POOL REINSURANCE

MODELLING terrorism risk

Our specialist team of actuaries devise, create and utilise expert modelling solutions to accurately evaluate, quantify and price terrorism risk in the UK.

market leading risk modelling

Our specialist team of actuaries devise, create and utilise expert modelling solutions to accurately evaluate, quantify and price terrorism risk in the UK. A deep understanding of the latest threat landscape, combined with comprehensive data sourced from government, academia, insurers, security and defence sectors helps inform our modelling.

Our unique position has enabled us to accelerate and enhance our capabilities: we provide bespoke modelling solutions to solve different aspects of the terrorism risks your business might face in the future, particularly for novel attack types such as Cyber, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN).

Our Risk Modelling services provide:

Expertise

The expertise to build and deploy modelling tools and techniques that can be adopted by Pool Re Members, (re)insurers and the capital markets to inform their view of terrorism risk and how to price it.

Insight

Our risk modelling capabilties provide unique insight and technological advances. This increased confidence in terrorism modelling helps provide the foundation for private market capacity to grow.

Visualisation

By visualising our Members’ risks, we are able to provide quick estimations of loss following an event by supplying ‘shape files’ of cordons within which exposure may be affected.

Case study 1: non damage business interruption

Situation: Multiple incidents in 2017, in particular the London Borough Market attack, highlighted the lack of coverage for businesses who were denied access, unable to operate or closed due to police cordons.

Solution: Having identified this gap in coverage we worked with government to change the scope of cover our Members could offer. We built and parameterised a stochastic model that demonstrated the range of scenarios that could affect policyholders and what this could mean to individual Member insurers. The parameterisation of the model involved interviews with counter terrorism specialists drawing on their experience of cordon characteristics.

Benefit & Result: Interested members had a starting point of how Pool Re considered pricing this business using a market representative perspective; and could leverage on this as necessary when considering their own pricing. Pool Re remain happy to work with members to tailor such output for their individual needs.

Case study 2: Management of major loss

Situation: What would happen in the event of a major loss? How could Pool Re respond, how many members could be involved? Would there be sufficient loss adjusters in the market?

Solution: Working with an independent consultancy, a realistic major loss scenario was derived. Pool Re built an independent view of the damage and losses arising from that event, estimating which members would suffer claims, how many policies would be affected. This information fed directly into the Claims Team, to help identify internal and external resource requirements.

Benefit & Result: Claims Team were able to better understand and quantify demands within the industry in the event of a major loss.

Case study 3: Data collection and accuracy

Situation: Everyone is aware of how the accuracy of data behind any model will affect the results from that model. London market data is well known within the industry to lack quality, as members grapple with inflexible legacy systems and the adoption of industry data schemas lacks traction. Better, more accurate data can help drive more accurate modelling and hence lower insurance cost.

Solution: Through the design of a Member Data Tools, first rolled out in 2017 and enhanced annually, the accuracy of Pool Re data has continued to improve from 67% at full postcode level to 92% in 2020. One particular tool aims to highlight errors within data submissions before they are sent to Pool Re, and frees up time spent on trivial data scrubbing errors to allow concentration on the consistency of programme representations and large risks.

Benefit & Result: Pool Re is more able to understand the composition of the risks it and its members are exposed to. This translates into better pricing by Pool Re’s retrocessionaires, due to lower loadings for data uncertainty.

Recently Published

Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Russia: Highly Likely Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack Conducted by Islamic State

UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

UK: New Definition of Extremism Announced

Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Left-Wing Anarchist Guilty of Preparing Acts of Terrorism

Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Three Charged with Attack Plot Against Islamic Education Centre

“Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

“Andrew Tate Admirer” Jailed Following University Attack Plot

Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Islamist Terrorist Sentenced to a Minimum of Five Years in Prison

Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation
Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

Home Office proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation

Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Vehicle as a Weapon and Bladed Weapons Attack in Israel

Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange
Single Issue Terrorism Threat Analysis

Six Arrested Over Plot to Disrupt London Stock Exchange

Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Individual Sentenced to Life in Prison for Attack Plot

UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences
Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

UK Podcast Hosts Sentenced for Terror Offences

Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters
State Threat Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

Individual Sentenced After Hostile Reconnaissance at Iran International UK Headquarters

New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals
Threat Analysis Threat Landscape

New Statistics Show Increase in Prevent Referrals

Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot
Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

Individual Jailed for Hyde Park Firearms Plot

Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East
Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

Seven Individuals Arrested Over Terror Plots Linked to the Middle East

How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period
Blog Security

How to Stay Safe During the Festive Period

Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris
Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

Islamist Terrorist Conducts Bladed and Blunt Force Weapons Attack in Paris

2023 Annual Threat Report
Annual Report Threat Landscape

2023 Annual Threat Report

Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack
Right Wing Terrorism Threat Analysis

Former British Soldier Found Guilty of Preparing Right-Wing Terrorist Attack

Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences
Islamist Terrorism Threat Analysis

Suspected UK Member of Islamic State Sentenced for Terrorism Offences