism Threat and Risk Management, please sign up to our newsletters now.

        Recently Published

        Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State

        UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced

        Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre

        Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism

        “Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        “Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot

        Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison

        Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation
        Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation

        Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel

        Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange
        Single Issue Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange

        Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot

        UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences
        Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences

        Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters
        State Threat Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters

        New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals
        Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

        New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals

        Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East
        Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East

        Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot
        Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot

        How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period
        Blog Security

        How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period

        Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris
        Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris

        2023 Annual Threat Report
        Annual Report Threat Landscape

        2023 Annual Threat Report

        Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack
        Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack

        Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences
        Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

        Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences