Matt Jukes QPM - Insights from the Head of UK Counter Terrorism Policing

Host - Oliver Hair

Hello and welcome to Totally Terrorism, a Pool Re podcast. My name is Oliver Hair, a Threat Analyst at Pool Re. In this episode, we're joined by Assistant Commissioner Matt Jukes, the Head of Counter Terrorism Policing.

In this episode, we’ll explore Matt’s own thoughts on the UK terrorism threat landscape, the increasing involvement of young offenders in Counter Terrorism Policing’s casework, and how Counter Terrorism Policing has had to change in line with an evolving and enormously diverse range of terrorism ideologies, methodologies and actors.

We hope you enjoy this episode of Totally Terrorism, and if you would like to hear future episodes, please subscribe through your streaming app of choice or sign up for regular updates through poolre.co.uk/signup. 

Please note, this episode was recorded on the 16th of April 2025.

Matt Jukes, welcome to Totally Terrorism.

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

Well, thank you very much for the opportunity. I look forward to the conversation.

Host - Oliver Hair

Thank you very, very much for coming on the podcast. I thought before we begin, could you give our listeners a bit of an intro about yourself and your background?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

Yeah, well, I've been involved in counter terrorism work since 2001. In fact, I went into a Police Special Branch Intelligence Unit the week before 9/11. Wind forward to today and I'm the National Lead, the Head of Counter Terrorism Policing, for the UK. We work through nine units across England and Wales and very closely with Scotland and Northern Ireland, and also internationally. So that's, that's the role that keeps me focused on the kind of threats you've talked about before on the podcast.

Host - Oliver Hair

That’s great, thanks Matt. I really want the focus of today’s conversation, if we can, to be on your own understanding of terrorism threat. But also, your own assessment of the terrorism threat landscape here in the UK today. You mentioned that you started out in policing in 2001, just before 9/11, could we perhaps explore how terrorism has changed during your time in policing, before we then go on to explore the threats we face today?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

It is worth reflecting on that period because we've seen a shift. Obviously in 9/11 you saw that incredibly sophisticated, internationally coordinated, and directed plot. And we've seen other examples of that since. We saw, 20 years ago, devastating attacks in London. And then you wind forward and you see the development of a caliphate and the draw for people to both travel in the middle of the last decade, but also the impact of that across the world. Much has changed and I'll come back to some of those features…the internet, the involvement of young people. 

One thing which is true is that those big, sophisticated groups were heavily suppressed by law enforcement, by intelligence activity, by military activity in the last decade. But they are…they're down, but not out. You know, we have to be very alive to the enduring risk that organised international terrorist groups present and, of course, organised sophisticated domestic groups as well. 

But a significant shift over that period has been the development of what in the media you might hear referenced as “lone wolves”. We don't like that glamorising language, so we talk about lone actors or Self-Initiated Terrorists (SITs). That has been a tremendous shift in the last years. So that when I started my career, people were typically organised in groups. They would come together physically, most often. Now, so much more is happening through that connection online. 

The reality of today's threat, as it manifests, then, is that the biggest threat by volume is from those Self-Initiated Terrorists (SITs). Roughly 70-75% of our case work focused on those who are inspired by Daesh, by al Qaeda…the so-called Islamist extremist terrorist threat. And the remainder is made-up largely of Extreme Right-Wing terrorist casework, which again, has grown over the period. And then a very small percentage of cases where the ideology or motivation is more confused and unclear, and that in itself is a growing area of concern.

Host - Oliver Hair

That’s fascinating, and I’d like to pick up on those confused or unclear motivations that you have mentioned a bit later on if we can. You also mentioned there the transition from a larger, more sophisticated, and perhaps organised group to the Self-Initiated Terrorist, as you term it. If, as you say, those larger, more organised entities are “down, but not out”, how has the capability of terrorist actors in the UK changed also whilst you have been in policing?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

Well, there are two questions really in that. One is, where that capability is today in terms of how sophisticated or otherwise the terrorist threat looks. How sophisticated the actors involved in that look. And the other is, how available the access to that capability is. So, when I started my career, if you wanted to understand terrorist methodology, or you wanted to get deeper into extremist ideology, you would typically travel for that, particularly if you were interested in the Islamist terrorist ideologies. People were travelling internationally for that. If you wanted to know how to manufacture an explosive device, if you wanted to understand how to, you know, carry out an attack based on the experience of others, typically, that was done by meeting face to face and a lot of that through that travel which had taken place. 

All of that now, the radicalising ideology, the technology, the how you might carry out an attack, and the inspiration, validation or direction to do that, can basically all take place in somebody's bedroom and online. And so, at present, the kind of capabilities, you know, we see emerging are those around 3D-printed firearms. We've had a number of cases, including some which have been prosecuted. We prosecuted a case in 2023 that involved a drone being developed by an engineering student. So, we know internationally from conflict zones that those kind of technologies are emerging. And of course, you know, one of the realities in the UK is because firearms are thankfully still difficult to access, that pushes individuals towards 3D-printing. 

But the other thing it does, and the thing which is quite an enduring risk for us now, is that you can have a devastating effect without that level of sophistication. And so we've seen over the last decade and more, Vehicles as a Weapon being used increasingly and obviously knives used extensively in terrorist incidents over those years. So, we see a combination of an ever present risk that individuals can access more sophisticated methodologies by insights they can get online, and we work incredibly hard to shut that access down. But then also a reality that we face the lower sophistication, but nevertheless really deadly, intent of others. 

I think that takes us into, and its interesting we're talking sort of through the lens of Pool Re and Pool Re working very closely with industry and worki ng with us on protective security projects through the CT Alliance…Protective Security Research and Development, which is funded. It means that you need to have a last line of defence against the whole range of those threats, some of which are necessarily quite hard to spot and some of which are hard to stop. So, both our protective security work and investigative security work is constantly moving forward for those new threats. But you can't turn your back on the way people have carried out attacks in the past.

Host - Oliver Hair

Absolutely, and thank you for providing such a great explanation there of the transition in the intent, capability and type of actors that we see within the UK terrorism threat landscape. A reoccurring theme that has come up in all of your answers so far has been the role of the internet. I’d like to move on to exploring that in a bit more depth now if we can, but also to get a better understanding of the types of people that are becoming caught up in CTP’s casework.

In December of last year, the Five Eyes Community released a report calling for immediate action to fight the growing threat to children posed by online extremism. I wanted to get your view if we can on the threat posed to under 18-year-olds by online extremism and malicious actors online, but also the threat posed by those individuals who are increasingly becoming involved in extremism and terrorism related activity here in the UK.

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

The publication of that report was unprecedented. So, we come together as leads in counterterrorism from a law enforcement and intelligence community across the Five Eyes, a very strong partnership, one that has existed since the Second World War. And that partnership had never felt it needed to publish in this way until last year. It's such a globally consistent phenomenon, that young people are being both radicalised, are drawn to both violent and dehumanising material, and then are finding themselves in communities where some of their emerging dark thoughts are being validated by others. 

So, people tend to think a lot about social media and posted material, content, online, and that's definitely a risk for us. But the reality is a lot of what we see is communities coming together, sometimes very small groups. But we've seen examples of material being created in the UK which has gone on to inspire, or be a part of the radicalization of people around the world. So, content on video created in the UK which was found to have been part of the story of the Buffalo shooter…the individual who carried out a shooting in Buffalo, if you remember it, in the US. 

So, what we see is a connectivity which comes through those internet connections which is attractive to young people. We've seen the imagery of video games used. So, if you remember the terrible attacks in Christchurch, the mosque attacks in Christchurch, they were live streamed by the perpetrator. It had that, kind of, first person video-feel, and although many, many platforms have worked hard to remove that particular content, it still finds its way onto the internet. It can still be seen in some of our casework, and so we know there's quite a deliberate shaping of some of what we see. Some roots in through gaming directly as well and some increasing blurring of the lines between what we would traditionally have called terrorism, and what is otherwise online-enabled or -motivated violence. 

So, to give you some sense of scale, we now see in our casework around one in five of those who are arrested is under-18, is a child. We see referrals into the counter-radicalisation programme, PREVENT, for children who are under 10. And a very large proportion of those who are referred are in the under-25 group overall. So, we know that there are emerging concerns around, not just those who have fixed on ideologies or drawn to that, but around the overlap with groups that are fixated on violence in its own right. 

We've spoken publicly again in a reasonably unprecedented way in the last few weeks, alongside the National Crime Agency (NCA) about comm networks. Those networks are forums online where we're seeing the sharing of terrorist material, beheadings, battlefield gore, violent crimes, murders, violent misogynistic material which is present very commonly. The encouragement of suicide, animal cruelty, the abuse of siblings, all of that. And so, whereas in the past we would have seen more boundaried investigations, where the work that the NCA and local police forces do in relation to online harms would have a particular character and counterterrorism work would be different in character…particularly around the experience of young people, those are coming closer and closer together. 

So our partnership with government is critical. Our partnership with industry is critical. And of course you know we've got an incredibly important role to play alongside educators, teachers, parents, family, in relation to supporting young people. Because in those online spaces, as well as potentially presenting a threat to others, what we do see is the exploitation of vulnerable young people and we see vulnerable young people being exploited, often by peers, who are encouraging acts like self-harm. From a counterterrorism perspective, you know, we have to recognise that we've seen some very well developed plans and plots by individuals who are still teenagers. So, we have to be both focused on safeguarding the individual, but also recognise that there are threats to the public here as well.

Host - Oliver Hair

Absolutely. You mentioned there briefly the kind of gamification of terrorism or at least extreme violence being attractive, I guess to these younger individuals. Is there any other explanation perhaps as to why initially these younger people are being drawn to this kind of material?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

We've seen some features which are probably accelerated by isolation during the pandemic. So, there are extremes of content which would have been, in the past, quite difficult to find, but those hours online and development of some of those communities have projected them. We definitely see instances where there are complex needs, complex issues for the young people involved. Issues around mental health. We see the presence of neurodiversity in some of our casework, but I think it's really important to say we don't see that as causal. We don't really yet understand why it would be that we detect that in our casework in the way we do, but it's clearly something we want to make sure we're protecting young people from those risks, if they have got other complex needs.

There's something about the pace and nature of communication online, which sort of ratchets up the content in particular forums. So, people might post something provocative. There's a sort of challenge out on others to go one step further, and I think we see that, don't we, in all sorts of neutral, or benign, or positive online behaviours. You know, there's a kind of one-upping that takes place in the social media space and within messaging groups. So, we shouldn't be surprised that we also see that in some of these, you know, really, really difficult and challenging groups. So I think part of it is the validation and connection with others who reinforce and, you know, tell people they're on the right track basically. And, you know, their ideas are not exclusively theirs. 

I think we've always seen people who are struggling to find their direction and place in the world seek it out, and if you don't have good insulating factors around, then sometimes people find that in these online forums and even despite sometimes some of those insulating factors. So, we often find when we're doing PREVENT work that, actually, parents…families are incredibly supportive of the action we're taking with young people because they are concerned and genuinely concerned that it is difficult to understand the online life of your teenage kids.

Host - Oliver Hair

In terms of, you've just mentioned there people struggling perhaps to find direction, purpose, motivation outside of kind of internet spaces and then finding a community of perhaps support or belonging on those. Increasingly, we at Pool Re are noticing individuals, including both those younger individuals, but others as well, who conduct terrorism related activity or activity that traditionally looks like terrorism and they're conducting that for a variety of kind of mixed, confused, and at times conflicting even reasons. And you've mentioned sort of the full range of the types of malicious content that people are accessing online. Could you give your view on the diversification of perhaps motivation or inspiration that you see in CTP's caseload, and perhaps how that's impacted the work that your teams do on a on a day-to-day basis?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

One of the features in that is the growth of that less clear, unstable, ideological base. Some of that is…people on occasions, grazing across different content, different ideologies. So, we'll literally see in our casework individuals who flick between Islamic State (IS) content, Daesh content and then to Extreme Right-Wing material which starts to suggest it's the extreme nature, and the violence, and the rhetoric which appeals…rather than a very strong affiliation. 

We see some of the ideologies overlapping. So they are unclear. They are fluid. But they have got some central features. So, we see sadly an enduring presence of antisemitism in a huge amount of both Extreme Right-Wing casework and Islamist terrorist casework. We see a great deal of violent misogyny. It's very common to see threats of sexual violence or reference to sexual violence repeated through extremist forums. We, of course, see a whole host of other motivations or ideologies prayed and aid. 

Sometimes, we have seen in our casework, and I don't want to overstate the numbers now, but they are growing and we need to be alive to the growth of numbers of those who are fixated on mass casualty attacks in their own right. So, the obvious examples of those are the US school shootings. So, we've seen something approaching a couple of 100 people in the last set of PREVENT figures referred into that scheme because of their specific interest in mass casualty attacks and school shootings. And there have been cases we've prosecuted as well where individuals have become fixated on, have started to glorify, some of those involved in the shootings like Columbine and others. 

So, it's a combination both of, what we might have seen in the past, which is individuals who are drawn to an ideology, but also those who are not so much starting at a perspective of ideology, but starting with the violence and the dehumanised content and then finding around that some motivation through these ideologies. And that's why, although there is still a distinct counterterrorism role for us to play…where we get into those spaces, we've got to recognise the margins are more blurred and that work we're doing now, whether it's with a wider set of government departments, locally or nationally, and definitely with the National Crime Agency and regional organised crime units, that focus on reducing the risks of online-enabled, or online-motivated violence, is incredibly important.

Host - Oliver Hair

And is that a trend that you see continuing into the future? A rise in those offenders looking for kind of perhaps fame or notoriety and perhaps less focus, or at least a decline, in individuals adhering to solely a kind of purist ideology like we saw in previous decades?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

I think this is where we get to a tough reality that this is an “and problem”, not an “or problem”. That, you know, we still face sophisticated, determined, radicalised individuals. You know, we've had convictions in the last couple of weeks. You know, a woman who would have taken her children, taken her family potentially, overseas to be involved with a terrorist organisation. We've seen an individual convicted just in the last week or so…given a life sentence, for attack planning. So, we see very clear indications that we've got an enduring threat and sadly, rather than, or, or in substitute for, we now in substitution for, we've now got this reality of young people drawn to these risks. Is it inevitable? And is it growing? 

I think we're at a pretty decisive moment. We have, obviously, been working very closely with government since the terrible events in Southport last year to ensure that the PREVENT system continues to evolve to deal with these shifting challenges, but also that wider systems that are there, or need to be there, to support those at risk of turning to violence are as strong as they need to be. So, there’s a response in that space. There is a question, and of course an enduring question, about online spaces and how we can make those safer for communities and for individuals. I think when we look back, we've seen our ability to disrupt an impact on terrorist risk and risks of violence before. So, we shouldn't be resigned. But, I do think we are at a point which…I've used the parallel before of how smoking was known to cause cancer. You know, you get to about 1950 and it's clear smoking is contributing to cancer. But it took decades for governments to take truly effective regulatory action against that, and I think, we are in the foothills of our lives in that online space. 

And so, there are decisions to make internationally about how to reduce some of those risks, particularly to children and young people. And so, you know, I sit here and hope that it's not inevitable, but I sit here also knowing the reality is we have to respond both to that threat, but also, not take our eye off the continued enduring risk from more organised, more what you might say, traditional terrorist threats.

Host - Oliver Hair

Sure. like to turn now, if we can, and perhaps bring in another potential set of threat actors by looking a bit more closely at state threat and the use of third party proxies by hostile foreign states. 

Perhaps again not traditionally included in terrorism or traditional CTP caseload, but increasingly it seems, state threat is forming part of your workload. In October of last year, the DG of MI5 Sir Ken McCallum came out and revealed that in the last 12 months the numbers of investigations into state threat had risen by approximately 48. 

Have you seen a similar impact on the work carried out by Counter Terrorism Policing? And if so, could we perhaps explore again how that kind of diversification of threat first manifests itself, and then how that has impacted the work that your teams carry out?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

So, it's been an incredible step change really. If you look back over five years, so, probably, you know, you take the Salisbury poisonings, the pandemic as a sort of two benchmarks. You would see a four or five fold increase in the amount of work we're doing in countering state threats. In practise, that means working with MI5 on investigations into espionage, assassination plotting, into sabotage. And in the decade before, you would have seen in any given year, low, single figures of arrests made for – under old legislation, the Official Secrets Act – for espionage and related offences. 

And in the last year, you know, we have seen an enormous amount activity under new legislation and the National Security Act, which gives us new powers. So, both using that act and other offences, we get to the point where we've made over 20 arrests, a good number of charges arising from those already. And these are individuals who are often in the UK already, working on behalf of foreign states, or part of foreign state apparatus, who don't necessarily have links to those states otherwise. So, criminal proxies, individuals who are for hire. And we've seen the convictions, I mean, we're now at a point where we're not speculating about these risks, but we've seen, you know, real evidence, convictions in relation to an arson at a warehouse in East London which is linked to Russia…the plot was linked to hostile intent from Russia. We've seen enormous amount of plots that we've had to get ahead of in relation to those who are opposition voices linked to Iran. So, you've heard the Director General of MI5 talk about those, but a significant number of instances where we have had to move at pace to protect the lives of individuals in the UK to disrupt and to try to make progress in the investigation of those kind of risks against dissident voices. 

And that is an unprecedented tempo of work for us, makes up about 20% of our current caseload in counterterrorism policing, and it's reflective of an increasingly connected world, but also a world which is…it's going through a period of great instability. So, the two conflicts, you know, raging particularly in the Middle East and in Ukraine obviously have been a source of escalated risk in the UK as a result. But there is a long tail to this, and there are other nations who see their dissidents wherever they are in the world, as potential targets for their aggression. And, you know, our very clear message is, you know, that there is no safe haven in the UK for that kind of activity. There is no tolerance for that kind of activity in the UK. And we have seen some instances where, and I've talked about one arson, and there have been other similar events where actually the wider public safety is at risk through some of these plots and intentions. 

So, it's a growing area of our work. I remain confident in our ability to bear down on it, even despite all the challenges it presents, because we build on that fantastic partnership we've had with MI5 over many years. But not just with MI5 actually, I mean, there are examples of hostile reconnaissance against one of the media organisations giving voice to opposition to Iran at points. We've convicted an individual in that case where it was members of the public who were the first individuals who detected that because they had worked with us, because they were sensitised, and vigilant to those risks. 

So we have got to think about the different approaches we need to these state threats, but also we should draw on that incredible history we've got…the very sad history in the UK of having to become capable in the space of counter terrorism as well.

Host - Oliver Hair

Absolutely. That's again fascinating. And I think we've covered an awful lot there all the way from 2001 to the current day, online spaces, young offenders, and now state threats. Matt, I always ask our guests our recurring question at the end of these podcast episodes, and we've touched on it throughout, so forgive me if you've if you've not got much more to add. But I was just wondering if you could kind of pick one statement or view…how do you see the terrorism threat evolving in the next, let's say 5 to 10 years?

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

I think the inevitable driver of new risks will be technology in the way that it has been in the last decade. The pace of change that we've seen in that period, we could never have imagined. And so, in many ways, you know, forecasting is difficult because we've yet to really understand what the technologies are in 10 years’ time we might be facing into. What we've seen is opportunity and risk from new technologies, so it's easy to pathologize AI and say it's going to be the, you know, the end of days. The reality is we're starting to use AI, machine learning, robotics, really effectively to plough through this enormous casework. I mean, everything I've described is currently captured in 800 live investigation and, at the moment, you know, when we go and search people's homes, recover their digital footprint. We're talking about, you know, tens and tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, of messages and files in many instances. So, technology is a challenge, but it's also got enormous potential to be an enabler for us, and we need to make sure we can continue to invest in keeping pace with that.

And without getting into too much sort of speculation about the future, I do think we have to know there are risks in AI as well. So, we've seen more generative AI content used in mis- and disinformation, and in radicalising content. We had the very unusual case of Jaswant Chail, who was arrested outside Windsor Castle, if you remember that, in 2021. He had engaged, and I think he built in part, but he certainly engaged, a chatbot. Certainly in his account, there was some evidence of interaction there. Probably not the major feature in his radicalisation, or his journey to that act, but you know, definitely something which we know in the past the radicalising voice would have been human. But it seems, you know, very likely that just as there are almost indistinguishable, you know, generative AI created voices, now we'll see more of that in the in the space of radicalization. So, I think that the risks flow from technology as well as some opportunities. 

The biggest opportunity of all is in our continued relationship with the public. So if I, you know, so get towards conclusions, then it's really to acknowledge that last year through our online reporting and the anti-terrorist hotline, we had 22,000 contacts from the public. And, you know, you would think maybe there was a lot of, I don't know, “curtain twitching” going on in all of that, or there was a lot of misplaced suspicion, and a lot of, you know, well-intended concern. I think the lesson for us is the public, whether they're online or on their streets, are very good at spotting what doesn't look right. And so, of those 22,000 contacts, about one in five goes on to be investigated by officers and staff in CT policing. So that's a pretty high hit rate. If I could harvest intelligence and know that one in five items in that intelligence was going to, you know, prove to be of some use for an onward investigation, then that's a pretty good hit rate against the scale of the challenge we're facing. 

So yeah, the outlook I think is built around two realities. The one is the world is changing fast and feels at this point in time, you know, to be in a really quite challenged condition. But at home here, in a fantastic partnership with MI5 and this enduring, brilliant partnership with the public, there's every reason to believe we can continue to evolve to, to meet those threats.

Host - Oliver Hair

That's fantastic and really nice to end on, on a positive, when we've been talking about some really, really challenging issues and yeah, great to hear about some of the successes that that you achieve here at CTP. That's all that I had in terms of questions, but all that's left is to say Matt Jukes, thank you so much for taking time out of your day to appear on the podcast. I think that is going to be a fan favourite hopefully.

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

Well, thank you very much. Can I just can I just offer one cross-podcast trailer of my own if I may?

Host - Oliver Hair

Of course.

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

It would be great if people obviously drew into the catalogue from this Pool Re podcast, but we have, to coincide with International Women's Day launched, Inside Counter Terrorism Policing in the last year. We've managed to bring forward the voice of brilliant women, in this case, who are part of all that I've just described. And we're hoping for a second season. We're going to bring forward other voices during that time. But I welcome the chance to talk about my work in this way, but really most of the time I'm talking about their work. I'm talking about the brilliantly talented, determined, courageous women and men who are doing this work as we're sat here now, who’ll be doing this work, you know, through the night tonight. So if you've, it's a sort of, if you've enjoyed this one, then please go and find wherever you get your podcasts Inside Counter Terrorism Policing.

Host - Oliver Hair

100%. We at Pool Re have listened and it is fantastic. So yeah, I reiterate the point, please go and do listen to that. But Matt, thanks very much for your time today.

Guest Expert - Matt Jukes

Thank you so much for the opportunity.

Host - Oliver Hair

Thanks.