TOTALLY Terrorism Episode 12:
Andrew Donaldson - The Shard and mitigating terrorism threat in the UK
Episode #012 – Andrew Donaldson - The Shard and mitigating terrorism threat in the UK
Andrew Donaldson is Head of Security for Real Estate Management (UK) Ltd, responsible for security policy, strategy, and crisis management at some of London’s most iconic buildings, including The Shard. Andrew is a Chartered Security Professional, Fellow of the Security Institute, and Co-Chair of their Counter Terrorism and Insider Risk Special Interest Groups. He holds a Master’s degree in International Security and Risk Management, having completed his dissertation concerning the emergence and evolution of al Qa’ida and its impact on protective security. Andrew sits on several project boards and working groups advising on, and supporting, government security matters.
In this episode, we’ll explore Andy’s distinguished career in international counter terrorism with Counter Terrorism Policing and the Ministry of Defence, his top tips for mitigating terrorism threat, as well as his role within the Security Institute as a Chartered Security Professional.
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Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Hello and welcome to Totally Terrorism, a Pool Re podcast. My name is Oliver Hair, a Threat Analyst at Pool Re. In this episode, we're joined by Andy Donaldson, the Head of Security for Real Estate Management UK Ltd., responsible for security policy, strategy, and crisis management at some of London’s most iconic buildings, including The Shard. Today, we’ll explore Andy’s distinguished career in international counter terrorism with Counter Terrorism Policing and the Ministry of Defence, his top tips for mitigating terrorism threat, as well as his role within the Security Institute as a Chartered Security Professional.
We hope you enjoy this episode of Totally Terrorism, and if you would like to hear future episodes, please subscribe through your streaming app of choice or sign up for regular updates through poolre.co.uk/signup.
Andy Donaldson, welcome to Totally Terrorism.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Thanks, Ollie.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Thanks very much for coming on today. I just thought for our audiences sake, it would be great if you could just first give an introduction to who you are and why you're here speaking with me today.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, of course. I am the Head of Security for a company called Real Estate Management UK Limited. We are appointed to look after a number of quite significant buildings in London and the one that most people relate to is just over the river, The Shard, and that's where the office is based out of too.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure. And could you give us a brief summary of your career so far, the experiences perhaps that have got you into your current role, but also how you got into CT in the first place?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, of course. I didn't start off intending to have a career in security because, I kind of think about the position that I'm in now and we'll talk more about the Register of Chartered Security Professionals and the Security Institute and all that sort of stuff later. But yeah, I didn't plan on it for sort of back in the day it all started in a zoo. I was, yeah, working there part time as I was getting through my GCSE's, my A levels, and that's where I thought my kind of career was going. I've always had a thing about conservation and animals and wildlife and stuff like that, and yeah, I look back and it's easy to say now, like, “oh my god, that's when the whole risk thing started”, because I'd, you know, be jumping in the kind of pool of Brutus and Claudia, the two eight foot Nile crocodiles that we had, you know, armed with a wooden broom with one of the other guys, sort of watching on as you've sort of, you know, cleaned them out and looked after them. Looking back now, if somebody was to say, like, “Andy, by the way, we just want you to jump in a pool with two crocodiles”, I’d be like “no flipping way”. You know, it's not happening. But it was risky. That's where it all started. And it was, it was great, it was really, really cool.
I then went off to university, I studied a bachelor's degree in behavioural sciences and the second year of that, I had to do a research placement. And a very long story-short is, I landed a two week research placement with West Midlands Police and their Force Intelligence Bureau. The lady who was in charge of the intelligence department at the time went on to be one of the deputy directors at the National Crime Agency and it just so happened what I was interested in is what she had just done her master's degree in. And there was a serial rape case that was live at the time that I became involved in the research of understanding what was going on and why, and that two week placement turned into a five week placement turned into a 10 week placement and at the end of that they said “look, would you like a job?”. I had Wednesdays sort of free from studies so I started working for the police and that really sort of led into the CT world.
Now, a bit of paper landed on my desk and it was marked not for Force Intelligence intelligence, but for Special Branch. And I said to like one of the guys in the office, “what's this Special Branch thing” and like, “I'll just take it down to, you know, the floor that they're on and hand it over”. So I went down the sort of, you know, floors in headquarters, knocked on the door, and this whole floor of headquarters just had one door. It was like, you know, quite weird. The door opened with the grumpiest looking detective I still have ever seen and I could just make out a portrait of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II in the background. And he was like, “what do you want?”. “This is landed on my desk”. “Have you read it?”. “No”. And like, handed it over in the door.
And as I found out more about the world of Special Branch and counterterrorism and working with the government, that's where I was bitten, bitten by the book. I joined the police shortly after that and was very quickly, got promoted too quickly some people may say. Very quickly specialised into counterterrorism and then disappeared into international counterterrorism for a number of years.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
So you, you clearly then have an extensive range of experiences and great understanding of the CT space, both from your time in the public and private sector. I think it's really interesting that you started out in the police having come from a behavioural science background, so looking at the human aspect perhaps more so perhaps than the property aspect which we’ll come on to speak about in a few moments.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, I think a key thing is about understanding the way different people think differently and, from a security point of view, from a terrorism point of view, you know, one of the big vulnerabilities is a security professional looking at things like a security professional and trying, instead of trying to sort of view the situation, be it the building or the event, through the eyes of a bad person and start to understand how differently they would take various risks or what they would find impactive and not just looking at like a kind of, you know, pale male, stale security professional. OK, yeah. This is what it's all about.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Absolutely. That's super, super interesting. And I think quite a unique perspective probably at that time and gives you even greater experience across the board. You have mentioned your time in CT and then you must have eventually popped out the other end. So could you tell us a bit more about kind of your more recent experiences and your career more recently?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, we're gonna do well to get through this without, like the pair of us breaking down in giggles at one point because it, you know, we’re sat here in the boardroom at Pool Re and Pool Re was my first venture into the private sector. And it was a great privilege to be part of Pool Re during those years to learn the lessons that I did, to work with the people that I did, to achieve what we did, and even now when I hear people say, “hey, have you read Pool Re’s latest monthly report?”, I can't help but feel a little bit smug going, “Yeah, I know about those”.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Yeah, absolutely, and could you tell us a bit more about what your role at Pool Re was and what you were doing here?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, I started off as the Deputy-Head of Risk Analysis working with Ed Butler, who's an absolute legend. And I learned so much from Ed and his experiences as a, simply a war hero, and together with the team, we created the sort of initial framework for Pool Re looking at understanding terrorism as a peril, the intelligence that is required for security related decision making to reduce the likelihood of businesses being caught up in attacks or to reduce the severity of them should they have occurred. So the terrorism reports that came out on a monthly basis and the six monthly reports and then the annual reports all that sort of stuff came from the initial work that yeah we undertook here at Pool Re.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure, absolutely, and you mentioned there your experience in kind of security related decision making and that then must have played a huge role in your decision to then move to the Shard which you've mentioned at the start.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, and again, that came as a real nice surprise. The phone went when I was, I believe over working with my CT wingman Steve McGrath who was in NATCSO at the time. Yeah, we were working on one particular piece of work and the phone went and the job was highlighted to me and yeah, the rest is history.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure so I'd like to get on to that recent history a bit more now, if we can. So we've spoken a lot about your time within the CT world, and more recently your experiences in the private sector where youre making those security related decisions and mitigating threats from, I think its fair to say, a more strategic point of view, rather than actively working to counter them in an operational type of role. You’re now working at the tallest building in Western Europe, arguably the most recognisable building in the UK, but certainly within the City of London. Could you just give us if possible, a summary of what it is like mitigating terrorism threat for a building as expansive, as big, and as recognisable as The Shard.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, it is a unique responsibility and it's a real privilege to have in the first instance because when people talk about The Shard, and it seems to be everywhere at the moment, you know, it doesn't matter what the TV show is in London or some of the big Hollywood Movies. Now, The Shard, London, you know whether or not the buildings anything to do with what's on, you see The Shard it is, it is part of the London skyline. It is part of the Critical National Infrastructure. It represents so much and we want it to be a beacon for modern London, which is why our marketing team and the team are so great at what they do and the Christmas lights and all the other stuff that happens there is a is a good indication. So when it means so much to so many people, I describe it as almost like praying to a deity on a daily basis. You know, my commute in when I first see the building for the first time every day, it's just, “ok, here we go”. As a rule of thumb, you know, we get round about 9000 people on site on a day-to-day basis. We have all the major components of a city, but instead of being spread out on the ground, you know we reach up to the clouds. We have the viewing platform, we have the residencies, we have the infinity pool on with Shangri-La, you know, the highest swimming pool in the country, in addition to Shangri-La 5 Star Hotel and a couple of hundred of their hotel rooms in addition to 32 businesses and number of bars and restaurants. As well as hospital. So all of that within the one building makes for a complex security environment to make sure, yeah, people can work, visit and live there safely.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
I'm sure and you've mentioned there a hugely diverse portfolio and I think you've termed the Shard a “city on stilts” before and I want to come on to that a bit later if we can. But from a CT and terrorism point of view, and as you've said, it's part of the London landscape, you can't escape The Shard in kind of day-to-day marketing and media. It's therefore, and I don't think any surprise that it would be a very attractive target to terrorist actors here in the UK. As Head of Security, and this can be from a CT or non-CT point of view, or perhaps you could give us both points of view; what do you consider your biggest threat as Head of Security at the Shard to your organisation? And perhaps we could sum it up in the more cliched security question of “what keeps you up at night”, basically.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, Ollie, those are great questions and I'm probably going to dodge them as I talk through everything now. Terrorism is just one of many security issues that we face and people use the term “threat” and sometimes it's easy for people not to, kind of, get that that is the fusion of somebody's intent and their capability to do something. And what we're left with is how vulnerable we are to that “something”. And that's the risk that that we have to manage and terrorism is one of those risks.
Within terrorism specifically, I think it's really important to grasp the significance of relationships because you can't be making friends for the first time when something's gone wrong. So when you look at the stakeholders involved in effective counterterrorism, be that policing, or the government, or allied governments. To have a good working relationship with them so that the trust and confidence is there by default when you have that event or you have that visit or you have that incident occur that has the potential to impact upon your terrorism assessments. If you've, if you already know the people that you're dealing with, it just makes it a whole lot easier. It really, really does. We participate in the relationship with the counterterrorism security advisers of the Metropolitan Police. We participate in their assessment of the building and for the other assets we also complete the Pool Re vulnerability self-assessments, also, we do the VSAT because all of that contributes to my intelligence-led approach of dealing with the security risks, particularly terrorism.
When you look at the definition of security, sort of, pushed by the Register of Chartered Security Professionals, I think it's something that I kind of warmed to because it draws out the fact that security should not be viewed just as an end. It can't be viewed of, “it's ok, we've got security because we've got those guards, we've got that CCTV, we've got this lock and an access control things”. Because security is about identifying those risks and assessing them to make sure that your mitigations are proportionately in place because security is a standoff with somebody’s right to life, their freedom of movements, and it's really, really important that people can go about their lives freely with confidence and if that's visiting or working at The Shard, then that's what people need to understand when they see the security presence there. It hasn't happened by accident. It is part of an assessment process where we've recognised what we need to have in place.
And when it comes to what keeps Andy awake at night, I can't hang my hat on one particular sort of nightmare scenario because whilst The Shard is a city on stilts, whilst we do have thousands of people in there, it's a building and, you know, I'm also responsible for incident management across the portfolio and when incidents happen they are rarely purely conventional security issues. The way that our command team goes about thinking about resolving whatever the incident is does have some sort of throwback to the security world with the decision making model, understanding what intelligence we are acting upon, the strengths, the weaknesses, how much confidence we can place the difference between what we know, what we think, what we don't know, before going into sort of a risk assessment process around, you know what are actually the vulnerabilities, the strengths and the weaknesses of our options, the legal framework, or the procedures that we operate in, before coming through to what actually could be some options.
You know that your security decision making, kind of, model and we apply that to the non-security events when they occur. So there's no one thing that keeps Andy awake security-wise when incidents happen we do apply sort of security decision making methodology to sort them out.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Absolutely, Yeah. I'd be shocked if there was one thing that you could you could pinpoint there. And we have mentioned already that diversity of portfolio, how floor upon floor upon floor, there are people doing entirely different things for entirely different reasons. How does that diversity impact the diversity of perhaps threats you face, but also how do you then go about coordinating as a huge, huge business, all of those different stakeholders, while also bearing in mind the threats that they might face?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
This comes back to the issue around kind of thinking like the bad guy or the bad girl and I and I'm stealing a kind of, you know, all from Paul Martin and if any nobody's read “The Rules of Security” by Paul Martin, then it’s a book that I recommend. It's very, very good and Paul sort of, you know, outlines the importance of thinking like, you know, the bad person because when it comes to understanding the portfolio, and the tenants within it, it's trying to grasp why they could be viewed as a legitimate target by somebody else and to understand either the ideological or political drivers behind that terrorist group, that protest group, that criminal, that hostile foreign intelligence service. As soon as you can, sort of, start to unpick a potential motive, then you can look at the intent or the capability of them and start putting in mitigations with the tenant where we have, you know, occupants of our portfolio that run their own businesses, we as professional landlords will work with them to make sure that their businesses and the people within their businesses are as safe as they can be.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure, I really like the point there where you kind of have to step into the shoe of your enemy, let's say.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yes.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
I think, as we've already made clear already, you can probably imagine the sorts of groups or types of people who may want to cause you harm at The Shard or at least cause your organisation harm. As you do though look after such an immense and complicated organisation, I also thought it would be great today for our audience to understand what your advice or maybe lets even say your top 2 tips would be for a smaller business who perhaps doesn't think terrorism involves them or even that they just might never be involved in it. Our audience are likely aware of Martyn’s Law, a proposed piece of legislation currently being lobbied for by the incredible Fiegen Murray which, if passed, would require businesses of certain sizes to better understand the threats they could face from terrorism. For those smaller businesses, if and when lets say they do have to come to think about terrorism a bit more, what would be your advice for; firstly, gaining an understanding of what terrorism is in the UK, but also then putting the steps in place to mitigate it, from the perspective of someone who has to do that for the biggest building in Western Europe ?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Ollie again, great questions, but I can't guarantee my answer is going to actually deal with them! When it comes to businesses, regardless of the size of the business, it's really important to understand what you're legally required to do because you can get into the, “I'm not legally required to cooperate with the counterterrorism security advisors”, for example. But I do. And the reason I do is because it's the right thing to do. I can put trust and confidence in counterterrorism policing and the model that MPs work with, but also what I do have is a legal obligation now to anybody who was within that building, to keep them safe from foreseeable risks.
Where we have the UK Government articulate the probability of a terrorist attack on a daily basis in the form of the national threat level via JTAC, it's fair to say that terrorism could be viewed as a foreseeable risk. So therefore, I've got to take reasonably practicable measures to keep those people safe from that risk. And this is where I think one particular benefit of Martyn’s Law, should the legislation come into effect, and, you know, we can't talk about Martyn’s Law without a hearts and minds moment with Feigen Murray because I think of her as a very dear friend and the work that she continues to do is all-inspiring and admirable.
And one particular benefit I think would be clearing up the ambiguity of what is reasonably practicable because the legislation has the potential to say, you know what, for you as a business, this is what we expect you to do with your assessment, or your plan, or the training. And it's really important there to distinguish between what could be a tripwire over occupancy versus the size of a business and what is a foreseeable risk. Because, regardless of the occupancy of their business, if they're undertaking the schedule one or qualifying activities, they're still going to have that legal point under the Health and Safety Work Act to do what is necessary to keep people safe from terrorism. There's a lot of information out there now and a lot of guidance that is being provided by the Home Office as well to help businesses on their journey for Martyn’s Law. So if the legislation does come in, what I'm seeing from the government, and it is admirable, a lot of, here's the guidance notes, here's the sources of information that you can draw from. And I know that the police are putting, you know, information out there through one medium and the website of the National Protective Security Authority, (NPSA), is exceptional for this at the moment. The standard of the products that are coming out of NPSA are first class and again businesses, regardless of the size, can for free visit those websites, have that information provided to them, in order for them to start making their security-related decisions.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure, so it seems like kind of your message there is almost don't panic. You're likely doing a lot of what you'll be asked to do already, but also there is help and guidance out there already and should the legislation pass, there's likely to be far more out there and support for any business anyway.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, absolutely, don't panic. And also, don't think that if you have a capacity that is under the current proposal of 100 or 799, whatever they get set as the tripwire, don't just think that you don't have a legal obligation to keep people safe, because you will still have that obligation and it's just about going about it in the right way with the information that's provided all through the competent person scheme that hopefully we’ll also see introduced in place with the legislation.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Sure, absolutely. That's really, really helpful. We touched on there, guidance and advice that's already available and material that's available, and I'd like to come on to one of your other roles away from The Shard if we can and it's an organisation or a community that offer that sort of guidance and material to those wanting to learn more about CT or those seeking to mitigate any threat to their business and that's the Security Institute of which you're a Co-chair of the Counterterrorism Special Interest group. I was wondering for those who may not be aware, could you just give kind of a cover-all of what the Security Institute is and then perhaps maybe what your role specifically within it is?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Absolutely. And before that, this is either going to be test of your editing skills or I vote we leave it in as it is, because, coming back to your earlier question and proof that I do listen to you buddy…two tips. I think having had a couple of moments to, sort of, think and ponder on the two tips, number one I think is: know who the security professional is in your company and listen to them. Or if you're in the position of needing security advice then make sure you go to the right professional in order to get it, and again, depending what happens with a competent person scheme that's potentially one or professional membership is another one, and this is where we can talk more about the Security Institute and the Chartered Security Professionals. And I think the second tip is if you are that security professional, hold your own. So, have the confidence to form your opinion and stick to it because security is one of those things where everyone's got a flipping opinion, on it. And I see this a lot throughout the sector of you, you know, “oh yeah, well so and so who also does the lifts and the air conditioning, they say that, you know, you need this camera here” and it's like…there's a reason why the guys and girls at The Shard don't let me near the controls for the lifts and the air conditioning and all that sort of stuff because I don't know anything about it. I'm not suitably trained and qualified to talk about, you know, that sort of stuff. But when it comes to security, there's still a bit of a vibe out there that because everyone's got an opinion, everyone suddenly is a security expert and therefore what they say should be listened to.
So the top tips for me is, if you are within a company, know who your security professional is and listen to them. Or if you're in a company that hasn't got a security professional, you need to find one. Know what good looks like, and if you are the security professional, out there don't be swayed. Hold your own.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Absolutely, and thank you for pulling me back on that as well because yeah, we've spoken about a lot today and it's easy to kind of get lost in these long winded questions as it is. So, perhaps if we come back to the Security Institute now, which formed part of that answer there, in terms of knowing your stuff, but also knowing who's in charge of what, and backing yourself if you are that person. The Security Institute can definitely help with all of that, so, if you could give a kind of summary of the Institute and then also perhaps your role within it.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yes, the Security Institute is within the UK, the largest professional body for security professionals, although it has an international reach. Within the UK, membership is circa 5000, I think at the moment. This is where Security Institute HQ are going to be shouting at me for not paying more attention to the annual report that came out two weeks ago, where they've got the exact numbers of the membership. So yeah, we exist at various membership levels from students, associate, member, fellow, and yeah, it's my great privilege to be a fellow of the Security Institute, and I also co-chair, the Counterterrorism Special Interest Group with my CT wingman, Steve McGrath, who is now Head of Security over at Wembley as well. So, you've attended some of the webinars and see the stuff that.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
I am, yeah. an associate.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
And it's a big thing for Steve and I. And I'm going to speak on his behalf, but he'll probably rip me for it afterwards, now. To demystify the CT world a little bit because, you know, from our backgrounds,, you know, CT cops, spooks, don't get born and made in test tubes. You know, they're normal guys and girls that go about their lives, their work, like anybody else. And yes, absolutely, part of that national security work needs to be kept secret. However, in order to enable the next generation of security professionals entering counterterrorism and national security, I think it's really, really important to be as inclusive and as engaging as possible. And you know, you just take a look at MI5 now, you know, they've got the Instagram account, their various departments are active on LinkedIn. So, Steve and I sort of take our responsibilities really seriously. And this is why we have the programme that we do, of the webinars, and the briefs, and bringing in the guest speakers to both help the next generation get on, but also to share that professional knowledge that the best that we can.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
No, it's fantastic. And I, yeah, I've been to a fair few events and they do, I think do a great job of, as you say, demystifying CT. I know coming into this role that I'm currently in straight out of university, the CT world was kind of what I saw on TV and the work of places like the Security Institute actually show you that it's a lot less, kind of, mystical and that there are a community out there looking to kind of benefit each other.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
This is where, though again, either your editing skills are going to be put to the test, or we're just going to let this roll, because we can't let this slide where you talk about your university stuff, and the conversations that we had when I wrote my dissertation, because I was gutted that your paper did not come out just a few weeks early, so why don't you just talk for a moment about the piece you recently did on AQ?
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Yeah, absolutely. So, last year I wrote a paper at Pool Re on the future of Al Qa’ida and the threat they pose to the UK, but specifically as a result of new intelligence that had come out from the UN citing Saif al Adel, an individual thought to be based in Iran at the moment, as their sort of de facto leader. We haven't heard much from AQ in recent years, they haven't announced a new leader since the death of Zawahiri, so I was tasked by Pool Re to kind of look into that. Took me a long time, eventually published it, but really enjoyed kind of the process and learnt a lot more. And funnily enough, Andy, our guest today reached out to my team once it had been published with some very kind words about the paper itself.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Exceptional paper, and again, for the context, that paper was released I think two, three weeks after I'd submitted my Masters dissertation that looked at the emergence and evolution of Al Qa’ida from 1979 to 2022. So it was an exceptional piece of work. I just only wish you'd released it about 3 week before you did buddy.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
That’s very, very kind, and yeah, not the quickest writer so apologies for not getting that out earlier. Before we spoke about that though, we were talking about the demystification of terrorism and security, and I guess part of the Security Institute's key role is teaching individuals like me, early out of uni, largely academic background, the kind of real world implications of those research projects that you and I have since carried out. Understanding what you read online and in journals through a real world lens and through the workings of an organisation, or a government department, or major site is really, really important. And I think part of that education and professional development piece, and something you’re also I’m sure quite proud, is the Register of Chartered Security Professionals. So I was wondering if you could speak a bit more on that.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Yeah, so, the Security Institute deals with the administration for the Register of Chartered Security Professionals, which is seen internationally as the gold standard in security management. There's, I believe, 277 at the last count, that's the bit of this Security Institute's annual report I did remember! So, there's 277 of us internationally, and the register has been set up for, it's either 11 or 12 years now. So the process is very fair, very transparent, very challenging, and very rewarding for those of us that get through. I only wish that I'd kind of seized upon professional development like this earlier, both with joining the Security Institute as a member and then recognising the benefits of being a Chartered Security Professional, because I think it's easy for people to come out of a disciplined organisation and go “hey, I was once a soldier or a cop or a spook. I know what I'm doing”. But then when you hit the private sector, you realise exactly how different the world is. What you have to do to be taken seriously and to prove your credibility and your continued professional development. And that's really where I think the Register and the Security Institute come into their own. Chartered Security Professionals, there's a number of competencies that you're considered against and it is all about your ability to make strategic impact, and again, further information on that is available on the Security Institute website.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Fantastic. Thank you very much. I think we've, well, we have covered an awful lot there and I think that's a result of both your career so far, but also your understanding of CT, you’re a great guest to have on so thank you very much. One thing we do always ask our guests is their own perspective on UK terrorism threat at the moment, and that can be just as objective as you want it to be. That's not related to your current role, but it is always interesting asking someone like you with your background how you believe that UK terrorism threat has changed throughout your career. So perhaps, if we could go right back to the start and what you thought it was like then, the evolution of it, and then what you currently consider to be the biggest terrorism threat here in the UK?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Again, my answer to that is probably not going to be like on a linear line. When I talk about terrorism publicly, one of the things I like to do is to ask the audience in their minds-eye to picture a witch. And I give them a few moments to sort of, you know, ponder that, and then start picking on people to say, “hey, you, you know, what does your witch look like?”. And you get pretty much the same response of, it's a woman, she's got a green face, she's got a black pointy hat, she might have a cat, a broomstick, you name it. And I'm like, ok, cool. And then sort of probe around. “Do we have any sort of, you know, Shakespeare fans, what about the, you know, Macbeth witches. How many were blind and shed an eye and a tooth, or Greek mythology”. You know? And then sort of say, look, you know, “any Disney fans, what about The Little Mermaid you've got, Ursula who's 60% octopus?”. How many, you know, envisaged tentacles when I said to you, please picture a witch? Because everybody makes an assumption and you default to that assumption with your thinking, which isn't a bad thing, providing that you know that you're making that assumption. Because if I'd have asked that question in London in the 1980s and the 1990s, the response would probably come back with, while I don't know what the terrorists looks like, it’s probably got an Irish accent, because that was reflective of terrorism at the time. And it's really, really important to grasp that terrorism changes.
When I first joined Counterterrorism Policing, Special Branch as it was, I worked with an agent handler. He was a very seasoned detective that had made his career running agents during the Northern Ireland Related Terrorism, sort of, dominant threats. And he used to share many, many stories with me about what he had to do in order to cultivate an informant, and to get them talking, that generally involved a lot of alcohol. And when you think about dealing with that as a terrorist threat into what we then experience, primarily the other side of September the 11th, with the Islamist terrorist, right, it was very, very different. So when I joined counterterrorism, at that point, it was in the post 9/11 years where it was about predominantly Islamist terrorism and understanding that as a threat whilst they had the momentum that we experienced globally around the world.
Because now whilst we still have the remnants of that Islamist threat, we seem to be in a really weird kind of pre-war zone at the moment where we have got all sorts of states with hostile intent doing weird things. And that, for the most part, translates into violence on the street of the UK at state sponsored hands. And when we think back to the 1970s, with the Munich Olympics or the Lockerbie Bombing of the 80s, we've experienced state sponsored terrorism before and that's really, I think, the zone that we are nudging ourselves back towards now. We have numerous reports of one particular hostile state and the threat to journalists that they're posing. Anybody who is giving a narrative that is against the rhetoric coming from that particular state is an issue for us, as well as obviously the use of chemical weapons that we've experienced in this country before. All of that is violence at the hands of a state which then leads into the sort of blur that we're experiencing with policing at the moment.
A senior cop from counterterrorism gave the figure around the number of counterterrorism arrests that have taken place within a period this year, of which one was for CPI – Commission, Preparation, Instigation of Acts of Terrorism – and the majority of the rest came down to presence at protests. So, with the situation in Gaza at the moment, and Pro-Palestine, Pro-Israeli, anti-Palestine, anti-Israeli demonstrations that are taking place, and the fact that terrorism offences are manifesting from that, we've got this bit of a blur between terrorism and public disorder at the moment. There's a piece in one of the papers this morning around, you know, should we be moving to the same state of prescription with terrorist groups as we could with protest groups?
So taking all of that into account, I think what we're looking at now is a really weird stage, pre-war, where we're probably going to experience terrorism at a state sponsored level, more so than those one or two individuals who have been motivated by a rhetoric primarily from the Internet or extremist propaganda.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Absolutely, and I think that's a really interesting point and it's something we grapple with here at Pool Re from an analytical point of view, where do we draw the line between state threat, third party proxy, terrorism, extremism and, at the low end, protest and activism? From your experience within the CT world, both within government department but also in the private sector, where do you then see, what's your solution, to the blurring of that line from a policy point of view, I guess? Do we, do we split everything or do we group it all back together? What's your point of view on that?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Thanks for that Ollie, we could have left it, but you've got to come in with that. Yeah, number one, I think you've got to go by definitions and something either meets the definition of terrorism as set by TACT 2000, the Terrorism Act 2000, or it doesn't. There's no real fudging it, because that's the test that's going to come down to a legal test of, is this an act of terrorism? And if it is, then it's got to be treated as such. I know there's sometimes a standoff between our dear friends at NPSA and our dear friends in the police where, you know, the police will say, “oh, this is state sponsored terrorism”, and NPSA, or other government departments, will say, “yeah, we don't like that term. Can we call it state threats instead”, or that sort of narrative. But at the end of the day, if it meets the definition, then it's got to be treated as such, and certainly for yourselves, I think what we have to potentially prepare for is terrorism at the hands of a state, rather than that one or two, you know, inspired lone actor that was acting of their own accord because, when we come back to what do we mean by that word “threat”, the fusion of intent and capabilities, obviously states have a far vast, vaster capability than that one lone actor in East London or East Birmingham or wherever they are in the country.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Absolutely, I think that's fascinating and leads quite well onto my final question. So you've summarised your current understanding of UK threat, but where do you see it going? So, we usually ask our guests in the next, let's say 5 to 10 years, what do you think will emerge as either the primary terrorism threat, how's that landscape going to evolve in your point of view?
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Finally, a question I feel I can answer directly. I think over the next, I'll say five years, I don't see Islamist terrorism reducing as the dominant threat. When you look at some of the activities of the states with hostile intent at the moment, the narrative that is likely to come from them is of an Islamist ideology. So, the capabilities that they can bring, and this is against open source reports of already being active within London and the United Kingdom, I don't see that really changing.
What we've not really seen is an exaggeration of the threat through events like the conflict in Gaza at the moment, and there's all sorts of reasons because, well, we've had this precedent before, you know where we've had conflict in Iraq and then Afghanistan or Iraq, we've had that spike in Islamist attacks and there's all sorts of reasons and debate why we haven't experienced it this time around. Whether or not it is because of the absence of a charismatic individual or with an IT capability to give that messaging to appeal to, to people who could be aggrieved and therefore acting with violence against it. We don't know, but what we do know is that we've not really seen that in the past couple of months now. So, even with international conflicts and away at the moment, we're not really seeing that translate into an exaggeration of threat. Islamist terrorism, however, I think, is still likely to be the dominant threat for us over the next couple of years; spun into that is the capabilities that state actors are likely to bring to it.
We've got then the blur between public disorder and terrorism, and certainly from the many, many countries that now have moved back towards the nationalist agenda, rather than the global perspective that they traditionally had. With that nationalist agenda, what that means from a right-wing or a lack of integration point of view, again, we're probably likely to see some perseverance of the right-wing aspects of the threat, together with the single issues that crop up. The world seems to have got grumpy and while people have a right to protest peacefully, increasingly we're seeing those protests cross the line and increasingly with that line being crossed, we're seeing various terrorism offences sort of woven in, which I think moving forward, you know, we really need to be clear about what we call terrorism and what we don't get confused with by having some terrorist connotations to it. It's not an easy job and I think coming back to one of the things I probably said at the start, you know, you can't do it by yourself. So the partnership approach that is needed with counterterrorism policing, with the government, with the private sector, is really, really important to keep our realm as safe as we can.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Definitely. I think that's the question on most people's lips at the moment is: what is the threat? How do we even define it? And who do we define as that threat? So I think you're pretty spot on with what that's going to look like. Just a lot of, kind of, confusion and questions that need answering in the next, let's say, 5 to 10 years. But Andy, that's been fantastic and thank you very much for coming on. We've spoken about a lot, all the way from your time in the police and your time at university studying behavioural science, all the way through to your current role at The Shard. And I think that's a fantastic conversation that all of our listeners are going to really enjoy. So thank you very much for coming on today.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
Ollie, it's been a pleasure and I apologise now for dragging you into the question and answer session and hopefully the interview style is not going to cause too much pain on the editing decks.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
No, it should all be good Andy. Thank you very much for coming on.
Guest Expert – Andrew Donaldson
It's been a pleasure. Thank you very much.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
Thanks.
Threat Analyst – Oliver Hair
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